The first Clasico meeting of the 2025/26 season on Sunday provides an exciting chance to see how Real Madrid will handle a daunting matchup against Barcelona with Xabi Alonso now at the helm.
Los Blancos suffered defeat in all four meetings with Barcelona last season, which proved to be the last under Carlo Ancelotti. With the former Madrid midfielder now in charge, the Santiago Bernabeu will be expecting to end the losing streak to their greatest rivals.
Beyond the narrative between these two clubs, there are, of course, genuine competitive stakes in play as these two sides meet, as there always seems to be. Madrid lead the La Liga standings through nine games, while Barcelona sit in second just two points adrift. Thus, should either side claim victory on Sunday, they would finish the day top of the table.
With both teams having secured a win in Champions League play midweek, the time is now to put themselves in a strong position domestically as well with the season already over one-quarter complete.
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Who will win El Clasico? Real Madrid vs. Barcelona prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Barcelona (+220 on DraftKings)
- Score prediction: Real Madrid 1-3 Barcelona
As tempting as it is to predict a draw, with inflated odds and a difficult match to call, it’s just not a realistic outcome. Rivalry matches rarely end level, and El Clasico is a perfect example of such a phenomenon: these two sides have gone eighteen straight meetings without a single level scoreline.
With that in mind, Barcelona at over 2/1 moneyline odds are great value. While Madrid have improved under Alonso, they still struggle to grind out results against inferior teams, and they flopped hard in their earlier rivalry match this season, a 5-2 drubbing at Atletico Madrid. Sure, the Metropolitano is a tough place to play, but it’s not like Madrid are markedly better at home or worse on the road, and they were criticized for not embracing the moment after that match.
One team that usually rises to the occasion is Hansi Flick’s Barcelona, as evident by their four straight Clasico victories. They walloped Madrid 4-0 last time here at the Bernabeu, and even in their defeats this season they were statistically right there on level footing.
Until Real Madrid prove they can compete in big matches with this current squad makeup, fading them is the best option, especially at this strong value.
MORE: Predicted Barcelona lineup | How Real Madrid should start
| DraftKings (USA) |
|
| Real Madrid win | +105 |
| Draw | +310 |
| Barcelona win | +220 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -135 N: +100 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: -120 U: -120 |
| Real Madrid -0.5 goals |
-104 |
| Barcelona +0.5 goals |
-118 |
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona match facts
- Date: Sunday, October 26, 2025
- Kickoff Time: 5:15 p.m. local (11:15 a.m. ET / 8:15 a.m. PT)
- Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabeu (Madrid, Spain)
- Referee: Cesar Soto Grado
- Last meeting: Barcelona 4-3 Real Madrid (May 11, 2025 | La Liga)
MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona best bet
- Pick: Over 3.5 total goals
- Odds: -130 (DraftKings)
The odds are understandably shaded hard in favor of goals, but playing that side of the coin regardless is the way to approach the match, even at this high bar to clear.
Even taking into account Alonso’s preference to grind games down with possessional control, it’s likely that Flick’s high-risk pressing style will do its best to blow that up in midfield, creating transitional opportunities in both directions.
Last year’s four matches between these two sides saw a combined 23 goals scored, averaging 5.75 per match. This Real Madrid team found it difficult to deal with Barcelona’s attacking pressure even as they allowed their opponent to have the ball to avoid transitional opportunities; it’s hard to believe they can magically be press resistant while trying to keep possession in the Alonso tactical setup.
Real Madrid vs. Barcelona prop bet
Without knowing how Barcelona will line up in the attack given Raphinha, Marcus Rashford, Fermin Lopez, or Ferran Torres all could potentially play a part, the only place to lean is Lamine Yamal, where incredibly the betting market continues to criminally underrate the 18-year-old superstar.
Madrid will be sick of the sight of the Barcelona youth product, who logged three goals and two assists across last year’s four Clasico games. He scored once in each league meeting while providing a pair of assists in the extra-time victory in the Copa del Rey final.
He’s up to his usual tricks again this season, with a goal contribution in every single La Liga game he’s appeared, plus a goal in the 6-1 thrashing of Olympiacos just a few days ago. He is fifth in the Spanish top flight in total shots despite playing half the minutes of the four players above him, averaging over six shots per game, and he ripped off a total of 17 shots in the four games against Real Madrid last season.
Somehow, astonishingly, there are eight players in this match given a better chance to record a goal contribution, including Endrick and Gonzalo Garcia, neither of whom will play a significant part, if at all.
