In this betting preview:
What can I say — I’m excited to get started! The Sentry begins year two of no longer being the official “tournament of champions.” That’s right: if you missed it last year, you no longer have to win an event for a ticket to Kapalua. The field of 60 players consists of 31 tournament winners and 29 players from the final 2024 FedEx Cup top 50.
It still does mean something to someone, as all eight of the FedEx Fall champions are on property at the Kapalua Resort. The PGA TOUR has traveled to Kapalua’s Plantation Course since 1999. For 25 years, the PGA TOUR has started their season on the island of Maui.
Our defending champion is Chris Kirk, who won in a shootout 365 days ago at 29 under par. The Plantation Course is a par-73 scorecard measuring nearly 7,600 yards. The third-longest course on TOUR, players will need to manage their efforts across this five-and-a-half mile walk.
The average winning score in the last five years is 26 under par. Three par 3s, four par 5s, and 11 par 4s really create a scoring setting. Each of the par 5s is reachable and eight of the 11 par 4s are under 425 yards. As you head to Kapalua, pack a bunch of birdies.
This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Sentry winners, finishing positions, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
The Sentry 2025 expert picks and predictions
Best bet to win: Collin Morikawa (+1200 on bet365)
It’s week one of the 2025 season, let’s not overthink this. Collin Morikawa has seven top 10s in his January career. He’s one of those guys who definitely grinds throughout the holidays.
In five Sentry starts, he has not finished worse than seventh and had a chance to win the last two years. Collin can putt these greens, and his iron game will return in 2025. That combo alone makes him a favorite for every event he tees it up!
Best bet to place in the top 10: Sungjae Im (+175 on FanDuel)
Another case of let’s not try and outsmart ourselves. Sunjae Im has four starts at Kapalua and three top 10s. His fourth finish was a T13. Excellent on Bermudagrass, the powerful Im can drive it long enough and score from close range.
Im’s around-the-green proximity is ranked seventh in the field. Sungjae succeeds at Kapalua because he scores from close range on the eight par 4s under 425 yards and four par 5s. With ten places over the four rounds, Im’s a contender (and a casher) year after year.
Best head-to-head bet: “Ben” Hun An over Russell Henley (-120 on bet365)
Ben An started a transformation last season by working with a new putting coach named John Graham. Graham’s PGA coaching resume includes Justin Thomas’ PLAYERS, and second PGA win along with Aaron Rai at the end of last season.
There are others, but I bring up Rai for a reason. Graham gave Rai confidence on the greens, and we saw what happened. The same is coming for An. The last time we saw Russell Henley; he finished last at the Hero World Challenge. I’m taking Ben’s momentum against Russell re-building some confidence again.
The Sentry 2025 live odds to win
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Xander Schauffele | +500 |
| Collin Morikawa | +1000 |
| Justin Thomas | +1000 |
| Ludvig Åberg | +1600 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +1800 |
| Sungjae Im | +1800 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1800 |
| Viktor Hovland | +2000 |
| Sam Burns | +2800 |
| Corey Conners | +3000 |
| Sahith Theegala | +3000 |
| Tony Finau | +3000 |
| Byeong Hun An | +3500 |
| Adam Scott | +3500 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +4000 |
| Wyndham Clark | +4000 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +4000 |
| Russell Henley | +4000 |
| Max Greyserman | +4500 |
| Davis Thompson | +4500 |
| Cameron Young | +4500 |
| J.T. Poston | +4500 |
| Keegan Bradley | +5000 |
| Jason Day | +5000 |
| Maverick McNealy | +5000 |
| Brian Harman | +5500 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +5500 |
| Si Woo Kim | +5500 |
| Alex Noren | +6000 |
| Will Zalatoris | +6500 |
| Max Homa | +6500 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +6500 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | +7500 |
| Billy Horschel | +7500 |
| Nick Dunlap | +8000 |
| Eric Cole | +8000 |
| Austin Eckroat | +8000 |
| Denny McCarthy | +8000 |
| Sepp Straka | +9000 |
| Harry Hall | +9000 |
| Aaron Rai | +9000 |
The Sentry 2025: Betting preview
I love looking at leaderboards. In many ways, they tell such an interesting story. Looking back across the Sentry scoring summaries for the past 25 years reveals a very unique pattern. Power is NOT the ultimate skill on the Plantation Course. In fact, one could definitely argue the opposite is the case. Over the past five years, winners have gained more strokes ARG than on approach!
Scoring from close range counts immeasurably at Kapalua. Past champions like Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Cam Smith, and Patrick Reed are a who’s who of amazing wedge artists from the 21st century. Six of the top 10 last year were inside the top 10 for strokes gained ARG that week.
