It’s a quote we’ve all heard: ‘To be or not to be…that is the question.’
Well, with apologies to William Shakespeare and his impressive writing resume, we’re going to update that quote this week on the PGA Tour.
The proper quote should be: To play or not to play (the week before the Masters)…that is the question.
For a lot of players, this week’s Tour stop, the Valero Texas Open being played at TPC San Antonio, is the final chance to play before the year’s first major.
For others, it’s a great week to skip and fine-tune their game as they get ready for that trip down Magnolia Lane.
There’s also a third group: Those who aren’t in the Masters and get another chance to get into that prestigious field next week rather than teeing it up on the Korn Ferry Tour.
Let’s take a look at who might have to reschedule their travel plans and head to Augusta after Sunday’s final putt as we break down Valero Texas Open odds.
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Valero Texas Open odds: McIlroy the favorite
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who calls Texas home, played last week at the Texas Children’s Houston Open and finished T-2. He’s one of those who is skipping this week’s tournament.
But, don’t despair. There are four of the world’s top 10 players using this week as a warmup for the Masters.
That includes No. 2 Rory McIlroy, the favorite at .
While McIlroy is an obvious choice, we’re not sure where his head will be this week so we’re going to stay away.
One, he’s not having the kind of year we’re used to seeing from him.
He has an impressive 24 PGA Tour titles on his resume as well as 118 top-10 finishes.
That’s all well and good, but in five events in 2024, the results are anything but impressive. He has just one top-20 finish, a T-19 at the Players Championship.
And two, he has to be looking ahead to next week where he, for the umpteenth time, is looking for a Masters victory to complete his career grand slam.
Will the chase for a green jacket and that grand slam take away his concentration this week?
We’re not entirely sure if he’s sure.
Other big names this week includes the likes of Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa, and Max Homa so there won’t be a shortage of talent.
But with a lot of those players possibly also gearing up for next week, let’s look a little ways down the odds list for our choices this week.
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Defending champ Corey Conners odds at Valero Texas Open
Like we’ve done in events over the past few years, we always check out the defending champion. This week that might be better news than normal years with Corey Conners back to defend his 2023 title.
We’re looking at him at this week for the simple reason that he’s got two PGA Tour titles on his resume.
And, coincidentally, both of those victories have come right here as he won last year as well as back in 2019.
He hasn’t had a great year in the early going of 2024 but all it takes is one great week to get a player on the right track.
He is eight-for-eight in cuts made but has just three top-25 finishes.
But, two of those have been in his last two outings. He was T-18 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and followed that up with a T-13 at the Players Championship.
He’s trending in the right direction and at the odds we’re getting, we’re loving the chance of him picking up his third PGA Tour win at a place he’s very comfortable playing.
Valero Texas Open longshot bet to consider
To say Billy Horschel’s had a rough year would be an understatement.
But for Horschel, at this week, the game does appear to be trending in the right direction.
For 2024, Horschel’s made just five of eight cuts.
That’s not great, but when he is around for the weekend, there have been bright spots.
And that includes last week’s T-7 at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. And it wasn’t just finishing T-7 that was impressive, it was the way he got it done.
He finished the tournament with a final-round 64 (the day’s best round) to move up the leaderboard. That included an opening-hole bogey which he quickly followed up with four straight birdies.
He’s not currently in the Masters field but a win here would punch his ticket.
Related: Early betting odds and value picks for 2024 Masters
Valero Texas Open prop picks
We’re going with the bet that there will be a playoff at +300.
The reason is simple: There hasn’t been one since 2009 so we’re thinking it’s about time as there have been five winners by a single stroke that could easily have gone into a playoff.
We’re also going with an historical pick with this one: Charley Hoffman to be in the top 20 at .
Hoffman hasn’t had the greatest of years. In fact, he’s struggling.
He does have a T-2 finish at the WM Phoenix Open where he lost in a playoff but he’s coming into this week with three straight missed cuts.
But, and here’s the good news, he loves this tournament and this venue.
He won here in 2016 and was runner-up in 2019 and 2021 (both times when we picked him to win) and is the event’s leading money winner.
And finally, we are going to look at the bet the winner will not be in the final group at +175.
With the final hole being a par-5, it gives players chasing the leader the chance at a closing birdie — or perhaps even an eagle — that might give them the lead with the leaders still on the course.
