In this betting preview:
The 153rd Open Championship takes place on Royal Portrush’s Dunluce Course this weekend. The Open was recently played at Portrush in 2019, with Shane Lowry winning at 15 under par. The course also hosted another Open Championship way back in 1951, with Max Faulkner prevailing at -3.
Set across the North Atlantic Ocean, this amazing dunescape design is framed to the north by the Giant’s Causeway. A unique rock formation along the Northern Irish coast, it is a fitting neighbor for Royal Portrush, where giants of the game are about to compete.
The top 59 players are on property, ready to compete for $17 million. The top 70 and ties will play the weekend and have a chance to claim the Claret Jug. Xander Schauffele currently holds the famed trophy from his victory one year ago at Royal Troon.
One more week of early-morning golf awaits our senses. Set the alarm and enjoy the greatness that only links golf can provide. It will be 69 days until the Ryder Cup and 263 sunsets until Augusta. That’s a lifetime to wait in both cases if you love championship-caliber theater. Mother Nature, Harry Colt, and the Golf Gods, please give us your best. I just cannot wait until 1:00 a.m. ET tomorrow morning.
This preview is just that, a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Open Championship, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.
Open Championship 2025 best bets
Best bet to win: Jon Rahm (+1200 on DraftKings)
Jon Rahm finished eleventh the last time we played Royal Portrush (2019) and is a much more complete player now. In 2025, he has a 14-8-7 record in the majors. The driver will be a huge factor, and Rahm’s gained positively OTT in EVERY start this season. Although that will set him up perfectly, it is Rahm’s ground game that will give him a final edge. Similar to Oakmont, this is how Jon will separate himself from the full swing players and step into the Champion Golfer of the Year’s locker room.
Best bet to place in the Top 10: Xander Schauffele (+260 on DraftKings)
Xander Schauffele cashed last week for a top 10 in North Berwick. Let’s go again with one of the most consistent top 10 performers in majors over the past five years. Since 2020, Xander has had 11 top 10s in 21 starts. In his major career, Scheuffele has 17 top 10s in 33 major championships. An incredible links player, Scheuffele led the field in Scotland on approach. I’ll take his record, current form, and the 10 places to window again on Sunday.
Best head-to-head bet: Jordan Spieth over Chris Gotterup (-125 on DraftKings)
Jordan Spieth has yet to miss a cut in the Open Championship (11 starts). Spieth won in 2017 at Royal Birkdale and has not finished outside the top 25 since! This is Chris Gotterup’s first Open Championship. Certainly, in great form after winning the Scottish Open, I’ll take experience over a rookie run. Gotterup’s best skill is the driver, and although that will help him, I worry about the demands of winning on Sunday and figuring out the Dunluce on very short notice.
Open Championship 2025 betting odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings. Showing odds of +10000 and shorter.
| Golfer | Odds |
| Scottie Scheffler | +450 |
| Rory McIlroy | +750 |
| Jon Rahm | +1200 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +2200 |
| Xander Schauffele | +2200 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 |
| Viktor Hovland | +3000 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | +3000 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +3000 |
| Collin Morikawa | +3500 |
| Shane Lowry | +4000 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +4500 |
| Sepp Straka | +5000 |
| Justin Thomas | +5000 |
| Brooks Koepka | +5500 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +5500 |
| Jordan Spieth | +5500 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +5500 |
| Russell Henley | +6500 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +6500 |
| Justin Rose | +7000 |
| Corey Conners | +7500 |
| Sam Burns | +8000 |
| Adam Scott | +8000 |
| Patrick Reed | +8000 |
| Cameron Young | +9000 |
| Ryan Fox | +9000 |
| Ben Griffin | +9000 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +9000 |
| Chris Gotterup | +10000 |
| Aaron Rai | +10000 |
| Keegan Bradley | +10000 |
| Jason Day | +10000 |
Open Championship 2025: Betting preview
For the second time in six years, we are heading to Northern Ireland and the Royal Portrush Golf Club. Quite possibly the most prolific course for making modern major champions in golf, Darren Clarke, Graeme McDowell, and Rory McIlroy have all developed their game on this Harry Colt course. A 36-hole facility, the Dunluce links are named after the Dunluce Castle (17th Century) perched high above this coastline creation. A par 71 scorecard measuring 7,381 yards, the course has four par 3s, 11 par 4s, and three par 5s. Old Tom Morris was the first to lay out a links design across these majestic dunes. A seaside masterpiece, many feel it is the strongest test the Open rota has visited in the last 25 + years.
