Through two weeks of the NFL season, upsets have been extremely rare. Big favorites have been escaping by the skin of their teeth – see Dallas and Arizona from last week, which explains why so many entries are still alive in your Survivor contest.
Anyone who’s watched football long enough knows that the underdogs will start barking soon, and Week 3 is shaping up like the slate where the tide turns. I’m predicting a few upsets on Sunday, with the Rams and Jets at the top of the list of underdogs you should target.
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Rams Get Revenge vs Eagles
Full disclosure, I’ll be betting both of these ‘dogs on the moneyline and against the spread. Since the moneyline odds are much longer, and the implied probability much lower, I’ll be devoting 0.4 units to that wager, and a full unit on the spread ticket.
LA is out for revenge in this spot after narrowly falling to Philly in last season’s Divisional Round. Through two weeks, the Los Angeles Rams have looked better on both sides of the ball than the Philadelphia Eagles, ranking 10 spots higher per DVOA (2nd vs 12th).
The Rams been significantly more explosive offensively, with Matthew Stafford ranking four spots higher than Jalen Hurts in expected points added per play. Speaking of Hurts, he’s completed only two passes of 10+ yards, the fewest number of any starting quarterback.
The Eagles offense is operating like a service academy and has become entirely too predictable. They rank 29th in total offense so far, despite playing the Cowboys and Chiefs, two defenses that were shredded by their other opponents.
Defensively, I give the advantage to the Rams as well. LA is generating pressure at a top-7 rate, and only three teams have allowed fewer passing yards. Philadelphia meanwhile, is in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate and has a glaring hole at one of their corner spots. That’s a recipe for disaster with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams lined up on the other side.
Pick: Rams ML (+155)
Jets Shock the Bucs
Moving on to the J-E-T-S, who are touchdown underdogs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been arguably the luckiest team in football through two weeks, and regression is about to smack them in the face.
Let’s start with Baker Mayfield. He’s been praised for his late-game heroics, leading game-winning drives in back-to-back weeks. A closer look at the numbers tells a different story.
Mayfield leads the league in turnover worthy throws, but has yet to be picked off. He’s had six interceptions dropped by enemy defenders, and he also fumbled last week but one of his teammates recovered. Sloppy play is nothing new to Mayfield. He was third in turnover worthy plays last season among QB’s, and fumbled a league-leading 13 times. Mayfield also suffered a knee injury in Week 2, potentially limiting his effectiveness for this matchup.
To make matters worse for Tampa Bay, they’re likely going to be down three starting offensive linemen. It doesn’t look like All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs will play, and neither will right tackle Luke Goedeke or guard Cody Mauch. The Bucs are also on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football, and could easily be looking past New York with a showdown versus the Eagles looming in Week 4.
As for the New York Jets, last week was a disaster against the Bills, but let’s not be a prisoner of the moment. Their offense looked fantastic in Week 1, and the drop off from Justin Fields to Tyrod Taylor is not steep. With Fields hurt and Taylor under center, New York will emphasise its short passing attack and run game. Taylor can dink and dunk his way down the field, and will lean on skill position players like Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall.
Unlike Fields, Taylor doesn’t turn the ball over and rarely takes sacks. He’s top-five all-time among qualified QB’s in interception rate, and has been phenomenal against the spread. Taylor is 34-21-4 all-time ATS, and has covered at a 70% clip as an underdog of a touchdown or more.
I’m putting Tampa Bay on upset alert this week, so don’t be surprised if that’s the most popular Survivor pick that goes down in flames. Find several NFL betting promos on BetMGM, including a profit boost for this NFL upset pick.
Pick: Jets ML (+260)
