Sunday is a day for the moms and all the mothers out there! Also, there is a considerable amount of hockey on (World Championships) and, of course, Stanley Cup Playoff hockey. Winnipeg and Dallas continue their series from Dallas and Florida battles Toronto to try to even their series.
It is time to up the pace and make some picks!
NHL Playoffs Picks for Sunday, May 11
Jets-Stars Best Bets
Best Bet: Dallas Stars to score first at even strength (+120 at DraftKings).
The Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars split their two games in Winnipeg. Dallas stole the opener before the Jets asserted their will in a 4-0 Game 2 victory. One question is, does the trend of unders continue? Winnipeg and Dallas have scored a total of nine goals during the first two games, even though Winnipeg has scored 2+ goals in a period twice.
Once again, this usually would be a spot to go hard on Winnipeg. Scenarios like this have produced the following over the last 16 such times:
- Winnipeg is 13-3 ATS
- The Jets are 10-6 SU (straight up)
- Over/Under rolls in at 5-11
The problem lies in Dallas. Dallas often bounces back, where Winnipeg predictably lost two in a row after holding serve at home against St. Louis. The Stars rallied to win two overtime games after dropping the opener to Colorado. Lots of information goes all over the place here.
When the majority trends to the under, pivot to some other things. For example, the last game had us take a huge, dangerous wager on Winnipeg getting a lot of shots. Jake Oettinger made 11 first-period saves on 13 shots. It all worked as the Jets led after the opening 20.
The key may be looking for the GIFT (Goal In First Ten). Winnipeg opened Game 2 with two goals within the first half of the first 20 minutes. Playing it safe with a goal in Game 3, early rides in at -135 via DraftKings.
Another option could be for Dallas to score at even strength. That exact result is now plus money at +120. The Stars want to start quickly, and an early goal makes the most sense. Dallas getting an early power play may not be as likely as one would suspect.
Panters-Maple Leafs Betting Picks
The mothers should love that Florida and Toronto have played some compelling hockey. Florida came back from a deficit, Toronto tied Game 3, and then the Panthers won in overtime anyway. This sets the stage for a high-stakes Game 4 on Sunday night.
Brad Marchand foiled the Maple Leafs after the Panthers fell behind 3-1 early, took a 4-3 lead, and then lost it in the third period. Goaltending has been inconsistent in this series at best. Sergei Bobrovsky and Joseph Woll will face off in a series in which the over has comfortably connected three straight times.
Florida is playing with fire and plenty of it. Toronto is up in the series and may get Anthony Stolarz back for Game 5. Anyway, the big players for the Maple Leafs have shown up. John Tavares has five goals this postseason, and William Nylander has points in four straight games.
Both offenses have shown plenty of firepower, with the defense and goaltending making crucial mistakes. Funny enough, Nylander leads us to the Under of 2.5 shots at -110 (two or fewer shots in four of five), with Tavares getting an anytime goal at +210.
Top Player Props: William Nylander Under 2.5 shots (-110 via BetMGM), John Tavares anytime goal (+210)
NHL Playoffs Long Shot Pick for May 11
Guessing the exact margin in a series where one goal has decided things three straight times. Opposites attract here, and the trend for Florida swung in Round 2. Keep in mind, Round 1 saw every Panthers game end by a 2+ goal margin.
With how things have gone, why not try it again? If Florida wins, they will not be able to put away the Leafs, who have shown considerable offensive thrust with their top six.
Our Final Sunday Shot: Florida Panthers win by one goal (+275 via Caesars).