The Open Championship starts with the weather. We all know Mother Nature is undefeated, and the experience at Royal Troon was just another example of how she can control a championship competition. As of Wednesday afternoon in Ireland, the forecast calls for rain on all four tournament days. About an inch of precipitation is expected across the four rounds. Leading up to the championship, the region has been dry. Boots on the ground are reporting firm turf to start the week. If we get a couple of showers across the four days, it will remain firm, but should the floodgates open, expect to see scoring similar to 2019, where Shane Lowry won at 15 under par and 29 players completed 72 holes at -1 or better. The wind looks fairly calm for the coastline. Gusts are predicted in the low 20s, but the main windcast calls for breezes blowing in the 15-18 mph range.
Many times in PGA TOUR events, the forecast will cause us to pick one tee time wave or another. The Open Championship is unique because the entire field (156 players) will tee off the first hole in all four rounds. It helps that in Northern Ireland and Scotland during July, the sunlight remains until approximately 10:00 pm. The string of tee times does have a “wave feel,” with morning and afternoon times, but everyone does play the course in order. It is very difficult to predict a wave advantage based upon the current forecast, and even if there was a perceived edge, I would still try to balance the card the best we can in case the forecast shifts quickly. Lowry was an 80-1 (+8000) longshot when he won in 2019. Nine of the top 15 finishers six years ago had pre-tournament odds over 60-1 (+6000). Portrush provided a very balanced result amongst the favorites and far reachers.
Unknowns like Bobby MacIntyre finished sixth in his first Open Championship alongside recent four-time major winner Brooks Koepka in fourth. During my years as a golf professional, I had the opportunity to spend time with Dr. Philip (PJ) Stevenson in Princeton. PJ’s father was Philip George (PG) Stevenson, and the Head Golf Professional at Royal Portrush from 1922 to 1977. PJ’s brother (Dai Stevenson) took over for Dad in 1977 and was the club professional until 1999. Dr. Stevenson shared endless stories about his years growing up on the Portrush coastline. He believed the intricacies of the course could not be discerned in one championship week. To know the Dunluce meant to play it in all conditions. Stevenson passed away before 2019 and did not have the chance to see The Open return to his childhood home, but he was right. Lowry finished six shots ahead of second place in a manner only an insider might fashion.
I played a bunch of golf with PJ, and his game was defined by a low ball flight and exemplary short game technique. As we dig deeper into the field and their strengths, I’m reminded of those conversations. The memories are vivid, and his description(s) of the course come to me in 4k. One of my favorite stories was his retelling of the time he heard about a young man who shot 61 in 2005 to set the course record. Five years later, when he was recounting the story to me, you could tell he still did not believe it. By then, we all knew who Rory McIlroy was, but in ’05, the legend was just being written. I love the Open Championship for a number of reasons. Turning on the TV in July to see players battle the elements just gives the appearance of golf on another planet. Watching players score by using the ground is a lost art. In a world where ball speed and launch angle loom large, going back to a classic Colt design is terrific.
Major championship venues change frequently. It is not often we see a similar venue so soon. So many of the members of that 2019 leaderboard are still relevant, and to those who aren’t, we can still learn a thing or two. Let’s crack down on Mr. Colt’s work and research the last leaderboard. On the front of that yellow billboard is the key(s) to winning this year’s final major championship.
