In this betting preview:
Considering his start to 2025, Scottie Scheffler did not come to Napa, California to play with wine glasses. Scheffler and nine more of his Ryder Cup teammates will be competing as prep for the 45th Ryder Cup match at the end of the month. It’s a nice boost to the Procore Championship, but if you asked the rest of the 144-man field, they would have been happy to take on Silverado Resort’s North Course without the world’s No. 1 and his cup competitors.
In a related story, Captain Luke Donald’s European side has 11 of its 12 players teeing it up across the Atlantic in the DP World Tour’s flagship event, the BMW PGA Championship. Sepp Straka is the only European Ryder Cup team member not in the field, as he’s with his newborn baby.
The FedEx Cup Fall Series is now down to seven events. As autumn unfolds, there are two important points races to keep an eye on.
The first is signature-related. The top 50 on the FedEx Cup regular season are locked in, but players who finish on the FedEx points list between 51 and 60 are given access to the first two “full-field” signature events (AT&T, Genesis). We’ve witnessed how important playing in those events can be, and with many of the TOUR’s elite at home in October and November, these 10 coveted spots are really up for grabs.
The second is getting inside the top 100. For decades, the top 125 earned their tour card for the upcoming season. That’s no longer the case. One can debate the difference between the two cutoffs, but for this fall setup, let’s just list the facts. Finish 101, and you’d better start looking at the Korn Ferry Tour calendar.
This preview is just that, a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Procore Championship, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
Procore Championship 2025 best bets
Best bet to win: Ben Griffin (+2800 on DraftKings)
Ben Griffin got a huge boost from Captain Keegan Bradley. An invite to Bethpage, and I believe Griffin’s confidence will increase in Napa. Four top 12 finishes in his last four events won’t hurt either. The Carolina Kid is great with a wedge and his putter. Ben can avoid bogeys and seemingly score at will. While many of the Cup competitors will be looking ahead, Griffin might just grab one more trophy in 2025!
Best bet to place in the Top 10: Jackson Koivun (+450 on DraftKings)
Just about 160 miles southwest of the Silverado Resort sits the Cypress Point Club, host of the 50th Walker Cup matches. The number one-ranked amateur in the world, Jackson Koivun went 3-1 over the weekend and displayed an amazing skill set prepared for the PGA TOUR. Cypress forces you to keep the ball in play and use your wedges. Combine that with a match play mindset for aggressive scoring, and what better way to get ready for the Procore. Winning is a tall task, but these young guns have proven that when they are playing well, contending is no problem.
Best head-to-head bet: Sam Burns over Collin Morikawa (+120 on Bet365)
Bradley was passing out Ryder Cup tickets on Monday and revealing team uniforms. In one week, Keegan is making his six Captain’s selections. Those decisions, phone calls, the Today Show, it all adds up to a major distraction.
McNealy just finished third at the BMW and still has a chance to be one of those choices next Wednesday (if he plays great). I believe he will stay motivated and win the tournament match this weekend. Unfortunately for Maverick, come next Wednesday, Bradley will win his spot on the team.
Procore Championship 2025 betting odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings. Showing odds shorter than +9000.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Scottie Scheffler | +210 |
| Russell Henley | +1600 |
| Justin Thomas | +1600 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1800 |
| Cameron Young | +2000 |
| Sam Burns | +2000 |
| J.J. Spaun | +2200 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2500 |
| Maverick McNealy | +2500 |
| Harris English | +2500 |
| Ben Griffin | +2800 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +3500 |
| Davis Thompson | +5000 |
| Max Homa | +5000 |
| Max Greyserman | +5000 |
| Jackson Koivun | +5000 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | +7000 |
| Alex Smalley | +7500 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +8000 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | +8000 |
| Beau Hossler | +8000 |
| Matt McCarty | +8000 |
| Mark Hubbard | +8000 |
| Keith Mitchell | +8000 |
Procore Championship 2025: Betting preview
The PGA TOUR’s trip to Napa has held several spots (and sponsors) on the season-long schedule. Fixed for some time, players have been traveling to wine country in mid-September to start the fall run. The Silverado Resort has 36 holes of golf, and the TOUR uses its North Course for the Procore. A par 72 scorecard that measures 7,138 yards is far from a difficult test for these 144 players. The North Course is the shortest par-72 track on TOUR. Tournament officials have added 15 yards to the par 5 fifteenth hole, and changed the routing significantly in 2023, but the average winning score is still 19 under par over the last five editions.
