In this betting preview:
ATLANTA, GA—Week after week, I am consistently asked how we bet against Scottie Scheffler. How do you pass a Winnebago on a one-lane highway? You don’t. Accept they aren’t going away and enjoy the ride. That’s the case with the No. 1 player in the world.
I reported Ted Scot wasn’t working last week, and Scottie still won. Ted is back this week. Scheffler was arrested a couple of hours before his PGA Championship tee time. He shot 66 that day and finished eighth at Valhalla. I can remember a time when Tiger had zero distractions, and it was impossible to bet against him. Scottie Scheffler is going to win the Tour Championship, and there’s nothing the 29 other players can do about it.
Scheffler enters the final event having won five of his past 10 starts. He’s the statistical leader in about 300 categories, and first in strokes gained and being a great person. Scottie’s rise to supremacy matches Read the Line’s timeline very closely. My first year covering the TOUR full-time from a betting perspective was 2022. Remember the playoff putt against Cantlay on Super Bowl Sunday? Scheffler then wins three of his next five starts, including the Masters.
Fast forward to the current day, and it takes endless dedication to create winning cards with him in the field. I love the challenge, and cannot wait to produce a winning week in an event most handicap pundits simply overlook.
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Tour Championship 2025 best bets
Best bet to win: Scottie Scheffler (+150 on DraftKings)
The best player in the world realizes the moment. Scheffler is not going to let this one get away. Eight players in 18 years have multiple playoff wins in the same postseason campaign. Scheffler will make nine in 19 years and become the first repeat FedEx Cup Champion.
Best bet to place in the Top 10: Cameron Young (+110 on DraftKings)
In his last three starts, Young has finished 11th at the BMW, fifth at the St. Jude, and won the Wyndham. That Greensboro victory stands out. Not just because he won by six, but because it happened on a target-driven Bermudagrass layout. Cam’s game fits, and with the Ryder Cup Captain’s pick looming large, we know he will be driven to perform in Atlanta.
Best head-to-head bet: Maverick McNealy over Keegan Bradley (-110 on DraftKings)
Bradley was passing out Ryder Cup tickets on Monday and revealing team uniforms. In one week, Keegan is making his six Captain’s selections. Those decisions, phone calls, the Today Show, it all adds up to a major distraction.
McNealy just finished third at the BMW and still has a chance to be one of those choices next Wednesday (if he plays great). I believe he will stay motivated and win the tournament match this weekend. Unfortunately for Maverick, come next Wednesday, Bradley will win his spot on the team.
Tour Championship 2025 betting odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings. Showing odds shorter than +9000.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Scottie Scheffler | +150 |
| Rory McIlroy | +850 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +1400 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1800 |
| Russell Henley | +2000 |
| Justin Thomas | +2500 |
| J.J. Spaun | +2500 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2500 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2800 |
| Viktor Hovland | +2800 |
| Sam Burns | +2800 |
| Cameron Young | +3000 |
| Sepp Straka | +3000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +3500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +3500 |
| Ben Griffin | +3500 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +3500 |
| Maverick McNealy | +3500 |
| Harris English | +4000 |
| Corey Conners | +4000 |
| Harry Hall | +4500 |
| Justin Rose | +5000 |
| Chris Gotterup | +5000 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +5000 |
| Shane Lowry | +6000 |
| Brian Harman | +6500 |
| Sungjae Im | +8000 |
| Nick Taylor | +8000 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | +10000 |
| Andrew Novak | +12000 |
Tour Championship 2025: Betting preview
Even though the players came in ranked one to 30, all of them start at even par on Thursday. If Jacob Bridgeman shoots the low 72-hole score, he wins it all. For the last two weeks, the cutoffs have MEANT something. The top 50 coming out of Memphis made you a signature player. Top 30 gets me in three major championships, another year on TOUR, and an opportunity to compete for the PGA TOUR’s richest prize.
You’ll hear a ton of hyperbole from the critical pundits, but it is true. After 15 straight weeks of losing strokes on approach, if Sungjae Im wins, he’s the FedEx Cup Champion. It’s all pretty crazy when you think about it.
On property, I get a sense that even the players are trying to rationalize each possible result. There’s no event next week; no top-20 cutoff. For all 30 players, this is their final week. I cannot wait to watch them all leave it on the course.
Some players just aren’t in good form. Those that are, it’s time to go. My gut feeling is that Scheffler will not let this moment get away, but golf is a funny game. Tournament officials have made some changes. Andrew Green’s 2024 renovation has been modified after three players finished 20 under par last year.
The scorecard has been adjusted from a par 71 to a par 70. The 14th hole will be played as a 4 in 2025. The official yardage is now 7,440. We have an average green size of 6,238 sq/ft. The putting surfaces are covered in Bermudagrass, the fairways in Zoysia, and it is all surrounded by Bermudagrass rough. Starting strokes are gone, and I would be the last person to bring them back. All of my research focuses on the gross winners of this tournament over the past 10 years (starting strokes were used from 2019 to 2024).
