In what feels like a potential preview of a late-stage thriller at next summer’s World Cup, European heavyweights Spain and France clash in Stuttgart on Thursday to determine the second UEFA Nations League finalist.
These two have a history of contesting razor-thin results — of the last six times they have met since 2012, it has ended in either a draw (one time) or a one-goal victory for either side, with the only exception being a 2017 friendly that Spain won 2-0 in Paris. All 11 previous competitive matches between these nations has finished with at most a two-goal margin of victory, with seven of those even closer.
Spain in particular have positioned themselves as one of the most formidable teams in the world. They have not suffered defeat of any kind since March of last year and are without a loss in a competitive environment since almost exactly one year prior to that.
France, meanwhile, have reached each of the last two World Cup finals, winning one, but are looking to restore some faith amongst the fanbase after a few recent slips, including a narrow penalty-shootout victory over Croatia in the Nations League quarterfinals that required a second-leg turnaround after defeat on the road.
MORE: Predicted lineups, team news, and latest injury updates ahead of Spain vs. France
Spain vs. France prediction, odds
These two always deliver, but Spain at this point are simply the better side. While France feature a number of in-form players up front, including the always electric Kylian Mbappe as well as Ballon d’Or candidate Ousmane Dembele and Champions League final hero Desire Doue, they are extremely thin both in midfield and at the back.
Injuries to Jules Kounde, William Saliba, and Eduardo Camavinga loom large, leaving them to contest this enormous match with the likes of Benjamin Pavard, Clement Lenglet, and Adrien Rabiot in the likely starting XI.
Spain, meanwhile, have managed to paper over the devastating injury to Rodri quite well, and they boast a glutton of healthy talent at nearly every single position. Fascinatingly, their weakest position is in attack, but the imposing presence of Lamine Yamal more than makes up for those missing pieces.
| DraftKings (USA) |
|
| Spain win (90 mins) |
+140 |
| Draw (90 mins) |
+210 |
| France win (90 mins) |
+195 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -125 N: +100 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: +105 U: -150 |
| Spain to advance |
-145 |
| France to advance |
+110 |
Spain vs. France match facts
- Date: Thursday, June 5, 2025
- Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: MHPArena (Stuttgart, Germany)
- Referee: Michael Oliver (ENG)
- Last meeting: Spain 2-1 France (July 9, 2024 | Euro 2024)
MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States
Spain vs. France best bet
- Pick: Spain over 1.5 total goals
- Odds: +135 (DraftKings)
Alongside Argentina, Spain under Luis de la Fuente have become the world’s best side at managing a game, able to absorb pressure when required and remaining consistently dangerous no matter the state of the match.
Despite their lack of top-level superstar attacking talent, La Roja have been able to use their massive advantage over all opponents in midfield to make their forwards look world class. Despite Alvaro Morata’s decline and Spain’s inability to find another striker suited to take over up front, they remain a threat to score from all areas of the pitch at all times.
France are missing both Saliba and Kounde along the back, with the latter’s absence contributing heavily to Barcelona’s semifinal exit from this season’s Champions League. Against the likes of Lucas Hernandez, Malo Gusto, and Benjamin Pavard, Spain’s electric wingers should cause consistent havoc and force France to keep up with them on the scoresheet.
Spain vs. France prop bet
These odds feel almost unfathomable given Lamine Yamal’s rise to prominence over the last calendar year, and his raw numbers seem to back up that notion.
Still just a remarkably jarring 17 years old, the Barcelona star has taken on an outlandish amount of attacking volume at club level this season under Hansi Flick, and he has proven more than up to shouldering the load. Building almost exclusively on the right wing, Lamine Yamal out-touched Raphinha this past season 74-63 per 90 minutes of La Liga play, with the latter profiting largely on arriving in the penalty area at the end of moves.
MORE: Lamine Yamal is the most “next Messi” player we’ve ever seen
While he shares more of the play with his national team, that confidence in his ability to carry the side opposite Nico Williams is growing. Lamine Yamal has 11 goal contributions in his past 14 international appearances, with two goals and nine assists. He is a brilliantly unselfish player who has blossomed into a bona fide star this season, and bettors should back him now knowing these glorious opportunities for such value won’t be around forever.
