If history has taught us anything, it’s that the NBA Cup is about momentum. The tournament is held early enough (it starts on Oct. 30 and ends on Dec. 16) that the winner is oftentimes nowhere close to the best team by the end of the year.
Neither the Lakers, who won in 2023, or the Bucks, who won in 2024, made it out of the first round of the playoffs. Both got hot at the right time and had the star power to carry them to the finish line.
Who will be the hottest team through December? The unique single-elimination format of the tournament makes predictions difficult. I’m trying anyway. Here’s who I think is advancing through each of the group stages, and who will ultimately prevail in the knockout segment of the tournament. All odds courtesy of BetMGM.
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NBA Cup Group Play predictions
East Group A odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cavs | +105 |
| Hawks | +200 |
| Pacers | +600 |
| Raptors | +800 |
| Wizards | +2500 |
The Hawks and Pacers have both been disappointing to start the season. The Hawks haven’t quite figured out how to use their new pieces, while the Pacers are simply looking for anyone healthy to throw on the floor.
That makes the Cavs an easy pick to win East Group A. They’re already projected to be the best team in the East, and they’ve cruised out of the gate even without Darius Garland. They’ve already proven to be a regular season juggernaut over the previous few seasons. This one should be no different.
East Group A prediction: Cavs winning
East Group B odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Magic | +210 |
| Pistons | +275 |
| Sixers | +275 |
| Celtics | +375 |
| Nets | +2800 |
This is the weakest group in the tournament. The Nets are playing for a top-three draft pick this summer and the Celtics look like a shell of themselves. Neither has much chance to advance.
The Sixers have opened the season with a shocking start, going undefeated through their first four games. Paul George hasn’t even suited up yet, so there is theoretically another level they can climb to.
The Magic have gone the other way, struggling to form any semblance of a half-court offense. Newcomer Desmond Bane was supposed to fix that problem. He hasn’t shot the ball well, nor has anyone on that roster.
I’m going with the Pistons by default. They haven’t looked like world beaters either out of the gate, but they’re getting great contributions from second-year player Ron Holland. Cade Cunningham is theoretically the best player in this group (although Tyrese Maxey has been better to start the year). He should get Detroit rolling.
East Group B prediction: Pistons winning
East Group C odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Knicks | -120 |
| Bucks | +360 |
| Heat | +600 |
| Bulls | +750 |
| Hornets | +1200 |
This is the toughest group in the East. The Knicks are a popular Finals pick. They look deeper and more versatile than last year’s squad.
The Bucks aren’t a great team due to their depth, but Giannis Antetokounmpo has been playing out of his mind to start the year and carrying them to wins. He did the same during their Cup victory last year.
The Bulls have been one of the hottest teams of the year, showing that they can compete with anyone due to their fast pace and waves of depth. The Heat are playing one of the most innovative offensive styles in the league, going away from pick-and-rolls and thriving.
The Hornets play no defense, but they don’t have to. LaMelo Ball’s creativity has led a powerful offensive attack. They’re a dangerous team, but a tier below the other four.
This group could go any direction. Out of respect to Giannis, I’m picking the defending champs. The Knicks should also take care of business.
East Group C prediction: Knicks winning, Bucks wildcard
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West Group A odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Thunder | -185 |
| Timberwolves | +310 |
| Kings | +850 |
| Suns | +1200 |
| Jazz | +3000 |
The Thunder have come out storming to the early-season dominance that we all expected. They’re the best team in the NBA, and it’s not close. They should easily win this group.
Can the Wolves beat up on the Kings, Suns, and Jazz enough to earn a wildcard spot? Suns owner Mat Ishbia was willing to bet The Ringer’s Bill Simmons during the preseason that Phoenix wouldn’t have the worst defense in the league. Four games into the season, they’re ranked no. 29. Ishbia is technically winning that bet, but not by much. The Jazz have been plucky, the Kings not so much.
Minnesota should come out of this too, even while missing Anthony Edwards for part of these games as he recovers from a hamstring injury.
West Group A prediction: Thunder winning, Wolves wildcard
West Group B odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Clippers | +200 |
| Lakers | +250 |
| Mavericks | +400 |
| Grizzlies | +500 |
| Pelicans | +1000 |
This is the weakest group of the tournament. The Lakers are a top-heavy team that has been missing LeBron James and Luka Doncic. Doncic should be back soon. LeBron is targeting a mid-November return.
John Collins has played well for the Clippers. Their other pieces haven’t adjusted quite as easily. They’re still taking some time to click. The Grizzlies are already missing several important pieces, but rookie Cedric Coward has been an instant contributor.
I don’t like Dallas or New Orleans to win this group. The Mavericks’ lack of point guard play has been a problem, and Cooper Flagg has been up and down. The Pelicans center depth has gotten so bad that they signed the 37-year-old DeAndre Jordan off the street to play immediately for them.
The Lakers should be healthy enough to clinch this group. Austin Reaves’ breakout should be enough to get by until Doncic and LeBron return.
West Group B prediction: Lakers winning
West Group C odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nuggets | +160 |
| Rockets | +250 |
| Warriors | +350 |
| Spurs | +550 |
| Trail Blazers | +1700 |
Here is the tournament’s group of death. All five of these teams are quality opponents.
The Nuggets are the favorites, and for good reason. Nikola Jokic is a popular pick for best player in the league, and they’ve gotten better with the additions of Cameron Johnson, Bruce Brown, and Jonas Valanciunas.
The Rockets have their own big-name newcomer in Kevin Durant, but their lack of ballhandling has been an issue with the season-ending injury of Fred VanVleet and replacement Reed Sheppard’s early defensive issues.
The Warriors have looked like legitimate championship contenders early. They’re a very old team, so who knows what they will look like at the end of the season when the miles start creeping up. For now, Stephen Curry is still the best shooter in the game, Jimmy Butler is the perfect complement, and they’re getting a version of Jonathan Kuminga that actually fits with their motion-heavy style.
The Blazers are the bottom-feeder of this group. They don’t deserve to be. Their intense defensive pressure has kept them competitive and made them one of the most annoying teams to face.
I’m going with the Spurs, who are playing much better than many anticipated. Victor Wembanyama has arrived as a top-five player. He should be in the MVP discussion at the end of the year. Dylan Harper looks like a great draft pick, and De’Aaron Fox is providing some veteran playmaking. They’re young and unproven, but that doesn’t matter as much in this format.
West Group C prediction: Spurs winning
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NBA Cup Knockout Rounds predictions
The Cavs have the continuity and depth to beat all of these other teams. Sure, they haven’t performed well in the biggest moments. Their playoff collapse last season looks a lot more understandable, though, when the Pacers proved how good a team they actually were.
Cleveland is ready to avenge that and many other postseason flameouts. They’re the best team in the East, and they should make it to the championship.
East winner: Cavaliers winning
The Thunder are the heavy favorites here, but they’ve had the longest season out of anyone and already won a championship. They have bigger fish to fry. San Antonio is a young team full of guys who could actually use the half-million prize money. Oklahoma City showed that size can be an issue for them in their loss in last year’s Cup Finals. Wemby could pose similar issues that Giannis did for them in last year’s Finals.
West winner: Spurs winning
A Cavs versus Spurs championship series would have the Cavs heavily favored. Cleveland has more depth, more experience, and better coaching. In a one-game series though, the best player oftentimes carries players to victory. Wemby is better than anyone on the Cavs. As Giannis did last year, he could carry his team to an unexpected win.
Championship winner: Spurs
