History would favor the Pacers to win the NBA title after Wednesday night.
Indiana took down the Thunder 116-107 behind Tyrese Haliburton’s near triple-double and a barrage of bench points, taking a 2-1 series lead in the 2025 NBA Finals. While the Pacers came into the series viewed as the underdogs against a top-seeded Oklahoma City squad, years of Finals matchups would suggest that Rick Carlisle’s team is in the driver’s seat no matter its opponent.
The winner of Game 3 in a series tied at a game apiece has gone on to win the title a significant majority of the time.
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Here’s what to know about the stat that could help define the result of the 2025 NBA Finals between the Pacers and Thunder.
MORE THUNDER-PACERS GAME 3:
History of 2-1 Finals leads after Game 3 win
In the previous 41 NBA Finals series that were tied at 1-1 through two games, the winner of Game 3 has often captured the title. In a total of 33 of those series, the Game 3 winner emerged as the champion, which is an 80.5 percent rate.
According to Land of Basketball, when looking at the 599 total NBA playoffs series that have been tied at 1-1, the winner of Game 3 wound up advancing/winning the series in 480 of them, which is similarly an 80.1 percent rate. On just 119 occasions, the loser of Game 3 came back to win the series.
Those stats, of course, signal that the Pacers have strong chances of closing out the series over the Thunder after Wednesday’s win. But history isn’t always guaranteed to repeat itself — especially when more recent history suggests otherwise.
Oklahoma City already overcame a 2-1 deficit in the second round against Denver, and, according to The Sporting News’ Dan Treacy, there have been three NBA teams in the past 10 years to face a 2-1 series deficit in two series in the playoffs before winning the title: the 2015 Warriors, the 2019 Raptors and the 2021 Bucks.
The Pacers’ Game 3 win was huge for their chances, but history doesn’t always tell the full story, especially when they’re facing a 68-win Thunder squad.
THE PACERS WIN THE FIRST FINALS GAME IN INDY IN 25 YEARS 🚨🚨
THEY TAKE A 2-1 SERIES LEAD!! pic.twitter.com/1kV5TuzNKl
— NBA (@NBA) June 12, 2025
History of 3-1 NBA playoff leads
Game 4 between the Pacers and Thunder could really be the defining matchup against history. Across the 298 playoff series in NBA history to reach a 3-1 lead, the team with the advantage has gone on to win 285 of them, which is a 95.6 percent rate.
On just 13 occasions has an NBA team overcome a 3-1 series deficit in the playoffs, including just once in the NBA Finals, which was the Cavaliers’ comeback over the Warriors in 2016. With that being said, Oklahoma City’s title chances would dwindle even further with a loss in Indiana on Friday night.
