Why Man United are not as bad as they seem: Stats show Ruben Amorim deserves some praise — and patience

You can see why Ruben Amorim didn’t want to take charge of Manchester United until next summer.

After warning that a storm would come, the Red Devils head coach suffered five defeats in his next seven games in all competitions. They exited the Carabao Cup and found themselves in the bottom half of the Premier League table on Christmas Day for the first time in history. After a 2-0 loss to struggling Wolves on Boxing Day, United have been decried — yet again — as the worst collection of players and staff in the club’s illustrious history: each performance a nadir, each result abject humiliation, the team derided as somehow being worse than the vintage of 1972-1974 that finished third-bottom and then suffered relegation.

As they prepare to end 2024 against a resurgent Newcastle United, there’s little end to the pessimism. They could end December with six defeats to their name, having last year lost five times in the 12th month of the year for the first time since 1933. They could be five points from the drop zone. They could endure comparisons with the Christmas period of 2015/16, when Louis van Gaal oversaw a run of eight games without a win in the space of a month that included four straight losses to Wolfsburg, Bournemouth, Norwich City and Stoke City (and, frankly, remains their poorest run in terms of performances of the whole post-Sir Alex Ferguson era).

It’s all just so, so bad. Isn’t it?

Well, perhaps not.

It might sound like the most desperate of straw-clutching, but the underlying stats from United’s recent games — and, in fact, Amorim’s short period in charge overall — point to things being a little bit less awful than you might think. They may also (whisper it) suggest that the storm may soon pass.

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Why Man United are not as bad as they seem

First, let’s be clear: this is not a good season for Manchester United. It’s a long, long way from a good season. In fact, it’s so far from a good season that you can’t even see what a good season looks like. The good season is a dot to you.

But there’s no point lambasting the new boss and his players for being the worst of the past 50 years when, objectively, that isn’t true — at the moment, at least.

No longer worse than Expected

According to Opta data, in the first nine games of the season under Ten Hag before he was sacked after the loss to West Ham on October 27, United only scored eight goals — a figure that put them third-worst in the league, ahead of only Southampton and Crystal Palace (both six). Their expected goals figure over those same nine matches was 14.78, meaning they should reasonably have expected to score nearly 15 goals in that period. That -6.78 difference between actual goals scored and xG was the worst in the division in that time frame.

There was a similar frailty at the other end. United conceded 11 goals in their opening nine league matches, and although only six teams had a better defence over those matchdays, United’s expected goals against (xGA) tally was 15.4, the sixth-worst in the division. Again, the difference between the expected and actual figures — -4.4, in this case — was the biggest in the league.

Biggest Premier League xG, xGA differences to October 28, 2024

In other words, across those first nine games of the season, United were the worst in terms of making the most of goal-scoring chances and the extent to which they rode their luck when it came to not conceding at the other end.

Since then, things have started to level out.

In Amorim’s first seven league games in charge, United scored nine goals — a figure that puts them joint-ninth in the division. However, those goals came from an xG figure of 8.5, meaning they are scoring roughly the amount they should have expected to based on the chances created. They may not exactly be free-scoring — far from it, in fact — but they are proving more efficient in front of goal than they were. Chance-creation needs to improve, but if it does, the trend suggests that the goal tally will increase, too.

Their defence would appear to be more porous under their new head coach — only Tottenham, Southampton and Leicester City have conceded more than United’s 12 during Amorim’s time in charge to date — but their xGA is down at 8.61 (only two teams have a greater difference between those valus). That indicates they have been conceding more than they realistically should have based on the chances their opponents have fashioned.

Biggest Premier League xG, xGA differences since Ruben Amorim’s first game

This points to a certain degree of bad luck for the new man in charge. It also suggests things will even out if United largely continue on this path and, crucially, reduce the number of individual errors that have plagued them of late.

Mistakes are ruining Amorim’s plans

To borrow from Oscar Wilde: conceding one Olimpico in a season is unfortunate; to concede two in a week is (astonishingly) careless.

Those two goals direct from corners in the Carabao Cup loss to Spurs and Premier League defeat to Wolves were critical moments in those matches, and yet so unlikely that nobody watching could scarcely believe they had happened. They were indicative of a team that, while appallingly vulnerable to set-pieces, is also experiencing a fair amount of misfortune — or, at least, a fair amount of setbacks about which the man in charge can do very little.

Implausible as it sounds, United have statistically been much better in recent games than their results suggest.

In the 3-2 home loss to Nottingham Forest, United had 71 per cent of the possession, 17 shots to Forest’s 11, more than double their shots on target (seven compared to three) and 1.60 xG compared with 0.83. The win at City may have required a dramatic late twist centred on a mistake and a penalty, but United again won the xG battle (1.29 to 0.95 even with Fernandes’ penalty removed), had the same number of shots as their hosts (10, three on target), and created three big chances to City’s zero.

It continued at Spurs. Falling 3-0 behind and getting a lifeline through goalkeeping errors doesn’t exactly paint a positive picture, but again, United had more possession (56 per cent), more than double the attempts (20 to nine), far greater xG (2.56 to 0.67) and 41 touches in the opposition box compared with 24. It was the same against Bournemouth: two thirds of the possession, more than double the shots (23 to 10), double the big chances (four to two), non-penalty xG of 2.28 against 0.84, and 45 touches in the opponents’ box compared to 14. And while the Wolves defeat ended in relatively even stats, United were ahead in all of these metrics before Fernandes’ foolish second yellow card, and the hosts’ goals came directly from a corner and in a 99th-minute breakaway as the 10 men of United chased an equaliser.

None of this is to say things are definitely going to improve over their next three games against Newcastle, runaway league leaders Liverpool, and Arsenal away in the FA Cup third round. It should, however, give fans at least a little optimism; a modicum of belief that, while the storm rages, there is some light on the horizon.