The Denver Broncos will take on the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card round of the playoffs on Sunday and on paper, it looks like a big mismatch. On one side, you have a team that has been knocking on the door of the Super Bowl for several seasons, looking to finally get in. On the other, you have a team that is in the postseason for the first time in nearly a decade.
The Bills have Josh Allen, a bonafide league MVP candidate. The Broncos have Bo Nix, an impressive but inexperienced rookie.
The Bills have not lost this season at home and were the only team to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs starters.
The Broncos have an uphill climb in front of them, but in a single-game elimination scenario, anything is possible. Sean Payton will have his team ready to play. What do the experts think? Can an upset happen?
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills Wild Card picks
Tyler Dragon, USA TODAY: Bills 30, Broncos 17
Dragon: “The Broncos are ahead of schedule in their rebuild. It’s an accomplishment for Denver to be in the postseason. On the other side, the Bills are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. It’s going to be a tough game for a young, upstart Broncos club in Buffalo. Denver’s stingy defense will make some plays, but the Bills have the more talented roster.
Buffalo hasn’t lost a game at home this season.”
Jeremy Cluff, Arizona Republic: Bills 31, Broncos 20
Cluff: “The Broncos have surpassed our expectations this season, but it would really surprise us if they won at Buffalo, where the Bills are 8-0 this season. Denver is just 4-5 on the road. Highmark Stadium will provide a rude playoff debut to Bo Nix.”
Bleacher Report: Bills 30, Broncos 20
Wes O’Donnell, B/R: “I had to pare this down from nearly 500 words as I realized I was trying to convince myself which team to pick. So, here’s what matters. The Bills haven’t lost their opening-round playoff game since Josh Allen’s postseason debut five years ago.
The Broncos allowed only 18.3 points per game this season, the third-best mark leaguewide. But they were 1-7 against teams with a winning record this season, not including the Week 18 victory over the Chiefs’ backups. An 8.5-point line feels like a lot, but seven of eight panelists are on Buffalo for a reason.
Even if the Bills aren’t dominant offensively, they should be able to force and/or capitalize on Denver turnovers and/or mistakes, particularly late in the game. Whether via a runaway Allen performance or an opportunistic team effort, the Bills are more than capable of covering a two-score spread at home as they jump-start their Super Bowl run.”
Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News: Bills 34, Broncos 17
Iyer: “The Bills are 8-0 at home this season, and the Broncos are 4-5 on the road. Josh Allen has led Buffalo to an average margin of victory of 17 points when playing in Orchard Park. The Broncos’ pass defense isn’t built to slow down Allen, while Buffalo gets a break against rookie Bo Nix making his first playoff start in a hostile environment. The Bills won’t get caught looking ahead to the Ravens, instead making a strong opening statement.”
Bill Bender, The Sporting News: Bills 31, Broncos 21
Bender: “Sean Payton is back in the playoffs with the Broncos. He’s 9-8 S/U in the postseason, and Nix has been impressive as a rookie. That said, Denver was just 4-5 S/U on the road, where Nix had an 85.8 passer rating.
Expect Buffalo to lean on the run early against a stingy Denver defense. The Broncos were 2-6 S/U this season when they allowed more than 100 yards rushing, and Josh Allen presents a problem with scrambling in the pocket. Buffalo will make a strong opening statement in the wild-card round here. Buffalo was 6-0 S/U and 3-3 ATS when favored by six points or more this season.”
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