The average winning score was 17 under par over the last five years. Two of those years, there was a tie for the lowest 72-hole score, and that has been included in my calculations. Could you imagine a tie on the PGA TOUR? Walking the grounds last year and this week, there’s no doubt the changes made by Green make the place better for the average golfer. For the 30 best players of 2025… it is easier than it was before bulldozers.
In both incarnations, this is a BoB event. Those same seven winners over the past five years averaged 22 sub-par scores in the year they won. Last year, the greens were brand new and had some bounce. Half the field still finished 10 under par (or better).
The forecast is also a recipe for record-breaking scores. The golf course is moderately soft. You’ll see balls rolling in the fairway, but that’s due to the slope of this property and not the firmness of the fairways. East Lake received an inch of rain (plus) over the weekend, and we expect storms each day of the tournament.
The skies unloaded on Tuesday around 5:00 pm ET. Come to the hot, humid southeast in August, and that’s what you get. The greens are pure to putt, and guys will be able to stop the ball on approach. That combination means it will take a deep number to earn the PGA TOUR’s ultimate prize. Vegas has set the winning score over/under at 17.5 under par. I like the under 262.5 based upon the turf conditions. The greens had a ton of bounce last year, and three guys got to 20 under par.
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Tour Championship 2025: East Lake Golf Club course overview
For years, everyone referred to this week as a season-ending money grab. For the last six years, the TOUR has given an advantage to the best player(s). Before the starting strokes era, FedEx Cup points were still part of the equation. After 18 editions, we may be getting close to a suitable solution. All 30 players start even par this week. No points, no strokes, no advantage, unless maybe you are the No. 1 player in the world.
The purse is $40 million, and the winner receives a check for $10 million. The low player after 72 holes of individual stroke play takes home the hardware. There are 30 different scenarios in play, from a Jacob Bridgeman victory to Scottie winning back-to-back and in back-to-back weeks. It’s worth noting, no player has ever repeated as FedEx Cup Champion. If Scheffler were to win, it would cap off a third straight career year for the Texan.
Scottie has entered East Lake as the FedEx Cup points leader each of the last four seasons; this year included. Yet, Scheffler only has one FEC title. The other 29 players are good, and golf can be a fickle game. If another player were to take down the betting favorite, how could it happen?
Looking through past leaderboards, I didn’t see a significant change after the Andrew Green renovation. If anything, the layout probably got better for the average amateur and easier for the TOUR’s annual best. Half of the field was double digits under par after 72 holes. Attacking East Lake requires a stereotypical strategy. First things first, pay attention to the Bermuda triangle. What is ELGC’s version of the Atlantic’s mystery zone? Step one, keep the ball out of the Bermudagrass rough. The recent career strokes gained leaders in Atlanta are Russell Henley, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, and Collin Morikawa.
The instant you read those names, you think about precision ball striking. That’s what it takes to win at East Lake (and beat Scheffler). The average winning score without any strokes over the last decade is 15 under par. Soft course conditions, and that number will be even lower. When attacking Andrew’s advanced green complexes, you must play from the Zoysiagrass fairways for two reasons. One, great ball strikers differentiate themselves from Zoysia, and two, if you plan on making 24+ sub-par scores, you will need some proximity to the hole. Year after year, the best drivers excel at East Lake. It sounds simple, but if you could find the fairway at TPC Southwind two weeks ago, you certainly have my attention.
East Lake has always been a great approach examination. Long, difficult par 3s, terrain changes with mid irons, and a bunch of scoring shots with a wedge. Contending takes acumen with the full complement of clubs. I tend to combine the best approach players with their ability to score on par 3s and 4s during par 70 weeks. I asked Tommy Fleetwood during his press conference about being a good par 70 player. Fleetwood’s response, “I guess I’m just better when there’s fewer birdie chances.” The best par 70 scorers can go low in a variety of ways. You don’t have to look far for those players; the last two weeks have also been par 70 leaderboards. Recent form, scorecard savvy, and excellent spin/trajectory control are essential at East Lake.
Bermudagrass putting, a bit of scrambling thrown in for the par 5s and short 4s, and we have our leans. The problem is, we still need to decide what to do with Scottie Scheffler. Five wins in 10 starts, and the last one came without his caddie. The number one skill I’m leveraging this week is “the moment.” All 30 guys are all-in. If we can judge strokes gained pressure, then we know who handles it best. The player who can compartmentalize their emotions and limit distractions. I wonder who that may be… Limited to 30 choices, I’m taking the best one. I’ll cover my investment with some strategic prop and placement opportunities so we can maximize the haul when Mr. Inevitable arrives. If we save a couple of units, then we will spend them on Procore in two weeks. As for now, I’m taking Scheffler and a guaranteed sweat come Sunday.
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 41 outright wins and covers the TGL, LPGA, and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, and Twitter.
