One of the most anticipated showdowns of the season is on the docket this week, as UConn and USC face off in a rematch of the 2024 Elite Eight in Hartford, Conn. Both teams boast top-10 offenses and defenses, per Her Hoop Stats, which generally indicates a national title contender.
During the preseason, this game was billed as a battle between the two projected favorites for national Player of the Year: Paige Bueckers and JuJu Watkins. However, another player has usurped the two in that conversation, the same one who helped deliver the Huskies and the Trojans their lone losses of the season. Both Bueckers and Watkins were outplayed by Hannah Hidalgo in their matchups against Notre Dame, as Hidalgo has earned pole position in the NPOY race.
GO DEEPER
Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo has UConn’s number (again)
It is far too early in the season to arrive at any conclusions, but to have three players putting together such solid cases is a stark contrast to how the race has borne out over the last two seasons. With Lauren Betts and Madison Booker also leading national title hopefuls (UCLA and Texas have top-10 offenses and defenses, too), Hidalgo might not even be the favorite for much longer. The relative parity among teams atop the rankings also extends to the best players in the country.
That adds even more intrigue to a marquee matchup between UConn and USC. In addition to getting a pre-tournament test, each team’s star could use a big performance to make up ground on Hidalgo.
Dropped out: Iowa (21)
Almost famous: Iowa, Utah, Vanderbilt
Three rising teams
Southern California
While Kiki Iriafen adjusts to her offensive role at USC, her frontcourt partner Rayah Marshall has been expanding her skills. Marshall always has been a dominant defensive presence, and that hasn’t changed as a senior. Her block percentage is in the 99th percentile nationally, and she deters even more shots. Opponents are shooting a preposterous 23.9 percent with Marshall as the primary defender, as she can defend the post and cover ground on the perimeter. USC’s defense is 16.7 points per 100 possessions better with Marshall on the court.
But Marshall has become more versatile offensively this season. Playing next to Iriafen, who excels near the basket, has forced Marshall to start possessions on the perimeter. Marshall isn’t exactly a threat to shoot from long distance, as she’s made two field goals outside of the paint all season (though one of those did come against Elon on Sunday). However, her drive game has improved, and that enables her to get into the lane, collapse the defense and dump the ball off to Iriafen. Check out how Marshall creates the easy look for Iriafen on these two possessions, the second one coming after a trademark block on the other end.
As a center, she has the third-most assists for USC, behind only Watkins and Talia von Oelhoffen. Marshall had a below-average assist-to-turnover ratio her first two seasons at USC and a below-average assists rate last year, but she has now become one of the most efficient frontcourt passers. The Trojans need that ability from Marshall to create space for Iriafen to work. If those two can amplify each other, that raises USC’s offensive ceiling.
Kentucky
Georgia Amoore’s 3-point shooting has fallen off of a cliff this season, as the career 35.3 percent shooter is making a quarter of her attempts from beyond the arc. As the alpha and omega of Kentucky’s offense, Amoore needs to be an individual scoring threat for the Wildcats to win games against good opponents. Against North Carolina two weeks ago, Amoore missed all five of her 3-point attempts, and Kentucky was routed by 19 points.
But it appears Amoore is rediscovering her groove. In the Wildcats’ two wins last week, the fifth-year guard shot 5 of 14 from deep, a significant improvement from her horrific start to the year, and she was particularly crafty in the midrange against Purdue, as Kentucky won its first true road game of 2024-25. The Wildcats ran Amoore off the ball, using her as the screener in some inverted pick-and-rolls; she was able to turn and face against a bigger defender and use her speed to dust them on the way to the hoop.
been fun to watch Kentucky workout how they want to attack zones this season
Really good offensive team, but has gotten gummed up by zone a bit to start the year
Loved the counter yesterday against Purdue. Take the ball out of Amoore’s hands, and get her to the nail pic.twitter.com/r8mMxHprMM
— Mark Schindler (@MG_Schindler) December 15, 2024
Kentucky got off to a slow start against the Boilermakers, scoring 2 points in the first seven-plus minutes. Amoore then scored 13 points in the next 10 minutes to flip the early deficit into a 3-point lead. Amoore has already been an outstanding floor general and playmaker for the Wildcats, averaging a career-best 7.2 assists per game. Kentucky could make some noise in the SEC if she adds the shooting.