Feel free to throw in Tiger, DJ, and Jon Rahm. The best in the world score from close range. That’s where I’m starting my card and DFS builds. Most pundits will focus on length and putting. The latter definitely helps, but to gain an edge on the field and your betting pools, short game will set you apart. Dive into the scorecard and see. Eight par 4s under 425 yards all call for a touch wedge shot into the green from a very uneven lie. Four par 5s ask for the same attribute.
Collin Morikawa has five starts at Kapalua and never finished worse than seventh! He’s a world-class wedge player. I say this all the time, SG:ARG acumen just doesn’t mean the player saves par. More importantly in birdiefests, they can score from close range. Take a look at the top 10 ARG proximity players on TOUR from 30 yards and in.
- Justin Thomas, Cam Davis, Cam Young, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay, Davis Thompson, Sungjae Im, Bob MacIntyre, Eric Cole, Austin Eckroat
Bermudagrass putting skill becomes exacerbated on the Plantation Course and here’s why? The greens are super large (8,722 sq/ft) and set on the side of a mountain. This was one of Coore and Crenshaws first designs. They were pretty aggressive with the slopes between sections of the surface and with the tiers.
As a result, located next to the ocean, tournament officials have to keep the greens slower than an average PGA TOUR event. Adjusting to long lag putts on grainy surfaces in the first event of the season is not a recipe for success if you’re an average (or below average) putter.
The largest average gain in the primary strokes gained categories comes on the greens. The field can’t separate OTT or on approach. It is simply too easy with large greens and wide open fairways. There’s so little opportunity to differentiate yourself.
Read these Bermuda greens and sink some 15-20′ putts and you’re contending. Large greens also promote three putting. The best lag putters also perform well here. The better you approach putt across these varied surfaces, they less your chances for adding another stroke.
Converting birdie chances is the key and especially on the par 4s. The par 5s have an average birdie rate over 50%. This week we have a par 73 scorecard. We dropped a par 3 and added a mid-length par 4. Getting it done on the eight short par 4s makes a huge difference.
The last 10 champions have gained an average of 7.3 strokes on the 4s versus the field. Bomb a drive, flip a wedge close and convert. The player(s) who can perform that simple blueprint most often will be in the mix Sunday night.
In my comparison model, I added in scrambling, proximity from 175-200, driving distance, course history, and the three par categories where the winners saw the largest gains.
- Par 3: 175-200
- Par 4: 350-400
- Par 5: 500-550
Two very good comp courses for Kapalua’s Plantation Course are Riviera and Augusta National. A quick look at the successful players there validates the past champions and our betting card. Follow our keys, keep an eye out for the new content and above all else, welcome back for another amazing year of Read The Line!
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The Sentry 2025: Course and conditions
The 5.5-mile walk would be pretty average if it weren’t for all of the elevation changes. Looking at the course map below, the highest point on the property is the seventeenth tee. As set on the page, that’s the top of the course map.
So, as each player traverses the layout, when they head up this diagram, they also climb in elevation. The seventeenth tee is 460 ft above sea level. In one round, players and caddies will climb over 900 ft. These athletes are well trained, but coming off the holiday season, Kapalua is a fast start to managing four round fatigue on TOUR.
The forecast is very resort-like this week, the main reason these guys head over to Hawaii. Temperatures are predicted in the low 80s each day, with less than a five-percent chance of precipitation. Thursday through Sunday the trade winds are somewhat active.
The web calls for wind in the 10-18 mph range, but this is the northwest edge of Maui. The breeze can get a little stronger in the afternoon. Granted the field is always done by 5:00pm HT, but the later players will feel a little wind. Overall the forecast is exactly what we expect for the Sentry.
Don’t forget: the TOUR plays outside, and weather can change. That’s why we believe it is imperative to include the real-time weather link for all of the PGA TOUR and LPGA venues.
Pundits are going to push the Chris Kirk at +20000 (200-1) narrative with reckless abandon, but the truth is nine of the winners prior to Kirk held pre-tournament odds under +3300. Eight of them were under +2200 and four were in the single digits. The favorites have shown up here over the years and our card reflects it. You can’t pick every outright at the top of the board, but you can differentiate the complete card in this limited field event.
A couple final notes on the Plantation Course:
- It’s the third-longest course on TOUR.
- At 8,722 sq/ft, these are the largest putting greens on TOUR and the easiest to hit.
- This is the second-easiest course on TOUR OTT. We’re talking wide fairways, folks.
- The par-5 birdie average is over 50 percent.
- Thirteen holes have a birdie rate over 15 percent. Only two holes have a bogey rate over that same value.
Needless to say, 93 bunkers are not going to slow these 60 men down. Scoring will happen early and often. The PGA TOUR season returns with a signature shoot-out. Be thankful for an elite field without the world’s No. 1 player, Scottie Scheffler. It will not happen again. As such, let’s grab an early win, just as we did in our first week at Read The Line.
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 37 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.
