The Philadelphia Phillies won 95 games and secured their first National League East title since 2011 last year. After being knocked out by the New York Mets in the NLDS, the Phillies still look like the team to beat in the division.
They have a strong roster that features Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Kyle Schwarber and others. However, there is one investment that might come back to haunt them in the near future.
After the 2023 season, Philadelphia re-signed Nola to a seven-year, $172 million contract, and he performed well in 2024, going 14-8 with a 3.57 ERA in 33 starts while striking out 197 batters.
But Nola may not have much longer as an innings-eater. Zachary D. Rymer of Bleacher Report predicts that by 2027, Philadelphia will regret this contract.
“The long ball is likely to remain a problem for Nola, and not just because of Citizens Bank Park. He doesn’t keep the ball on the ground like he used to, as his four lowest GB% rates have all come in the last four seasons,” Rymer wrote.
“While danger doesn’t seem imminent, you also have to wonder how much longer Nola can sustain as an innings-eater.
Since 2018, he ranks third in pitches thrown and first in innings. It’s an impressive track record, but the fact that Nola has yet to have any kind of breakdown feels like a ticking-time-bomb thing.”
Nola has struggled with the home run ball and isn’t striking out as many hitters as he once did, which may be cause for some concern in Philadelphia.
He will be three years into his deal by 2027 and by then will also be 34 years old. He’ll be owed $98.3 million over the final four years of his contract.
While Nola remains effective, he may be entering a decline soon, and that is something the Phillies will hope to avoid. It will be interesting to see if he is still this effective by 2027 or if Rymer’s prediction will come true.
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