The famous wrestler Sting, in describing his character change in 1996 from a clear babyface to a darker, enigmatic character, offered the perfect axiom about predicting the future. Noted the Stinger: “The only thing that’s for sure about Sting is nothing’s for sure.”
This would be the same for sports media. There are some trends that look obvious (increased investment in women’s sports media; legacy media consolidation and layoffs; Netflix becoming a bigger sports player; more media leaning into sports betting revenue), but who knows? Still, we bring you some guesses for 2025.
1. Tom Brady will walk away from broadcasting before the start of the 2025 NFL season
I’ve previously said I’d put down big money that Brady will not finish his 10-year, $375 million contract with Fox, given all his various business interests away from broadcasting, including ownership. That remains true. The safer prediction would be that Brady walks away from his Fox deal after three or four years. But I’m going bold and saying Brady gets deeper involved with the Las Vegas Raiders in the offseason and decides to go all in with NFL ownership and his production company by the start of the next NFL season.
2. WNBA viewership will go up in 2025
This isn’t a moment for women’s sports; it’s been a movement for some time. Game 5 of the WNBA Finals — a 67-62 overtime thriller won by the New York Liberty — averaged 2.15 million viewers, the most-viewed WNBA Finals game in 25 years. The finals averaged 1.6 million viewers, up 115 percent over last season. It capped a fantastic year of viewership for the league — and this is where we absolutely mention that the catalyst for the viewership explosion was interest in Caitlin Clark. Overall, there were 32 WNBA television windows among its media partners that topped 1 million viewers during the 2024 season, including the WNBA Draft. That crushed the previous record of 15.
Next season will see new partners NBC and Amazon Prime Video as part of a long-term TV rights deal, and you should expect them to invest serious marketing dollars. Under the new agreements, Disney, NBC and Amazon will distribute more than 125 regular-season and playoff games nationally each season, including a minimum of 25 regular-season games on Disney platforms, 50 regular-season games on NBCUniversal platforms and 30 regular-season games on Amazon Prime Video. The league will also get a bump from a new franchise (Golden State Valkyries) and more offseason exposure for star players thanks to the new 3-on-3 women’s basketball league, Unrivaled, launching in January 2025.
Clark’s star will continue to rise, and if you think bad-faith actors knocking her for culture-war points are going to have an impact on viewership, I’d refer you to those who predicted NFL viewership was forever done. It’s arrow up for the WNBA.
3. ESPN Flagship will be an immediate hit
ESPN’s direct-to-consumer streaming service, code-named “Flagship,” will allow consumers to access the entire suite of ESPN networks without a traditional pay-TV subscription. That includes the full programming lineup of ESPN+ and what currently airs on linear ESPN. There will also be integration with ESPN Fantasy and ESPN Bet. Reports indicate a starting price of between $25 and $30 per month, and the price point is what I think will attract consumers initially. I think early subscriber numbers will exceed expectations, especially given recent big increases at YouTube TV.
The research firm MoffettNathanson, which provides trends in media, communications and technology to institutional investors, put out a note this month projecting that “after an initial investment of $75 million in FY (fiscal year) 2025 to get the service up and running (anticipating a launch at the tail end of FY 2025 in time for the start of the NFL season), we project an initial one million paid subscribers in FY 2026, driving subscription revenues of just over $200 million and ad revenues of $20 million.” I predict that number is higher by FY 2026.
4. Kevin Harlan will call NBA games for Amazon Prime Video
Ian Eagle has an agreement in place as one of Amazon’s lead broadcasters, and I predict Harlan joins him. A 1-2 game-calling combination featuring Eagle and Harlan will give the streamer massive instant credibility in the live-game space.
5. ESPN will opt out of its current MLB contract after the 2025 season
This is probably as close to a layup prediction as it gets. MoffettNathanson said opting out could save Disney/ESPN as much as $600 million in expenses, although most expect a restructured contract. Will ESPN get local games for Flagship?
6. UFC will be split between ESPN and Netflix
No inside intel from me — just a guess that UFC ends up echoing WWE and lands with both Disney and Netflix for its product. And thus begins Netflix going in big on sports rights.
7. ESPN finally commits to a dedicated women’s basketball daily studio show during the WNBA season
You have a transcendent audience draw in Clark, a litany of interesting All-Stars from A’ja Wilson to Kelsey Plum and an appetite for storylines both on and off the court. If ESPN wants the credit for building women’s basketball in America, as it always does, this isn’t even up for discussion given the multiple outlets it has. If this isn’t something that exists next year, the network should be crushed for it.
8. The Pac-12 will land at least one name-brand media company for its media rights
In November, the Pac-12 announced that Octagon will serve as the agency of record to guide the conference through the media-rights landscape. That signals to me that someone with some weight is going to bite, and I’ll take a flier that it will be WBD Sports, whose 2024 was defined by losing rights to the NBA on TNT. The 2026-27 season has Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Gonzaga, San Diego State and Utah State joining Oregon State and Washington State. The league needs one more football-playing school to reach the threshold to remain recognized as a conference within the FBS division.
9. ESPN rents an active player or coach for the NBA Finals
It’s been clear for some time that ESPN management does not want a two-person booth for its NBA Finals coverage. It’s also clear that the network desires a notable name (e.g., Milwaukee Bucks coach Doc Rivers) to sell on the marquee.
Who could that be? My colleague Andrew Marchand posited in this piece in June that ESPN should already be courting the likes of LeBron James or Steph Curry in the event they would ever considering broadcasting. That’s an interesting long-term play. What I think is very likely for 2025 is someone such as Chris Paul becoming a guest game analyst for the Finals. Longtime NBA coach Monty Williams would also be an interesting one-off.
(Top photo: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
