Travis Kelce has been almost as important to the Chiefs’ dynastic run over the past half-decade as anyone, and the pop-culture world has been rooting for the stud tight end since his relationship with Taylor Swift turned him into a household name. Just like he did last year against the 49ers, the future Hall of Famer should generate plenty of betting action in Super Bowl 59 against the Eagles.
Of course, the collective interest in Kelce player props isn’t just because casual bettors like rooting for more cutaways to Tay-Tay in the luxury suite. It’s because Kelce has established a reputation as one of the most clutch pass-catchers in NFL history. With the most career 100-yard playoff games (9), the most postseason catches (174), and 206 yards shy of the most postseason receiving yards, he’s put himself alongside Jerry Rice in the conversation of greatest postseason pass-catcher.
MORE SUPER BOWL 59 BETTING:
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Of course, savvy bettors know that the more popular and history-making players almost always see inflated over/under projections. It’s imperative to weigh out the value of both sides of each player prop and avoid blindly smashing Kelce’s OVER props because of the profound success he has achieved in past playoff runs.
That’s where we come in! Let’s head over to DraftKings Sportsbook and uncover Kelce’s player props for Super Bowl 59 between the Chiefs and Eagles, then analyze each one for value and unveil our best bets.
Travis Kelce prop bets for Super Bowl 59: Catches
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kelce OVER 6.5 receptions: +123 | Kelce UNDER 6.5 receptions: -154
Kelce’s decline in game-to-game dominance has already been baked into these over/under projections, as well as the corresponding odds. Bettors couldn’t dream of getting plus odds on Kelce to haul in seven catches last year — he was projected between 7.5 and 8.5 on most books, and the over was almost always coupled with juiced-up odds (he finished with 9 catches for 93 yards in the victory over the 49ers).
Casual bettors might take the bait and smash-bet the OVER. Savvy bettors will wait for that action to either bump up the over/under or knock down the juice on the UNDER. The Eagles’ elite defense surrendered just 68 total catches to tight ends this season, averaging out to just four per game. That tied them with the Lions and Commanders for the fourth-fewest TE receptions allowed in the NFL.
No matter which way you slice it, the best value bet here is the UNDER. Kelce is coming off a two-catch, 19-yard AFC title win over the Bills, and Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will do whatever he can to avoid letting the 35-year-old go off for 80-plus yards and a TD as he did against Philly in Super Bowl 57 (side note: he still only had six catches in that one). Go UNDER once the -140 drops to -120, or when the projection bumps from 6.5 to 7.5.
Sporting News best bet: UNDER 6.5 receptions (-154)
MORE EXPERT SUPER BOWL 59 BETTING ADVICE:
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Travis Kelce prop bets for Super Bowl 59: Receiving yards
Kelce OVER 61.5 receiving yards (-112) | Kelce UNDER 61.5 receiving yards (-109)
As noted in the catches section, Philadelphia’s defense stifled tight ends all season. But the Eagles’ average yards-per-game surrendered to TEs tells the story even more. Philly only gave up 34.8 TE receiving yards per game — 591 on the season — which easily ranked No. 1 in the NFL.
Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown both played big roles in Kansas City’s conference title win. And considering how dominant the Eagles were against down-field and across-the-middle pass-catchers all season, Patrick Mahomes will likely need to go to those speedy wideouts in end-around, screen passes and gadget plays.
It’s hard to envision Kelce racking up 62 yards, a number he failed to hit in 11 of Kansas City’s 18 games since the start of the season. Stay safe and fade the high-profile player’s OVER here.
Sporting News best bets: Kelce UNDER 61.5 receiving yards (-109)
Travis Kelce prop bets for Super Bowl 59: Touchdowns
Kelce anytime TD: +145 | Kelce 2+ TDs: +1000 | Kelce first TD scorer: +1000
Kelce’s anytime TD prop at +145 seems worth a half-unit, considering he has 20 touchdowns over his 24-game postseason career — and 19 TDs over the 19 postseason games in which Patrick Mahomes was under center for the Chiefs.
You could also go for a lotto-ticket wager with Kelce to score two-plus touchdowns or to score the first TD, but those seem too risky. An $11 wager to win a hair under $27 if Kelce scores seems like a worthwhile bet without too much risk or volatility. Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson both scored against Philly in the divisional round, and Kelce is Mahomes’ favorite red-zone target of all time.
Sporting News best bet: Kelce anytime TD (+145)
