There were six NFL head coach openings, and now there are five.
One search ended in an expected place: Mike Vrabel will be the next coach of the New England Patriots. This was the likely outcome from the moment Jerod Mayo was fired, and the fit makes sense for reasons beyond the fact that Vrabel is a beloved former Patriot. As laid out in my story about how Vrabel spent the 2024 season, the Patriots fit what Vrabel was looking for in terms of ownership, organizational collaboration and — the most important one — quarterback.
A fun “what if…” exercise: Where would Vrabel have landed if the Patriots job hadn’t opened up? The Jets and Bears are the only other teams that interviewed him. If the Patriots hadn’t been an option, he probably would have taken an interview with the Raiders too. Vrabel and the Jets hit it off in their interview, and the Jets had the ability to offer him personnel control and a significant contract, but ultimately both parties knew a marriage was unrealistic once the Patriots entered the conversation. Now, instead of hiring Vrabel, the Jets are faced with the prospect of being tortured by him as a division rival (and with a quarterback, Drake Maye, that the Jets helped New England secure thanks to a meaningless late-season victory over the Patriots in 2023).
So where does this leave the Jets and the other four franchises with head-coaching vacancies? As this hiring cycle kicks into high gear, a look at how things could play out. These predictions are based on conversations with sources from around the league, as well as my opinions about what each team might be looking for.
Chicago Bears: Pete Carroll
Depending on a coach’s temperature about Caleb Williams, this is arguably the best job opening available. If there’s a downside, it’s that the new coach will be inheriting a GM (Ryan Poles) that he didn’t come in with — and Poles could be on the hot seat himself. But the Bears have a roster that appears ready to win now (with some tweaks, particularly on the offensive line). The defense finished 12th in EPA this season, while the offense was 26th.
The Bears have been floating “leader of men” out there since the end of the season. This has been one of the most unstable situations in the NFL for many years running, powered by — as with others on this list — ownership incompetence. The Bears would have had a shot at Vrabel in 2023 had they moved on from Matt Eberflus at the right time, but instead they stuck with him and wasted a solid rookie season from Williams (3,541 yards, 20 touchdowns, six interceptions — only one over his last 11 games). The Bears were one of the league’s worst teams when it came to situational football.
If the Bears are looking for a proven leader, there isn’t a better candidate than Carroll. Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is the sexiest name of this cycle (as he was for the last one), but nobody knows what sort of leader he’ll be as a head coach. Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is an obvious candidate because of his ties to Williams from USC, but Kingsbury was underwhelming as the Arizona Cardinals head coach. Ron Rivera has past experience and was a winner in Carolina, but the Commanders struggled under his watch.
Yes, Carroll is 73, but he is known for his youthful energy. He had a great run in Seattle, never winning fewer than seven games in a season, making the playoffs 10 times in 14 years and winning the Super Bowl in 2013.
The Bears will be tempted by Johnson and Kingsbury, but I think they ultimately land on the coach best suited to turn Chicago into a winner as soon as 2025.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Robert Saleh
This one might feel like it’s out of left field, but there’s some real buzz about Saleh’s chances of securing this job. Saleh might have been helped by Jets owner Woody Johnson’s decision to fire him in Week 5, especially because of what happened afterward. The Jets were significantly worse after interim coach Jeff Ulbrich took over, particularly on defense, where Saleh had built the Jets into one of the league’s Top-5 defenses in both 2022 and ’23.
Saleh was never able to overcome a lack of quarterback talent in his first few years, and Johnson wasn’t patient enough to let him get a shot at coaching a healthy Rodgers. Ultimately, he went 20-36 overall, and the Jets were among the NFL’s most penalized teams and typically among the worst offenses under his watch, but he also learned a lot from his Jets experience.
More importantly as it relates to the Jaguars job: Saleh has a lot of fans in the Jaguars’ building from his time as the linebackers coach from 2014-16. He’d also be inheriting a more talented roster in Jacksonville than he did with the Jets in 2021, starting at quarterback. No matter what you think about Trevor Lawrence, he’s an obvious upgrade over what Saleh had with Zach Wilson. The Jaguars have weapons on offense and some talent on defense.
