As the biggest game of the club calendar, the UEFA Champions League final needs no introduction.
Yet even so, the 2025 matchup between Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan presents a mouth-watering litany of tactical clashes and storylines for fans to enjoy before, during, and after the match itself.
Having reshaped their squad entirely following the relative failures of Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, and Neymar, PSG search for their first-ever European title with their new-look team led by Ballon d’Or candidate Ousmane Dembele.
Inter, meanwhile, have reached their second Champions League final in the last three years, having fallen in the 2023 title match to Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City on a goal by eventual Ballon d’Or winner Rodri. Redemption for Simone Inzaghi would be sweet, with Inter falling short on the European stage since Jose Mourinho’s famous treble in 2010.
The Sporting News previews this titanic matchup with European glory on the line, the winner to be remembered for decades and the loser consigned to a footnote in the annals of football history.
MORE: Latest team news and injury updates ahead of PSG vs. Inter Milan
PSG vs. Inter Milan prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Inter Milan (+240 on DraftKings)
- Score prediction: PSG 1-2 Inter Milan
- Best bet: Inter Milan to win either half (+110 on DraftKings)
This matchup provides a delicious battle between two head coaches amongst the most unheralded in European football. Luis Enrique has been brilliant this season for PSG, crafting a title contender out of a squad constructed in unconventional fashion.
Yet Inzaghi is maybe the most deserving of the glory that comes with a Champions League crown, as the Italian has quietly been one of the best managers in Europe over the last five years. Inter’s performance in the 2023 UCL final against Man City was undeserving of defeat, as they held one of Europe’s most potent attacking units to just seven shots worth 0.99 expected goals, compared to Inter’s 14 shots worth 1.68 xG largely on the counter.
Inzaghi has turned Inter into one of Europe’s defensive giants, but they are also the most adaptable team in the world. Having conceded the fewest goals in the Champions League prior to their semifinal matchup with attacking juggernauts Barcelona, Inter transformed into a devastating counter-attacking side, beating Hansi Flick at his own game with a 7-6 aggregate victory.
While not direct comparisons, PSG are, on a basic level, a slightly shakier version of Barcelona. If Inter can do what they did to Barca, there’s no reason to suggest they can’t also craft a similar result against a slightly less venomous and slightly more fragile PSG.
| DraftKings (USA) |
|
| PSG win | +115 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Inter Milan win | +240 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -145 N: +110 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: -120 U: -125 |
| PSG to win the title |
-170 |
| Inter Milan to win the title |
+135 |
PSG vs. Inter Milan match facts
- Date: Saturday, May 31, 2025
- Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: Allianz Arena (Munich, Germany)
- Referee: Istvan Kovacs (ROM), VAR: Dennis Johan Higler (NED)
- Last meeting: None (First meeting)
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PSG vs. Inter Milan best bet
- Pick: Highest scoring half — 2H
- Odds: -105 (DraftKings)
In recent Champions League history, there has been a clear intention for teams to keep the match within reach across the early stages of the game.
Dating back to the 2015/16 Champions League final, a span of nine title matches, there have been 19 total goals scored. Of those, only five were scored during the opening 45 minutes. Five of those nine finals were scoreless at the halftime break.
It’s been an even bigger trend in the most recent games. Of the last six Champions League finals — all of which finished under the 2.5 goal total — there were just two first-half goals compared to six after the break.
We’re shying away from the under, which sits at -125 and has the potential to fall thanks to the chaos both teams provide, but late drama is far more likely than early.
PSG vs. Inter Milan goal-scorer bet
- Pick: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to score or assist a goal
- Odds: +120 on FanDuel
While Dembele is the superstar in this PSG attack, putting himself in serious Ballon d’Or contention this season, the France international has a terrible matchup in this game. Often attacking down the right, Dembele will be up against one of the world’s best defenders in Alessandro Bastoni. The Italian was heroic in the semifinal second leg against Barcelona, forcing teenage star Lamine Yamal to take nine shots worth just 0.39 xG, while also creating just a single chance for his teammates.
Instead, we’re backing Khvicha Kvaratskhelia on the opposite flank, who should find ample space behind the attack-minded Denzel Dumfries and either Yann Bisseck or Carlos Augusto at the back. Kvaratskhelia is hampered slightly up front by how much defending he contributes, but even so, he has been immense for PSG up front since joining from Napoli.
He has, incredibly, never logged a single goal contribution in six career games against Inter before, but he’s been unlucky in those matches, which include a 3-0 Inter win in late 2023 that saw “Kvaradona” take three shots and create five chances for teammates to no return. He’ll be a likely breakthrough candidate in this match, especially after scoring twice against Auxerre in PSG’s final Ligue 1 match of the season.
PSG vs. Inter Milan prop bet
One of the most enjoyable elements of this match promises to be the goalkeeper battle, as Gianluigi Donnarumma and Yann Sommer have been two of the best in their position in Europe this season.
Both individuals were utterly heroic in their respective semifinals, with Donnarumma making eight saves across the two legs against Arsenal while Sommer logged an outlandish 19 stops through 180 minutes against Barcelona.
Even while conceding six goals to Barca, Sommer still managed to be worth 1.01 xGOTA in net, meaning he prevented more than a goal above what the metrics expected. Donnarumma, for his part, was even better, conceding just one goal to Arsenal while facing 3.86 xGOTA worth of shots on target.
Both of these teams are experts at logging a high shot count, so both goalkeepers should be heavily involved. While you can get Donnarumma to make 3+ saves at plus odds, we’ve gone for one tier higher given that Inter are quite efficient at testing the opposition goalkeeper even while not maintaining a high possessional count against more intense attacking sides.
PSG vs. Inter Milan longshot bet
These odds seem like nothing short of a gift from the heavens. Inter should be able to clear this extremely low bar without much difficulty in a match with enormous implications that could get bogged down in a tactical battle.
Only injury-stricken Real Madrid were shown more yellow cards during this year’s Champions League tournament than Inter, being shown 30 bookings. They sported the fourth-lowest fouls per yellow card, meaning their fouling has also not been well-placed.
The referee for this match, Istvan Kovacs, is no stranger to these matches and won’t be afraid of his whistle. The Romanian has refereed three PSG games in the recent past, showing nine cards to Parisien players across that span, including a second booking for Dembele in the 1-0 defeat to Bayern Munich back in November. Kovacs also brandished seven total cards in last year’s Europa League final, meaning he’s not afraid to stop a title match to dish out punishment.
You can get over 2.5 cards at +175, but we’re on an even greater total for a high-intensity match with significant stakes and a referee not afraid to go to his pocket.
Nobody — and I mean nobody — has been whistled for more fouls in the 2024/25 Champions League competition than Joao Neves, who has been called for 23 infractions, four more than any other player. While he’s only been booked twice for those offences, it’s notable that he has caught the referee’s attention to such a degree.
Both sides lack physicality in midfield, but with Inter likely to play on the counter through dangerous attacking players like Marcus Thuram up the middle, Neves will be a candidate to be forced into making tactical fouls that would be vulnerable to yellow cards.
On the flip side, Dumfries is a prime candidate to pick up a booking, as he will be matched up against foul machine Kvaratskhelia. The Georgian winger absolutely cooked Jurrien Timber in the first semifinal leg against Arsenal, and as a result has won more fouls per Champions League match than anyone else on the pitch in this game.
Dumfries, for his part, has been clumsy, whistled for 19 fouls in Champions League play, tied for the second-most of any player behind only Neves. While he got away without a booking, he was whistled for four fouls in the league-phase win over Arsenal at home by referee Kovacs, meaning the man in charge will be well aware of his propensity for crossing the line.
