The Home Run Derby is as difficult as just about any event to predict. Last year’s winner, Dodgers slugger Teoscar Hernandez, entered with the third-worst odds in the field of eight, but he made it look easy in his first derby appearance. With no former champions in this year’s field, getting it right won’t be any easier.
New faces will be abound in Atlanta. Only the hometown hero, Matt Olson, has participated in the Home Run Derby before. Olson will be joined by two young stars in James Wood and Junior Caminero, a veteran in Byron Buxton, a late-blooming power bat in Brent Rooker, a firebrand in Jazz Chisholm Jr., the exit velocity king in Oneil Cruz and MLB’s home run leader in Cal Raleigh.
Raleigh threatened the all-time record for home runs before the All-Star break, but he isn’t the Home Run Derby favorite.
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Here are the betting odds and best bets for the 2025 Home Run Derby.
MORE: Does the Home Run Derby actually ruin players’ swings?
Home Run Derby odds 2025
All odds courtesy of BetMGM.
With no former winner in the Home Run Derby field this year, there is no clear betting favorite. Pirates CF Oneil Cruz, who is having the worst statistical season of the group, leads the way with +310 odds, while MLB’s home run leader, Cal Raleigh, is just behind at +360.
Cruz is batting only .204, but he hits the ball harder than just about anyone in the league. With less swing-and-miss potential in an event in which the pitcher is trying to make it as easy as possible to hit the ball, some will undoubtedly like his chances.
With Acuna out, James Wood now has the third-shortest odds at +475, while Olson joins the fray at +550. Byron Buxton, Brent Rooker, Junior Caminero and Jazz Chisholm are all seen as slightly longer shots,
Here’s a complete look at the 2025 Home Run Derby odds:
| Player | Odds |
| Oneil Cruz | +310 |
| Cal Raleigh | +360 |
| James Wood | +475 |
| Matt Olson | +550 |
| Byron Buxton | +900 |
| Brent Rooker | +900 |
| Junior Caminero | +1000 |
| Jazz Chisholm | +1400 |
MORE: Ranking the 13 greatest Home Run Derby performances in history
Home Run Derby picks 2025
Best picks to win 2025 Home Run Derby
All advanced stats courtesy of Baseball Savant.
Byron Buxton (+900): Buxton’s decision to join the Home Run Derby raised a few eyebrows because of his lengthy injury history, but he explained his son was a major reason why he decided to compete. That dad power certainly won’t hurt him on Monday.
There are also some legitimate reasons to like Buxton’s value at +850. When he gets ahold of the ball, he can hit some monster blasts. Buxton only has 20 home runs to Raleigh’s 36, but he and Raleigh are tied in “no doubters” — home runs that would go out in all 30 stadiums — with 15. That’s the highest no doubter percentage of any player with more than 14 home runs this season.
Buxton’s average exit velocity (91.5 mph) ranks 73rd in the league, but last year’s derby proved it’s not necessarily an exit velocity contest when Teoscar Hernandez (90.6 mph) won.
Buxton’s average home run distance is 409 feet, tied with Cruz for second among Home Run Derby participants. Only Wood ranks higher. A streaky hitter during the season, Buxton is the type of player who could get into a rhythm in Atlanta and have a hard time getting out of it, as long as his body cooperates.
MORE: Ranking the 13 greatest performances in Home Run Derby history
James Wood (+475): Wood’s odds have shortened a bit since Acuna’s exit, but there is still some potentially great value here. While he hasn’t competed in the derby before, that’s true of the entire field outside of Olson.
Wood ranks 16th in average home run distance, seventh in average exit velocity and third in average exit velocity among the hardest 50 percent of balls he’s hit. When he hits the ball hard, he hits it harder than anyone in this derby other than Cruz — and his raw strength should allow him to hold up for multiple rounds.
Notably, Wood’s launch angle of 5.9 degrees ranks 235th out of qualified hitters. Raleigh, for comparison, has an average launch angle of 24.8 degrees. Is that a red flag? Well, Hernandez won in 2024 while ranking 199th in launch angle, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ranked 188th in 2023. If Wood can hit so many home runs with an average launch angle that low, what happens when he starts trying to hit home runs on every swing? The answer is probably positive.
MORE: The longest homers in Home Run Derby history
Best prop bets for the 2025 Home Run Derby
Top prop bets will be posted as they become available.
How many home runs will be hit in the 2025 Home Run Derby?
The over/under for home runs at the Home Run Derby has not been set. After a record 341 home runs were hit in 2023, new rules contributed to a six-year low of 225 in 2024. The rules are the same as last year, so the over/under is much more likely to hover near that mark than anything in the 300s.
Starting in 2024, hitters became limited as to how many pitches they can face in the timed portion of each round. However, new bonus time rules eliminated a time restriction and instead gave players three outs to work with in the bonus period.
Truist Park has a park factor of 100, meaning it plays neutrally between hitters and pitchers.
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Here’s a look at how many home runs have been hit in each Home Run Derby since the event switched to a timed format:
| Year | Total HRs |
| 2015 | 159 |
| 2016 | 203 |
| 2017 | 191 |
| 2018 | 221 |
| 2019 | 311 |
| 2021 | 309 |
| 2022 | 291 |
| 2023 | 341 |
| 2024 | 225 |
MORE: Complete list of every Home Run Derby winner by year
