Sam Darnold is the NFL’s latest rags-to-riches QB. Can he sustain it? Who could be next?

Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold revived their NFL careers against expectations, offering hope for teams seeking quarterback stability.

Will Darnold hold his new trajectory? Can Justin Fields and Daniel Jones join Smith, Mayfield and Darnold as recent success stories after signing with new teams this offseason? What about Mac Jones, who suddenly finds himself where Darnold was not long ago, working with Kyle Shanahan as a San Francisco 49ers backup?

Darnold, Fields and both Joneses all signed contracts with new teams via free agency last week, and Smith is seeking a new deal after being traded from the Seattle Seahawks — who could not agree with Smith on an extension — to the Las Vegas Raiders.

We’ll place these QBs into the following categories using historical Quarterback Tiers data, input from coaches and additional research:

• Most likely to ascend
• Most likely to hold their trajectories
• Greatest boom-bust potential
• Wild card

The QB Tiers data, reflecting evaluations from coaches and executives over the past 11 seasons, provides myth-busting context regarding just how frequently quarterbacks become something they were not previously.

It’s super rare.

Smith and the Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa stand apart from even Mayfield as outliers.

Before getting into the details, here’s a quick refresher on the Tier definitions:

Tier 1: He can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure-passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.

Tier 2: He can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure-passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.

Tier 3: A legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.

Tier 4: An unproven player (not enough information for voters to classify) or a veteran who ideally would not start all 17 games.

Tier 5: Not a starter, period.

Many QBs have debuted in Tier 4 simply because there was not enough information for the 50 coaches and executives to rate them higher at that stage, typically following their rookie seasons. Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen head that list. Even Jared Goff, who struggled as a rookie, debuted in Tier 4 heading into his second season mostly because he had only seven starts.

Those QBs and quite a few others climbed from Tier 4 without voters having written them off at any point. Removing these QBs from consideration identifies true rags-to-riches success stories at the position.

Once we exclude these QBs, the Raiders’ Smith and the Dolphins’ Tagovailoa stand as the only QBs in Tiers history (2014-2024) to climb from Tiers 4-5 into Tiers 1-3 and sustain those gains, without ever having been in Tiers 1-3 previously.

Mayfield debuted in Tier 2 after his rookie season before slumping, partly because of injury. This makes him a riches-to-rags-to-riches story, apart from Smith. His recent production with Tampa Bay after a couple of down seasons is picking up where he left off earlier in his career, consistent with his previous Tier 2 standing.

Mayfield seems likely to push back into Tier 2 this offseason after ranking sixth in EPA per pass play in 2024 for the NFL’s No. 4 offense by EPA per play. He ranked 19th in QB Tiers among veteran starters entering last season, firmly in Tier 3. Ten of 50 voters placed him in Tier 2, part of his 2.82 average vote.

Could Mayfield threaten his 2019 peak? That year, while with Cleveland, Mayfield ranked 14th among veteran starters, landing in Tier 2 with a 2.53 average and 30 Tier 2 votes. He suffered an injury, struggled and was traded to Carolina, where he struggled again before stopping over with the Los Angeles Rams and then to Tampa Bay.

Some other QBs over the years climbed into higher tiers before regressing: Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, Trevor Lawrence, Blake Bortles and Case Keenum among them.

With that context in mind, let’s handicap the most interesting veteran QBs on new teams heading into 2025.

Most likely to ascend: Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones

Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks

How shocking was Darnold’s breakout 2024 season with the Minnesota Vikings? That depends on how closely one was watching Darnold during brief appearances with the San Francisco 49ers in 2023.

“Darnold had less than 50 attempts (with the 49ers), but he displayed physical talent and intangibles, showing why he was drafted highly in 2018,” The Athletic’s Randy Mueller wrote in March 2024, before taking a job with the New Orleans Saints. “His arm strength, accuracy and ability to process finally fit into a scheme for the first time in his career.”

Darnold is returning to that very Kyle Shanahan/49ers scheme in Seattle, where former San Francisco pass game coordinator Klint Kubiak is the new offensive coordinator. Darnold and Kubiak were together on the 49ers in 2023. That gives Darnold a good shot at building on his 2024 Vikings season, although he could see some statistical dropoff in what figures to be a more conservative offense with lesser weaponry.

“That city (Seattle) is right for Darnold, far away from everything he dealt with on the Jets,” an exec from another team said. “It will be similar to Minnesota with the run and play-action stuff, but they won’t have a Justin Jefferson. You still have to throw it on third down when you are behind or in two-minute, which could be up and down for him.”

Coaches and execs voted Darnold into Tier 3 twice earlier in his career. They thought he was ascending entering the 2020 season. Darnold slipped into Tier 4 since then. His big season with the Vikings figures to push him back into Tier 3 this summer.

The familiarity with Kubiak and Seattle’s expected commitment to the ground game gives Darnold a good shot at pushing higher within Tier 3 longer term. But his late-season struggles, including in the playoffs, raised questions in the absence of a longer track record of success.

Seattle’s ability to protect Darnold remains a key variable. The team appears to be betting that changes to the offensive scheme and playing style will mitigate longstanding problems in pass protection. Seattle will almost surely reduce its usage of five-man protection schemes.

