Who are the biggest favorites in Champions League final history? Man City record vs. Inter still stands

This year’s Champions League final will be hotly contested, but there’s one club that most fans expect to come away with the trophy.

As Paris Saint-Germain meet Inter Milan on Saturday, the underdog will be keenly aware of their ability to contest for the European title no matter the pre-match narrative.

Italian giants Inter come into this match as the underdogs, but they’ve been here before not long ago and provided a stiff challenge despite the lead-up chatter.

The Sporting News brings you the details behind where this year’s matchup sits in terms of lopsided pre-match expectations in recent Champions League final history.

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Biggest favorites in Champions League final history

According to Oddsportal, the most lopsided Champions League final saw the 2023 match between Manchester City and Inter Milan as the largest disparity in pre-match betting odds in the history of the game, at least as far back as we have data, which goes back now 20 years.

Manchester City were installed as -225 (4/9) favorites to beat Inter Milan in 90 minutes of regulation for the 2023 Champions League final and were tabbed as -550 favorites to win the trophy in any manner, whether it be in regulation, extra time, or penalty shootout. They made good on that promise, as they emerged as 1-0 winners on a goal by Rodri in the 68th minute, but it was a battle the whole way through.

Prior to that, the largest pre-match betting favorite for a Champions League final was Barcelona in 2015, as Lionel Messi led the Blaugrana to a 3-1 victory over Juventus, coming into the game as -161 favorites on the three-way moneyline, or -323 to lift the trophy. 

The biggest pre-match betting favorite to lose a Champions League final across the 19 years of data was Bayern Munich in 2012, who were beaten by Chelsea 2-1 despite coming into the game as -143 favorites on the three-way moneyline and -250 to win the title. Chelsea, consequently, were +200 to lift the trophy and +340 to win in 90 minutes, the largest underdogs to emerge victorious.

Across the last 20 years, the match the betting market had the most trouble calling was the 2009 Champions League final between Manchester United and Barcelona, which featured star-studded squads on both sides of the field. Barcelona, as slight +175 underdogs on the three-way moneyline, lifted the trophy with a 2-0 victory behind goals from Samuel Eto’o and Messi, defeating the +161 three-way favorites Man United in Rome.

Champions League final odds 2025

While PSG are slight favorites in this one-off final, it appears the betting market has given Inter a much better chance of success this time around.

Both teams sport plus moneyline odds, while Inter Milan stand at +135 to win the title, a stark contrast from two years ago.

There’s also significant uncertainty in how the match will play out from a game flow standpoint. The odds are dead even on the goals total, meaning the betting market is unsure whether it will be a high-scoring thriller or cagey affair.

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