When the Minnesota Vikings decided against using their franchise tag on quarterback Sam Darnold this week, the thought around the NFL was that his market was a bit lighter than originally projected.
That seemed to change on Friday night, however, after the Las Vegas Raiders agreed to a surprising trade, sending a third-round pick to the Seattle Seahawks for quarterback Geno Smith.
The Raiders had been searching for a veteran QB, and Darnold was expected to be high on their wish list for 2025 free agency. Now, following Friday’s blockbuster move, the expectation is that Darnold will land with the Seahawks on a multi-year deal, per Dianna Russini of The Athletic.
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Swapping out Smith for Darnold does make sense for Seattle, as Smith was entering a contract year with a rough $25 million cap hit for 2025. He’s due for an extension, but at the reported asking price of $45 million annually, you can’t blame the Seahawks for declining. Darnold is almost seven years younger and should be in the $40 million per year range on a three-year deal.
The stage appears to be set for Seattle to sign their next quarterback, but not so fast, says Garrett Podell of CBS Sports. In what would be a bold — and full-circle — move, Podell predicts that Darnold will return to the team that drafted him No. 3 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Here’s why Podell sees Darnold spurning the Seahawks for the New York Jets:
So why would Darnold go back to the team that had him scarred and seeing ghosts? For the simple reason that things are different in New York now. There’s a new regime in place with head coach Aaron Glenn and general manager Darren Mougey. They have a legit No. 1 wide receiver in Garrett Wilson and a nice running back tandem in Breece Hall and Braelon Allen. More resources have been invested along the offensive line in recent years and that trend will likely continue.
New York’s new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand comes over after working as the Detroit Lions passing game coordinator under Ben Johnson in the league’s highest-scoring offense. The allure of playing with nice weapons and a fun play caller will lead Darnold to make a Jets homecoming to heal the wounds that occurred early in his career.
The Jets may have a new regime in place entering 2025, but the franchise is still just as much of a dumpster fire as it was when Darnold arrived there. He had an excellent 2024 season with the Vikings, but is he really poised to be the Jets’ savior? Probably not.
Darnold landed in an excellent situation in Minnesota, supported by the NFL’s Coach of the Year in Kevin O’Connell and a supporting cast that included superstar Justin Jefferson along with Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones. He was set up for success, and while he deserves credit for crushing it, it’s hard to see him choosing the Jets as his encore. It would probably be best for both sides to look elsewhere.
Seattle just released a franchise icon in wide receiver Tyler Lockett, and the team has been taking trade calls on DK Metcalf. We’ll see how that shakes out in the coming days, but Seattle still has a formidable running back duo in Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, and one of the NFL’s rising young stars at receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
This is the NFL, so you can never say never. But in a vacuum? Seattle’s the better landing spot for Darnold (if it’s not a return to Minnesota), and it’s not really all that close.
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