Kubiak’s single season as the New Orleans Saints’ offensive coordinator could be instructive. Quarterback Derek Carr’s sack rate dropped by nearly half from 2023 to a league-low 2.8 percent in 2024 despite major issues on the offensive line. His EPA per pass play more than doubled. His passer rating (101.0) was the second-best of his career.

Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

There’s little reason to expect Jones — Darnold’s teammate for eight weeks to finish the 2024 season — will become much more than he was at his best with the New York Giants (Tier 3 entering 2020, 2021 and 2023). But eventually reviving his career as a Tier 3 starter could be realistic.

“This is a perfect match,” an offensive coach from another team said. “They do not have to change game plans for him because that guy (Jones) can do some of what (Anthony) Richardson can do running around. That is how Jones had his best year in New York anyway.”

Jones, who peaked in Tier 3 as the 19th-ranked veteran starter entering 2023, is almost surely headed to a second consecutive offseason in Tier 4 this summer (2025 balloting has not yet begun). The switch from the Giants to the Colts gives him a better chance at ascending into Tier 3 heading into 2026.

“This will be the freest Daniel Jones that we have ever seen,” the coach said. “Expectations are off. The media market is totally different.”

Richardson, selected fourth in the 2023 draft, will get every chance to win the starting job in Indianapolis. The evidence so far suggests he will struggle to hold the job if he wins it. It’ll be no shock if Jones beats out Richardson in camp, takes over for a struggling Richardson during the season or replaces Richardson for injury reasons.

Most likely to hold his trajectory: Geno Smith

Smith, like Mayfield, has already stacked multiple successful seasons. Suddenly reverting to past struggles would be more surprising for them than maintaining their trajectories.

Smith has averaged a career-best 3.0 Tier vote entering each of the past two seasons, ranking 20th among veteran starters each year, solidly in Tier 3.

Although a case can be made that Smith is underrated, coaches and executives see a ceiling. Some see a streaky player.

“I just think Geno is a slinger,” one veteran offensive coach said.

It seems unlikely Smith’s production in 2024 would vault him into Tier 2 entering the 2025 season. Would the Seahawks have traded Smith for a third-round pick if they thought he were on that level? Will Smith suddenly ascend in Las Vegas with a new system in his age-35 season? He appears to have reached a respectable cruising altitude.

Greatest boom-bust potential: Justin Fields

The New York Jets needed a quarterback and landed one in Fields.

Did they need to pay him $30 million fully guaranteed — triple what Darnold got from Minnesota a year earlier — after Fields lost his job to the still-unemployed Russell Wilson in Pittsburgh last season?

Are the Jets that sure Fields will succeed under a first-time defensive-minded head coach (Aaron Glenn) and, most intriguingly, under a first-time offensive coordinator (Tanner Engstrand) whose 88-game NFL career features zero starts with dual-threat quarterbacks (69 with Jared Goff, 16 with Matthew Stafford, three with Tim Boyle)?

More likely, the Jets wanted to get younger with some upside at the position after transitioning away from Aaron Rodgers but did not feel comfortable betting on the seventh pick in the 2025 draft to deliver their next starter.

One piece of context on the Jets’ pursuit of Justin Fields: The Broncos were high on Fields in 2021. He’d have been the pick at 9 if Denver had decided to go QB. They took Patrick Surtain instead, but there was a lot of internal debate over it. Darren Mougey was Denver’s DPP.

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) March 10, 2025

“Fields is the best athlete on the field every time he plays,” a quarterbacks coach said. “He’s really young (26). He’s a tough guy, physically and mentally. He can play in that style of (dual-threat) offense at a higher level than Sam Darnold can play in a traditional style of offense.”

Fields has 2,365 yards rushing in 44 starts. Only Lamar Jackson (2,729) has had more to start a career.

While with Chicago, Fields topped 100 yards rushing three times in five games against Glenn-coordinated Lions defenses, but his Bears lost all three games (Fields passed for 169, 167 and 75 yards in those games). Fields won his two other starts against Glenn, combining to complete 30 passes for 432 yards.

“What they did in Detroit on offense and what Fields does are at opposite ends of the spectrum,” the coach said. “It will take a really good coaching effort to put all that together.”

The Lions had a league-low 160 yards rushing by quarterbacks during Engstrand’s 2020-24 tenure on the staff. The Jets ranked 31st over that span with 205.

Fields represents a massive philosophical shift for the Jets as a franchise and for their new staff. How it all unfolds in the NFL’s largest, most intense media market will be fascinating.

Wild card: Mac Jones, San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers shocked some by selecting Trey Lance over Jones with the third pick in the 2021 draft. What are the chances Jones, who started 42 games for New England and seven with Jacksonville, might parlay a season with Shanahan into the sort of success Darnold enjoyed in Minnesota?

“I’m not as optimistic because he has less of an arm, and he’s a lesser athlete,” an exec said. “I can see how Jimmy Garoppolo had success there because he’s quick with the ball. Mac Jones is a little bit lesser of a player than those guys, in my opinion, but it could still help him going there.”

Brock Purdy is expected to get a contract extension this offseason, but if he misses any time because of injury — he missed two games in 2024 — Jones could have the chance to boost his stock.

(Photo of Sam Darnold, left, and Daniel Jones: Luke Hales / Getty Images)