In what should be one of the most dramatic sports exhibitions of the entire year, the USA will face Canada in Thursday’s 4 Nations Face-Off Championship Game. It’s a rematch of a heated Saturday bout, which started with Canadians booing the “Star-Spangled Banner” and the USA dropping its gloves and fighting Canada nine seconds after the puck dropped.
The Americans brought the heat in that intense preliminary game in Montreal, winning 3-1 to the collective shock of a fired-up Bell Centre crowd. Now, Canada must win the final on foreign ice: a raucous TD Garden in Boston, MA. Buckle up, hockey fans.
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The early odds favored Team USA as favorites to win the inaugural 4 Nations title, but as of Tuesday afternoon, the match was a total coin-flip on BetMGM: -110 on both sides. USA’s -1.5 puck line carries +220 odds, while Canada’s +1.5 is juiced up to -275. The over/under is 5.5 goals — with plus odds on the over and -120 on the under.
Translation: everyone and their motha’ expects this one to be a knock-down, drag-out affair that goes down to the wire. Thus, we’ll need to dive deep into this one before placing any bets on either side of the line or total.
Let’s dive right into the most up-to-date odds for USA vs. Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off Championship.
USA vs. Canada 4 Nations Championship odds, puck line, over/under
All odds and props are from BetMGM.
- Moneyline: USA -110 | Canada -110
- Puck line: USA -1.5 (-220) | Canada +1.5 (-275)
- Over/under: O 5.5 (+100) | U 5.5 (-120)
Many analysts and fans expect a hard-fought and often-desperate battle between USA and Canada, and these odds suggest the same. The -110 odds on either side make this a literal coin-flip, with the -10 serving as the book’s vig or juice (the cost for placing the bet).
The puck line yields no value whatsoever either way — betting USA to win by two goals seems risky, and Canada +1.5 at -275 is far too much risk for a minuscule reward.
The OVER with plus odds has already tempted tons of bettors — it accounts for 72 percent of BetMGM’s over/under bets — but it could be a sheep slaughter if this game turns into a defensive battle.
USA vs. Canada best bets and final score prediction
USA star Jake Guentzel played the role of national hero on Saturday when his two goals helped America prevail over Canada in round-robin play. The Tkachuk brothers also played a pivotal role, but the unsung heroes were goalie Connor Hellebuyck (25 saves) as well as defensemen Brock Faber and Jacob Slavin.
The U.S. will be looking to pick up where it left off over the weekend, but the Canadians will have something to say about that. Canada had 26 shots on goal on Saturday, besting USA by three shots, but it couldn’t make up for the Americans’ unexpected levels of raw physicality.
Canada will likely still bring its customary brand of fast-paced, high-IQ hockey, just with a bit more physical aggressiveness this time around. In no way, shape or form will the Canadians take this U.S. team lightly on Thursday, especially on the ice of the TD Garden.
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Look for Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid to have strong outings, after combining to score three goals in Canada’s final-clinching round-robin win over Finland. The Canadians were up 4-0 at one point in the game and ultimately prevailed 5-3. MacKinnon and McDavid should benefit from the absence of USA defenseman Charlie McAvoy, who played a key role in the Americans’ win on Saturday but suffered an injury and consequential infection.
This game will basically boil down to Canada’s offense vs. USA’s defense, and whether Canada’s D can step up to slow down the Americans’ charge. St. Louis Blues goalie Jordan Binngington has been asked to do a lot for Team Canada, and fatigue might have been setting in on Monday when he allowed Finland to score three straight goals.
Ultimately, we can’t possibly go against USA with coin-flip odds on home ice in what should be a raucous Boston atmosphere. The Americans are playing for much more than bragging rights — national pride is on the line, and many on the U.S. side clearly took offense to the Canadians’ booing the National Anthem. Look for USA to seal the deal and come away with a hard-fought victory in the first-ever 4 Nations Championship.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: USA 3, Canada 2 — USA barely ekes by Canada, winning but failing to cover the puck line, while the score stays UNDER the tight 5.5 over/under.
Mavs vs. Warriors top player prop bet
Connor McDavid, F, Canada: Anytime goal scorer (+230)
McDavid might be the best hockey player on Earth, and he certainly doesn’t care about away-game nerves or the physicality of Team USA.
The superstar forward had a goal and an assist in Canada’s 5-3 win over Finland on Monday, and he scored the lone Canadian goal on Saturday when the US prevailed 4-1. He’s the best bet to score a goal in this game, win or lose, and we love that we’re getting +230 odds on him.
