We’ve had a few days off, but it’s finally time to preview Game 4 and discuss our favorite Stanley Cup Final betting picks. Florida imposed its will on Monday night, while Edmonton lost its collective mind. Despite the number of power plays, the Panthers did not slow down, resulting in a 6-1 victory. Edmonton’s offense looked non-existent as they focused on sending messages over goals.
Make your best NHL bets on Thursday night with offers on DraftKings, FanDuel and Caesars.
Panthers Stay Hot at Home
They said idle hands are the most dangerous. If the Oilers make this a series, they must execute better. Going to the beach helps, but two more games will be played at Amerant Bank Arena. Did Kris Knoblauch and the Edmonton coaching staff make any changes?.
Injuries and news will impact the game. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is expected to play again on Thursday night, but it will be another game-time decision. Several players from both sides are not 100%. According to Paul Coffey, Edmonton expects to change its defensive pairings. Does that mean Troy Stecher gets back into the lineup?
Edmonton will make adjustments. Florida is hammering the Oilers with its top three forward lines and two defensive pairings. The Oilers could gain an advantage the longer the series goes. However, they have to get there first.
Again, Sergei Bobrovsky made that timely save, and Stuart Skinner did not. Was Game 3 all on the Skinner? That answer is no. Mattias Ekholm is not the same player he was during the season. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins only took seven faceoffs. Throw out the penalty minutes and look at the execution, or lack thereof.
Okay, will this be a closer game? In theory, it should be. Florida does a better job of taking advantage of mistakes. Florida outscored Edmonton at even strength by 3-0 (had a +4 edge in scoring chances). Edmonton held the possession edge, but will that trend continue? Expect fewer penalties in Game 4.
The belief is that more even-strength time might tilt the advantage to Florida once again. Expect a closer contest for Florida to cover and win Game 4 on Thursday night.
Stanley Cup Final Betting Pick: Panthers -1.5 (+160 on FanDuel)
Could We See Another Game 7 in the Cup Final?
Digging into the numbers has seen the pendulum move further.
- Edmonton was a -130 favorite to win Game 1 and a -120 favorite to win the series.
- Florida was +100, depending on the sportsbook.
- Game 2 featured Edmonton at -210 to win the series, with Florida a +180 underdog.
- Florida was as high as -120 going into Game 3, while Edmonton was Even on some sportsbooks.
- Heading into Game 4, the tilt to Florida is real at -260, and Edmonton is now a +215 underdog.
Florida and Edmonton continue to weave an interesting story. The two teams looked much like last year in the opening game of the Stanley Cup Final. Florida kept its head, and Edmonton did not. It was like the series started all over again.
The Oilers are more than capable of making this a series again. After all, this happened last year when Edmonton came back from a three-game deficit to force a Game 7.
Edmonton may be down three games to one after Thursday night. While having faith that this series will go the distance may be foolhardy, the numbers support the rationale.
Stanley Cup Prediction: Panthers Exact Outcome 4-3 (+450 on Caesars)
Final NHL Betting Pick for Game 4
Make these NHL betting picks on DraftKings and use a same-game parlay boost. There are several markets you can include, but one stands out.
This is not the time to do both Sam’s score prop (yes, it happened in Game 3). However, besides the over on Sergei Bobrovsky saves, Evan Bouchard is shooting the puck, and that prop is not far-fetched. He led all players with nine shots on goal. Expect this again on Thursday night.
Stanley Cup Final Betting Pick: Bouchard to Lead in Shots on Goal (+450 on DraftKings)
