The Stanley Cup Playoffs have their first finalist. Florida advanced in the East, getting by Carolina 5-3 to win their Eastern Conference Final in five games. Meanwhile, Edmonton has a chance to advance in Dallas on Thursday night. Dallas could not get more than one puck past Stuart Skinner in Game 4 as the Oilers won 4-1. Can the Stars extend the series?
Game 5 faces some more questions with hopefully a few answers.
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A Tale of Two Stars Forwards
Stuart Skinner keeps outperforming Jake Oettinger in this Western Conference Final. Oettinger has allowed 14 goals on 107 shots (.869 save percentage) while Stuart has given up seven goals on 115 shots (.939 save percentage). Oettinger and Dallas looked better in Game 4, but the result was the same. Edmonton executes better offensively.
Dallas did switch to a 12-6 alignment, but Mikko Rantanen nearly played 23 minutes. Situational play is one thing, but that was almost four minutes more than any other forward. Rantanen is tired, and it shows. Three assists in his last seven playoff games and decreasing shot and chance totals are a clear sign.
Can Dallas get recharged going home? The Stars are going to need some bounces and fluky ones. A player like Jason Robertson is finally healthy and may be their best forward currently. He had four shots and a goal in Game 4. His ice time and comfort level have gone up in every game. Edmonton has difficulty containing the forward.
Robertson had goals in consecutive games in Edmonton with a total of nine shots on goal, and may still have better shot props going forward. Currently, BetMGM has Robertson +145 for 3+ shots in Game 5. His anytime goal now stands at +270.
Okay, with how this series has gone. Maybe opting for “secondary” players has worked out better. Do again check out Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at +290 for an anytime goal as well. He has two goals and five assists with 4+ shots in three games this series. His shot prop total of 3+ shots currently is +115.
Player Bets: Jason Robertson 3+ shots (+145 via BetMGM) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 3+ shots (+115 via BetMGM).
Stars and Oilers Series Swing Time
Here is that Thursday update heading into Game 5:
- Edmonton was a -120 favorite to win the series, while Dallas was around EVEN for Game 1
- Game 2 saw Dallas as a -190 favorite to advance, and Edmonton is a +160 underdog.
- Game 3 had Edmonton at -150 while Dallas is the +130 underdog.
- Game 4 had Edmonton at -330 (as high as -370) and Dallas a considerable +270 underdog (some range up to +290).
- Game 5 swung heavily to Edmonton, who is now a -900 favorite while Dallas is now at +600.
Dallas and Edmonton still feels like it could go longer. However, Kris Knoblauch has shown an ability to roll out four forward lines and three defensive pairings despite the star power of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Edmonton has a way of wearing teams out. Dallas looks tired.
Despite all this, the time to make that conservative series spread bet may have been two days ago. Edmonton to win in five or six games now rides in at -400 on most NHL betting sites.
Edmonton does not have Zach Hyman and Connor Brown. That will hurt in the short term. However, Mattias Ekholm returns on Thursday night. The fact that Edmonton in seven is now longer than Dallas in seven speaks volumes. One quirk might be the 4-2 Oilers outcome at +220.
Series Market Prop: Edmonton Oilers in six (+220 via DraftKings).
Can the Stars Figure This Out for One Night?
Hey, the idea here is to have faith that Dallas can extend the series. It becomes a risk worth taking because Dallas did have the occasional outburst against Winnipeg. Once upon a time, they scored five against Stuart Skinner. Here is to one more game.
Last Call: Dallas to win in regulation (+110 via FanDuel).