Add a couple of Ryder Cup team members, and that total is likely to go even lower. Vegas has the final score over/under at 21.5 under par. Recent champions have held some pretty serious long odds. Seven of the last 10 winners have started the week at +5000 (50-1) or longer on the betting board. I realize none of those editions hosted Scottie and friends, but don’t be surprised if the middle tier is motivated with limited starts available before the two big cutoffs happen in mid-November.
A simple reason why the PGA TOUR comes to wine country in September is the weather! The forecast calls for temperatures in the low 80s and 10-12 mph of wind out of the southwest. There’s no rain in the region, and the turf conditions are perfect for growing grass, wine, etc. Keeping the North Course firm and fast is probably the only headwind these guys will face all week. Patton Kizzire won by five strokes over David Lipsky in 2024 because he gained eight strokes T2G and another eight plus with the putter. While most past champions go deep on the medium-length par 4s and 5s, Kizzire kept his scoring even across each par category. Silverado has 22 acres of fairway, which is tight, and 53 bunkers, but the average length of the par 4s is 410 yards! Three weeks ago at East Lake, the average par 4 length was 452 yards!
The winners average 24 sub-par scores because they attack each hole with a scoring iron in hand. Get the approach radar going, fire up the flatstick, and you can contend. An average green size of 5,400 sq/ft doesn’t scare these guys when they are hitting a gap wedge. Fifty percent of the approach shots are taken from 150 yards and closer. Pundits will push the narrow fairways narrative, but the truth is that only six guys on the final leaderboard in the top 20 were inside the top 10 for driving accuracy. Go low or go home will be said many times over the next seven PGA TOUR events. The top 65 and ties will play the weekend. The average cutline over the last five years is 2.4 under par. With the predicted conditions, I would get south of three or four under if you plan to play Saturday and Sunday for the $6 million purse.
Yes, the FedEx Cup playoffs paydays are over as our winner receives $1.1 million. As a sign of the times, the winner no longer receives an invitation to the Masters. I won’t speculate what that means for the future, but with the entire focus of the TOUR on the FedEx Cup regular season, I think Rolapp’s rollout will include substantial changes to the fall schedule. Who better to understand the impact of the NFL on the TOUR’s fall finances than the man who built their media empire.
I enjoy this course for a couple of reasons. New and veteran stars have used this venue to elevate their careers. The tree-lined fairways keep the annual round-by-round scoring average a little under one stroke under par. Players will make bogeys, and that creates an exciting finish year after year. Talking to the media on-site, there’s a bunch of attention on these Ryder Cup boys. With that Bethpage microscope firmly affixed, don’t be surprised if we get another one of those middle-tier guys across the finish line first again.
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Procore Championship 2025: Silverado Resort course overview
I love this venue as a Bethpage Black warmup. Very few PGA TOUR venues present any challenge when the average winning score is 20 under par. As the guys get ready for the Ryder Cup, there are a couple of skills our team needs to sharpen if they plan to overpower the European side as they did in Wisconsin at Whistling Straits. Those same skills will also keep you in contention come Sunday in Napa. Imagine the rhetoric reversal surrounding the US side if a team member won this week, versus the narrative that played out in Rome. Here comes the famous phrase, “on paper,” this is a prime preview course for a Team USA player. Not convinced, follow me through this thought process, and you’ll begin to see for yourself how Bethpage is going to be set up in two weeks.