Georgia Tech
The last unbeaten team in the ACC is Georgia Tech, an outcome no one would have predicted coming into the season. The Yellow Jackets have quality wins over South Dakota State, Oregon and now on the road against North Carolina, when they were an absolute buzzsaw in the first half.
Georgia Tech works hard to win the possession battle. The Yellow Jackets attack the offensive glass and don’t turn the ball over, which results in 12.8 more shot attempts per game than their opponents. With that margin, they wouldn’t even have to shoot all that well to win, but their effective field-goal percentage ranks in the 86th percentile nationally — thus the 11-0 record, which is the best start in program history. They also don’t rely too much on any individual players; seven Yellow Jackets average at least 20 minutes per game but none exceeds 30, and they’re fourth among power conference teams in bench points behind South Carolina, Texas and Tennessee.
What stood out in their win against the Tar Heels was that nothing seemed anomalous. They put a lot of pressure on the rim in the half court and in transition, with Tonie Morgan and Zoesha Smith being good at scoring in the paint. Dani Carnegie is as good as any freshman in the ACC and is threatening a 50/40/90 shooting season while leading the team in scoring. They’re active on defense and speed up opponents, even if they don’t force turnovers at an elite rate. And they play hard, which is where the depth comes in handy. After 11 games, it’s time to wipe away those preseason projects. Georgia Tech is no longer a fluke and far better than the 10th-best team in this conference.
Two falling teams
Texas
This is nitpicking for the Longhorns after they won two games by a combined 69 points this week, including on the road against Richmond, which is 25th in the NET. But something about Texas’ offense is nagging at me.
Madison Booker is the only consistent scoring threat, and her offense is reliant on some difficult shots, which, to her credit, she makes at a high clip. But the Longhorns are a little isolation-heavy and don’t take many 3-pointers, which limits their upside against the best teams. Ideally, Aaliyah Moore or Laila Phelia would be that secondary offensive force behind Booker, but neither has popped this season. It doesn’t help that the paint is supremely crowded, even more so now that Rori Harmon — who isn’t regarded as a shooter — has replaced Shaylee Gonzales in the starting lineup.
Against the Spiders, Texas forced 24 turnovers and took 20 more field goals but won by only 10. It resembled its season-ending loss to NC State in 2023-24, when the Longhorns also had a plus-20 field goal advantage, but lost by 10. Even though advanced stats say Texas is excelling on offense, the process looks too challenging, and it’s something to keep an eye on as the SEC slate begins.
Iowa
The Hawkeyes keep putting on a show, but they need to figure out how to close out games. A week ago, they unraveled in the fourth quarter against Tennessee, surrendering a 14-1 run in their first loss of the season. Sunday against Michigan State, Iowa blew a 9-point lead and allowed a 14-0 fourth-quarter run. Those two games did sandwich a Hawkeyes comeback against Iowa State, but that ending was more about the Cyclones’ struggles than Iowa.
The turnovers are getting out of control for the Hawkeyes, who are giving the ball away on 25 percent of possessions in the clutch. This has come despite Iowa’s often going small down the stretch and playing with more ballhandlers. Instead, the Hawkeyes have struggled to control possession and compromised their defense in the process, as the lineups with Hannah Stuelke at the five don’t get enough stops. Some of the giveaways are just comical, such as an errant pass that landed in coach Jan Jensen’s hands in the final period against Michigan State.
Iowa has some younger players this season, but the turnovers are coming from their veterans — Lucy Olsen had seven against the Spartans, and fellow senior Kylie Feuerbach had five. Stuelke and senior Addison O’Grady are combining to average 4.9 turnovers from the frontcourt spots. With the Hawkeyes’ fast-paced style, some mistakes are expected, but this level of carelessness cannot continue in the Big Ten.
(Photo of Rayah Marshall: Meg Oliphant / Getty Images)
