Fair or not, players aren’t drafted solely on their film. Some profiles will have helium with an impressive pre-draft circuit, others will stumble their way to April with a slow 40-yard dash. Players will be taken off boards for reasons that will never be public and drafted earlier than expected because of a niche scheme fit.
If Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson declares, he’ll do so with a handful of yellow flags attached to his profile. He’s a one-year starter, a cautionary first-round tale in itself. He’s also currently listed at 6’2″, 208 pounds, one of the smaller early-round passers in recent memory.
By the end of his rookie contract, a left-tailed outcome would give evaluators plenty of reasons to explain away his demise. And yet, his film is good enough to hand-wave concerns, thrusting him into the conversation for QB1 and helping save this quarterback class.
Ty Simpson does his best work under pressure
Simpson doesn’t have the game-breaking physical tools of LaNorris Sellers or the preternatural ability to stretch the field like Fernando Mendoza. He isn’t Garrett Nussmeier, the class’s top pre-snap passer, and he might have less upside than preseason Heisman favorite Arch Manning.
What separates Simpson is his poise. His ability to remain composed and accurate in collapsing pockets is second to none among this crop of passers, and it has sent his stock soaring into Round 1.
Simpson is strong within structure, consistently avoiding turnover-worthy plays and keeping the offense on schedule. He does so without falling into conservative traps that hinder upside, allowing him to transcend the game manager moniker and stretch the field enough to keep defenses honest. He’s comfortable within the timing of Alabama’s offense, and his ability to properly react to stimuli within the pocket allows him to keep that operative window open.
Likewise, Simpson has plenty of short-area athleticism to maneuver within the pocket and avoid rushers. He finds escape routes well, both by stepping up into the pocket and rolling to either side.
I still can’t get over this throw by Ty Simpson on 4th down. The poise and ball placement 🔥 pic.twitter.com/GAYm1Zu1us
— Joe Broback (@JoeBrobackCFB) October 13, 2025
Simpson’s nuance exceeds his experience here, too. When flushed out of structure, Simpson regularly keeps his eyes downfield. He’ll continue to manipulate linebackers with the threat of a scramble and open late windows to check downs and freelancing wide receivers. When necessary, Simpson is happy to move the chains on the ground, as evidenced by his three games with 30+ scramble yards in the first half of the season (via PFF).
For a passer without many starts to his name, Simpson has had plenty of opportunities to flaunt high-difficulty throws on money downs with defenders in his face. And he keeps making the most of them.
Maybe he’s running hot under pressure, winning unsustainably and destined to hit some speed bumps on Sundays. I’d prefer to think this is a blend of instincts and processing showing out on an SEC stage.
Where must Simpson improve?
Simpson is winning with his intangibles, and he’s at his best when testing tight windows downfield, counterpunching pressure by prying open vertical windows. Yet, he’s doing this without true top-end arm strength. That inherently limits his ceiling, although that’s admittedly a matter of splitting hairs between “very good” and “great.”
The flashes are tantalizing, but there’s an argument to be made that Simpson has less arm talent than several of his early-round counterparts. He’s more generally accurate than precise in the quick game, leaving after-the-catch production on the table and becoming prone to a few more misses than one would like.
His footwork isn’t always pretty, although his lower half is in sync with his eyes enough to mitigate concern. Perhaps as he transitions to the next level, becoming more consistent in his drops will help the eye test match the production he has found within the structure of the offense.
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One part of his physical profile that I cannot confirm is his hand size. Simpson has three fumbles entering Week 9 action. That’s not a nail in his NFL Draft coffin, but if subpar hand size adds another word of warning to his profile, coughing the football up will get further scrutinized. In either event, Simpson can do a better job of protecting the football when under duress or trying to make plays with his legs.
While Simpson keeps winning under duress, it’s also fair to wonder how much of this he’s bringing onto himself. He’s currently averaging over 3.00 seconds in time to throw, a concerning mark and one that could be tied to his processing. How that number changes as the season rounds into form and more SEC defenses attempt to limit him could play an outsized role in his pre-draft hype. He can stand to be a little quicker to the flat and a little more aggressive on his first read, even if his time to throw is more a matter of playmaking than processing.
Simpson’s NFL projection
At this point, Simpson’s rise is impossible to deny. He’s well within the first-round conversation and seemingly a lock to be a top-50 consensus prospect. He could very well be the first quarterback taken in this class, and some team is bound to have him as their QB1 (if not multiple).
Winning in the ways he does buys Simpson some leeway to find success in suboptimal conditions at the next level. He’s less reliant on quality offensive line play, and while anyone can pick up bad habits, his ability to mitigate pressure lends itself to early playing time.
Likewise, Simpson has enough tools to make plays without the pre-snap answers to the test. As an inexperienced passer, there are bound to be bumps in the road. It’s no surprise Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels found instant success after dozens of college starts. Simpson won’t have that advantage, which could push a team towards a bridge quarterback. I’m not sure that will be necessary.
Simpson’s small sample size offers him a wide range of outcomes, but his current skill set looks like an above-average starter. If his signature trait is a superpower, he can leave that projection in the dust. If late-season struggles show him to be more volatile than his midseason success, there is plenty of time to recalibrate expectations. For now, he’s earned every right to be in the first-round quarterback conversation, and as he stares down dates with LSU, Oklahoma, and the College Football Playoff, the stage is set for him to cement his stock.
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