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Open Championship 2025: Royal Portrush course overview
Imagine the iconic yellow leaderboard leaning over Shane Lowry as he walked the final yards of his 2019 Open win on the eighteenth hole at Royal Portrush. While the Irish Bear soaked in the admiration of his country, his victory was framed by the following names from the top 15:
- Tommy Fleetwood, Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka, Lee Westwood, Danny Willett, Rickie Fowler, Tyrell Hatton, Robert MacIntyre, Patrick Reed, Alex Noren, Justin Thomas, Francesco Molinari, Tom Lewis, and Jon Rahm
Just as I asked Johnson Wagner and Brendon de Jonge on the 5 Clubs Open preview, when you hear these names, what skill (or skills) immediately come to mind? These men are all elite ball strikers. The flatstick may have failed them in their careers from time to time, but these guys can flush it. When you take a test like the Dunluce, which has an average green size of 5,400 sq/ft, you must be accurate in normal conditions.
Now try to make sub-par scores while the wind and rain are blowing in sideways. Guys like Fleetwood, Westwood, Koepka and Rahm could hit GIRs amid a hurricane. This is a major test, so about 45 percent of the approach shots are taken from over 175 yards. Long iron acumen will always be the number one separating skill. The remaining 40 percent of approaches will fall with a wedge in hand. That careful combination of both to raised putting surfaces provides the No. 1 test on this Colt course. Needless to say, I went the heaviest I could on approach for Portrush.
Hitting GIRs requires a decent approach angle and lie. Many of the back nine green complexes almost repel incoming approaches. To control spin and trajectory with your irons, you must be hitting a large majority of those iron shots from the fairway. Again, those top 15 are some of the best OTT players of then AND now.
Strokes gained T2G is the No. 1 determining factor for these betting cards and DFS recommendations. Royal Portrush has eight tee shots that move right to left and five that meander left to right. Looking at the leaderboard, I don’t see a heavy tendency toward either ball flight. The bigger OTT examination comes in course management. We will see players use a number of different strategies from the tee box. Strong strategy players with plenty of Open experience will make a difference. I truly believe a better game plan this week will help you differentiate yourself from the field.
I love Oakmont as a comp course. The tight landing areas off the tee and ground game needed from 50 yards and in make that leaderboard relevant. There are a couple of players whom I loved in Pittsburgh, you will see again below. You won’t see the 100-foot putts at Portrush like other Open venues, but a deft touch with the flatstick from the fringe and tight lies surrounding these surfaces is another leaderboard lean.
I would categorize this form of approach or lag putting on very slow surfaces as a different skill than pure putting. It’s part of the around-the-green toolkit one needs to excel at The Open. The ability to play from uneven lies is best measured ARG. Players who are great at chipping and pitching tend to have great results hitting from uneven surfaces on approach. They also possess the creativity and imagination needed to handle a major championship venue like Portrush in any conditions.
You know, with any major I’m leaning heavily into par 4 play, and with 11 on the Dunluce, I like that aggregate analytic even more. Vegas has the winning score over/under at 11.5 under par. It implies a fair amount of scoring, and I agree. Players will need to make some sub-par scores. The 2019 top 15 averaged 16 birdie or better scores. It is a major test, but we have three par 5s and six par 4s under 440 yards. The par-4 fifth is reachable in most conditions. Guys are going to make birdies, and while everyone focuses on bad weather and bogey avoidance, don’t forget to lean on guys who can go low in majors. The lowest score wins, and many times that vital skill gets overlooked through complex models with wind charts, weighted strokes gained, and wave speculation.
Another intricate detail I learned about the Dunluce from a family of golf professionals who served Royal Portrush for 77 years is to be wary of the sand. While so much attention is given to the fescue and green complexes, the Dunluce has one of the most interesting sets of bunkers across 15 of the 18 holes. Fifty-seven of them cover nearly 80,000 sq/ft of space. Dr. Stevenson was an excellent bunker player. I asked PJ how he learned to play from the sand, and he said in that Northern Irish accent, “by necessity.”
Shane Lowry led the field in GIRs and birdies. Let’s not overcomplicate one of the world’s most wonderful golf venues. We’re running with the best iron players who can score and scramble. Handle the weather and game plan to win; that’s what defines our betting card. I know after the heartbreak we have recently felt, the Champion Golfer of the Year is on it!
Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 40 outright wins and covers the TGL, LPGA, and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, and Twitter.
