The Stanley Cup Playoff games on Monday are fewer in number. There are two contests. One is the “Battle of Florida” and the other is a pivotal Game 5 in Dallas between the Colorado Avalanche and the Stars.
Sunday went as expected after a slight delay, and again it almost felt scripted. Does Monday bring more change, though? Both contests are broadcast on ESPN.
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NHL Playoffs Picks for April 28 Games
Florida Came Home, The Problems Started
The Florida Panthers won two games on the road, looked unbelievable, and then Saturday afternoon happened. Aaron Ekblad returned, looked rusty, and Jon Cooper’s Tampa Bay Lightning exploited this repeatedly. Tampa Bay and Florida is a series that has several lives, maybe nine.
Both teams face questions as to what may happen next. The argument that both teams almost have a home team disadvantage is a valid point. Matthew Tkachuk scored, and then Andrei Vasilevskiy threw up a wall. He stopped 33 of 34 shots overall. Much like Sergei Bobrovsky in the first two games, Vasilevskiy stopped Florida at every turn.
Now, Game 4 is at night, and naturally, Florida is favored yet again (-140 to -150 range). The Tampa Bay Lightning had a strategy and executed it well in Game 3. The harder Florida tried, the better Tampa Bay countered. When it came to expected goals at even strength, Tampa Bay had a 34.27% share but outscored Florida 3-1.
This series resembles a clash of the titans, given that either Florida or Tampa Bay has advanced to the Stanley Cup Final in each of the past five seasons. The only poetic thing is for Tampa Bay to even up the series on Monday night.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay to win on the moneyline +124 via DraftKings
Can Colorado Sustain Healthy, Winning Hockey?
Okay, Colorado played like they did in Game 1 and made sure Game 4 would not go to overtime. There was another surge, and the Dallas Stars had no answers. It became so ugly that Pete DeBoer pulled Jake Oettinger out of mercy. Colorado won Game 4 4-0 and evened their best-of-seven series with Dallas at two games apiece.
Many expected Colorado to up their effort, but 48 shots was on another level. Can this happen two games in a row? That is the biggest question because Colorado is favored again on the road. Right now, the Avalanche are around -140 favorites to win Game 5 on the road. Like Florida, Colorado has been on the minus side of the moneyline every game this series.
First off, Colorado is 11-12 when a series is tied at two, while Dallas is 18-14. However, something feels different.
Colorado again has the momentum, and Gabriel Landeskog is doing what Mikko Rantanen is for Dallas. Rantanen has suffered through some terrible puck luck. However, the underlying key is that Mackenzie Blackwood has made the saves when needed. Colorado’s depth and team just have to learn to hold a lead. Expect them to get that done on Monday.
Top Shelf Pick: Colorado wins in regulation +115 via FanDuel
What About Some Series Shifts?
Earlier in these playoffs, I mentioned series pricing and how it fluctuates significantly. For example, the current numbers for the two series as we enter tonight are as follows.
- Colorado is a -155 favorite to defeat Dallas
- Florida is a -260 favorite to win over Tampa Bay
So, anything can happen. These will swing again no matter what. Even St. Louis, which was around a +1000 longshot after two games, is now a mere +155. Los Angeles and Edmonton are now back to around even after a late Oilers rally on Sunday night.
If there is one to consider, St. Louis may be the choice. The Blues were a period away from winning Game 1 in Winnipeg. Can Connor Hellebuyck be trusted to win a series late? There are some doubts.
Top Series Prop: St. Louis to win the series over Winnipeg +155 via BetMGM
