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What do Chelsea need to qualify for Club World Cup Round of 16? Permutations for Enzo Maresca after Flamengo humiliation

Chelsea suffered a damaging defeat to Flamengo in Philadelphia to leave their FIFA Club World Cup hopes in the balance.

Pedro Neto gave Enzo Mareaca’s side an early lead slightly against the run of play at Lincoln Financial Field and the Blues remained 1-0 to the good at halftime.

But Chelsea collapsed in the face of probing second-half pressure from their Brazilian opponents.

Flamengo boss Filipe Luis — who spent a season at Stamford Bridge and won the Premier League in 2014/15 — enjoyed the Midas touch as substitutes Bruno Henrique and Wallace Yan scored either side of Danilo giving the Mengao a 65th-minute lead.

To compound matters, shortly after Flamengo went ahead, Nicolas Jackosn was sent off for a reckless lunge. The 3-1 defeat has big implications for Chelsea’s qualification hopes.

What do Chelsea need to qualify for Club World Cup Round of 16?

Chelsea have three points on the board and still have their fate in their own hands thanks to an opening 2-0 win over LAFC.

If they beat Esperance de Tunis in their final group game then they are through, no questions asked.

However, the UEFA Conference League winners can likely only progress as Group D runners-up because tournament rules mean the result between two teams is the first tiebreaker in the event of sides finishing level on points.

So, if Chelsea were to beat ES Tunis and LAFC stun Flamengo, they would be level on points and still finish behind the Brazilians, even if they had an inferior goal difference. 

If the latter theoretical result followed an LAFC win over Esperance, and the MLS team, Chelsea and Flamengo all finished on six points, then goal difference in the games played between those three teams would settle first and second.

In that admittedly unlikely event, Chelsea could still top the section and avoid a probable knockout clash with Bayern Munich.

Second place is far more probable and will be guaranteed with a win over Esperance, while a draw would be enough if LAFC fail to beat the Tunisian outfit when they meet in Nashville on matchday two.

If Chelsea lose to Esperance, they would likely be out of the competition, unless LAFC have beaten the North Africans before losing to Flamengo. In that scenario, the Brazilian group winners would have nine points and we’d be into goal-difference calculations from the matches featuring Chelsea, Esperance and LAFC.

In short, win their final game and Chelsea are through, almost certainly in second place. Draw it and they’re through unless LAFC close with back-to-back wins. Lose it, and they’re in a world of trouble.

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