There will be a premium on hitting the fairway at Bethpage. The US side is more accurate off the tee. There’s also a premium on hitting fairways at Silverado. The field hit 47% of its fairways last year. Granted, the North Course is not long, but a week full of tough tee shots is a great training ground. Can you win without leading the field in strokes gained off the tee? 100%. A straightforward path to winning involves accuracy and length off the tee. Research of the career North Course strokes gained leaders depicts an edge to solid ball strikers. Strokes gained ball striking is the combination of driver and approach acumen. The fairways at Silverado move from side to side. The player who can control the tee ball in both directions gains an edge. The landing areas at Bethpage bend as well. I’m looking at well-rounded drivers this week. Guys who can fit the ball into the fairway in all types of situations.
The second ball striking skill is approach play. We know the North Course is a wedge fest. I’ve seen the scorecard for Bethpage, and the official yardage is 107 yards shorter than it was for the 2019 PGA Championship. We got killed in Rome because Luke Donald and Edoardo Molinari took away one of our superpowers. The United States players will kill you with their wedge accuracy. Do you remember us hitting any great wedge shots in 2023 at Marco Simone? No. The reason was the course setup. Silverado is a great wedge exam. The North Course will test all of your short irons and scoring clubs. Patton Kizzire is a proven wedge player. The winner this week will have their radar fixed from 150 yards and in. Considering the average PGA TOUR player hits their pitching wedge about 140-150 yards, we are going to see a bunch of close approaches. Our card is going to be filled with wedge wizards we know are in great current form.
In 2023, the PGA TOUR significantly changed the routing on the North course. Eleven holes were changed, and the result is a much more interesting back nine. On the closing seven holes, players now see three par 5s, two par 4s under 375 yards, and a 180-yard par 3 over water. If you like birdie streaks (and what DFS degenerate doesn’t?) then here is your place to string sub-par scores together.
At this point in the season, we know who thrives on the final 9 scoring average leaderboards. Not only am I considering BoB%, etc., when it comes to scoring, but I also love the edge back nine potential gives us for the whole card. Last year, the North Course had a scoring average per round of 0.75 under par. The back nine scoring average for the week was 0.74 under par. My PGA eyes are always looking for playability edges, and this one will result in a nice net Napa return.
Back to the Bethpage theme, let’s focus on putting. The Americans never make the big putts under pressure, and the Europeans do. Heard that before?!?!?! If you plan to win the Procore, you’d better warm up that flatstick. Each of the last five winners has gained over four strokes on the field with their flatstick. Those 5,400 sq/ft greens are covered in a Poa Annua – Bentgrass mix. Bethpage will list a similar blend on its GCSAA information sheet. This blend is some of the best grass you can putt on. Superintendents can cut that blade to any height under great growing conditions.
The best time of year for golf course maintenance in Napa and Long Island is now! The best prep for The Cup is having to make putts under pressure on this surface. Will all 10 Ryder Cuppers make the cut? That would be great, but to do so, they will have to make meaningful putts on Friday. Contend, and the pressure ramps up again on Sunday. The greens will be perfect this week out west, and much like featuring the best wedge players, my second most important tool is converting birdie opportunities on these specific greens.
The North Course values around the green play more than almost any birdie fest. Contenders over the past few years have gained more strokes with their short game than they have with their OTT play. That’s a bit skewed due to the tight fairways, but the simple fact is that with so many short holes, guys increase their win equity with timely scrambling shots. Four par 5s, nine par 4s under 440, and your around the green game matters. When it comes to par scoring, I’m taking a balanced approach. Here’s the strokes gained ranges:
- Par 3: 175-200 yards
- Par 4: 400-450 yards
- Par 5: 550-600 yards
Recent winners have gained against the field across the board, another reason why the North Course is an entertaining venue. Our winner will have to use each of these featured skills for four days. Based upon that breakdown, you can start to see how if Keegan picked the proper United States players, they will shine in this setting.
It’s easy to say Scottie will be there on Sunday, but he won’t be the only one. I’m going after a couple of the Bethpage boys and FedEx Cup fall featured players. Enjoy the Procore, and the usual entertainment a late Sunday in Napa produces. By the time you read this and the LPGA newsletter, I’ll be back in the Bethpage lab. We are going to hammer the Ryder Cup with winning content. I can’t wait to see the guys go deep this week and get ready for the Battle on the Black!
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 42 outright wins and covers the TGL, LPGA, and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, and Twitter.