This isn’t a hiring that would get a lot of positive reviews around the league — especially if they pick him over the likes of Johnson, Brian Flores, Liam Coen and Todd Monken — but it’s considered a serious possibility.
Las Vegas Raiders: Ben Johnson
Buzz has been building about the idea of Johnson getting the Raiders job, especially with minority owner Tom Brady seemingly running things. The Raiders will be willing to throw a lot of money at Johnson and give him the space, and time, to build something. Johnson has been very selective when it comes to these jobs. The Raiders don’t have a viable quarterback option in place and might have won too many games to get a real shot at the draft’s top-two prospects, Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward (Vegas has the sixth pick). But if Brady can sell Johnson on building something together, Johnson might be willing to commit.
It’s also entirely possible Johnson sits out another cycle or waits for a team with a better quarterback situation, like if the Cowboys don’t reach an agreement with Mike McCarthy, or if things go sour in Philadelphia and the Eagles move on from Nick Siranni. But if Johnson wants to take a job now, this might wind up being his best option — and the Raiders want him. Keep an eye on Carroll for this job too.
New Orleans Saints: Aaron Glenn
Glenn is beloved in New Orleans for his time as their defensive backs coach from 2016-20 under Sean Payton, and he spent his final year as a player there, in 2008. It feels like a safe bet that he lands in either New Orleans or New York. The Saints job doesn’t look especially appealing on paper, especially because of their poor cap situation and lack of a long-term solution at quarterback. But Glenn is likely more open to the Saints job than some of the other top candidates, and it doesn’t hurt that he has an endorsement from Drew Brees (and would get one from Payton if the team called him).
“I love Aaron Glenn,” Brees told Yardbarker. “Everybody in the organization loves Aaron Glenn. He played for us in 2008 and then he was a coach on our staff for several years. As a defensive coordinator, highly respected, a leader of men. Everyone loves him, highly competitive and he’s a great teacher.”
Brees continued: “He’s coached with Sean Payton, he’s coached with Dan Campbell, when you talk about culture builders, he’s been around guys that know how to do that. I think he would be a great choice.”
The biggest question Glenn has to answer: Who would his offensive coordinator be? If not Glenn as head coach, keep an eye on Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver and Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady.
New York Jets: Brian Flores
There’s been an assumption that, if not Vrabel, the Jets would automatically turn to Glenn. It’s logical for a few reasons: Glenn was a Pro Bowl cornerback for the Jets in the ’90s, he has fans in the Jets building and he’s viewed as a culture setter. He also was lauded for the work he’s done turning the Lions defense into one of the best in the league, and holding steady after the unit was besieged by injuries to key players.
But Glenn has never been a head coach, and the Jets will have legitimate competition from the Saints. Plus, while he is definitely under consideration, I’m not sure he’s the Jets’ No. 1 target. Flores hasn’t interviewed for the Jets job yet (he will this week) but I think when he does, he’ll win them over with his plan for turning things around, just as he won over Vikings players and turned the defense into one of the NFL’s best.
Flores learned a lot from his time in Minnesota, as detailed in Michael Silver’s recent profile, and there is reason to believe he’ll be a better head coach his second time around. The Jets would likely add Vikings executive Ryan Grigson as general manager if they hired Flores, and the two already have a positive working relationship.
The Dolphins went 24-25 under Flores, with two winning seasons, before he was fired. In his last two years combined, Miami ranked fourth in defensive EPA, though 26th in offense EPA — so his offensive coordinator hire would be a crucial piece. It’s believed Vikings quarterbacks coach Josh McCown, a former Jet, would be a top candidate to be Flores’ play-caller.
As for the rest of it: Flores would bring a lot of what the Jets need in their next head coach: experience, a high football IQ and a proven ability to hold players and coaches accountable, which is something the Jets have talked about for a long time but never really enacted. As a bonus: A few Jets players I’ve spoken to sounded very excited at the prospect of Flores taking over.
(Photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
