San Deigo Padres general manager A.J. Preller cannot help himself. Few executives act with the reckless abandon of Preller, and nobody has traded more high-profile prospects over the last decade than the sport’s most entertaining general manager.
During Thursday’s trade deadline, Preller assumed his role as harbinger of the blockbuster, dealing blue-chip prospect Leo De Vries and right-handed pitchers Braden Nett, Henry Báez, and Eduarniel Nuñez for Miller and starter JP Sears.
Trading a haul for a reliever made the move controversial and lent itself to the idea that San Diego could recoup more value by getting more innings from its big acquisition, turning Miller into a starter as the rotation approaches uncertainty in 2026.
The upside is tantalizing, but neither the Padres nor Miller benefit from a role change in the near future.
Chasing value makes little sense
It’s seemingly impossible to project relievers with much precision. Between variance, volatility, and the small sample sizes they call home, there’s a healthy dose of uncertainty in Miller’s short-term future. The Padres are betting on Miller making the National League’s best bullpen even stronger.
He can’t do that without staying healthy. Miller has a history of shoulder issues and has missed time with a UCL sprain and a broken hand during his short MLB career. It’s the kind of medical profile that is slated for relief and not 150 innings worth of 100-mph fastballs.
Miller adds depth to San Diego’s staff, perhaps giving Preller an exit ramp to starting pitching. The Padres could reasonably move one of those arms in an offseason trade to fill the void some project for the closer.
Further, moving Miller to the rotation would exacerbate those risks, and likely limit his availability regardless of his health. Miller has thrown 40.1 innings in 2025. Last season, he hit a career-high 65, a mark he never sniffed in the minor leagues.
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A pivot to the rotation would pencil Miller in for a workload he may not be capable of, demanding San Diego build him up slowly to limit his injury risk. That means keeping his duties in check by way of hard innings limits, pitch counts, and phantom-like Injured List stints.
The Padres would be without their flamethrower more for a larger part of the season, despite the 100+ innings he’d be set to throw. That, in turn, makes Miller a five-and-dive starter with medical red flags — far from the type of ace that gets paid in free agency.
His path to cashing in on the open market is as an elite closer. There’s little to suggest he plans on deviating from that, nor should he given the medical risks attached.
Unless Miller avoids free agency with an early-arbitration extension that guarantees him the financial security worth putting his body on the line, this isn’t a conversation San Diego should soon entertain. Preller acquired Miller with the hopes of taking early leads and holding onto them with a Murderers’ Row of relievers. As flawed of a process as the trade may have been, course-correcting with an even worse decision is a quick path to a left-tailed outcome.
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