Road teams have been the play in the NBA conference semifinals. Entering Thursday night, road teams are 6-1 straight up.
It makes for good theatre. And when people complain about so many threes being shot in the NBA these days, I find it comical. Shooting threes is the great neutralizer and gives you results like 6-1 on the road. Teams shoot a lot of threes to try to win games. Isn’t that what you want your team to do?
There’s only one game on the NBA calendar Thursday, with Golden State, sans Steph Curry, on the road in Minnesota, up 1-0 in their series.
Warriors at Wolves Game 2 Odds
Golden State is getting 10.5 points Thursday with the spread at 201.5. I was curious to find the last time Golden State was getting double-digit points. It happened in January when the Warriors were playing the second game of a back-to-back in Indiana, and Curry, Draymond Green, and Andrew Wiggins all sat. Indiana won by 12 and covered.
Minnesota is 4-2 against the spread in the playoffs, while Golden State is 4-4. The Warriors are 14-17 as underdogs this season and have – interestingly – won the last three games when they were underdogs against Minnesota.
I have a hunch on the over tonight. Five of the Wolves last six playoff home games have gone over, and games at the Target Center average 223.6 points.
Warriors at Wolves Game 2 Preview
The big story out of Game 1 was the Curry injury. He played 13 minutes and scored 13 points before pulling up with a hamstring strain. I know they are saying a week, but hamstrings usually take longer than that. My guess is that if Golden State leads the series 3-1, he may rest for a while longer.
The Wolves team that we saw in the first-round win over the Lakers didn’t show up in Game 1. Golden State threw a zone defense at the Wolves, who bricked their first 16 three-point attempts and only made five for the whole game (I stand by my belief that 3s made is the most important stat in today’s NBA).
Anthony Edwards only had one point in the first half. Buddy Hield did his best Steph Curry impression with a team-high 24 for Golden State, and Playoff Jimmy Butler returned with 20 and 11.
Golden State has won the last four games between these two teams and covered all four. The average margin of victory in the four games is 7.5.
Warriors at Wolves Game 2 Prediction
Don’t be confused by the biggest storyline in Game 2: no Curry. It’s different for Minnesota entering the game knowing he’s not going to play. It means they can adjust their defensive rotations accordingly. Minnesota can focus on Butler.
Offensively, Minnesota has to exploit its advantage inside. Rudy Gobert had 27 in the series clincher against LA, but had just nine in Game 1.
Golden State is 8-3 in the playoffs without Curry, but we all know that Golden State is a different team without him. I like Minnesota to win this one easily. There’s no way the Wolves shoot as badly as they did in Game 1, and my instinct is that the Warriors will be content with their one road win and want to get home and get healthy.
The Pick: Minnesota -10.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
