Week 16 is here, meaning we only have three full slates left this season. Some might argue that there are only two remaining with Week 18 being tainted by teams benching players. Either way, we have 11 matchups to analyze this week, and there are plenty of ways to put together a strong DFS lineup for these games.
In DFS, it all comes down to finding edges over your opponents or the field. There are plenty of ways to attack this slate and find edges over other players, but we are given a finite salary, so we have to get a bit creative.
Without further ado, here are the Sporting News’ optimal lineups and best picks for Week 16 DFS slates on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
DraftKings DFS Picks Week 16: NFL DFS picks for GPP tournaments
Sunday Main Slate, $50,000 salary
QB: Caleb Williams, Bears vs. Lions ($5,500)
Call me a glutton for punishment, but we’re going back to Caleb Williams for the second time in three weeks. Even though he’s looked atrocious the last two weeks, it’s pretty difficult not to build out a few lineups with Williams priced at just $5,500. The Lions’ defense is in shambles and is in a state where they’re capable of surrendering four touchdowns to any competent offense. While the Bears may stretch the definition of competent, you don’t have to squint very hard to see the Bears getting it done on offense and pushing this game into a shootout. Williams just put up 26.1 DK points against the Lions on Thanksgiving, and he’ll see a markedly worse version of this defense on Sunday.
WEEK 16 FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions at Bears ($7,500)
It’s wheels all the way up for Jahmyr Gibbs. David Montgomery (knee) is out for the foreseeable future, so Gibbs is in line to see virtually all of the work in this backfield. We’ve seen Gibbs without Montgomery a few times, and it’s been spectacular.
Jahmyr Gibbs without David Montgomery (three career starts):
18-82-0
20-126-1
31-189-1— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) December 16, 2024
We’ve spent the whole season wondering what things would look like if someone consolidated the work in this backfield. That time has now come; don’t overthink it, and jam Gibbs into lineups everywhere.
RB: James Conner, Cardinals at Panthers ($7,100)
We may have the chalkiest running back duo on the slate, but that’s okay. When strong plays are staring you right in the face, you just have to take them. James Conner is one of those plays this week. Much like Gibbs, injuries are allowing Conner to take on a larger workload in the Arizona offense. Emari Demercado is on IR, and Trey Benson suffered an ankle injury last week. If Benson can’t suit up, we could see Conner play 80 percent of snaps and handle virtually every touch. Even if Benson suits up, Demercado’s absence should allow Conner to take on a hefty role in the passing game. The potential for a massive workload is great, and a matchup with the Panthers makes things even better. There’s no better spot for running backs than Carolina; they rank 32nd in total rushing defense and 30th in EPA per rush. Conner is on a hot streak, scoring 56 DK points in the last two weeks, and he should keep the good times rolling.
WR: Puka Nacua, Rams at Jets ($8,000)
There are few receivers playing better football than Puka Nacua right now. In the world of fantasy, there aren’t many receivers who are more valuable than him. Nacua currently leads all receivers in targets per route run and fantasy points per route run. He’s one of the few receivers who you can almost expect to command a 30-percent target share each week. It seems strange to say, but a matchup with the Jets makes Nacua a particularly appealing option. The Jets’ secondary has been horrendous as of late, ranking 29th in EPA per dropback in the last month. This is a defense that is coming off a game where they allowed McCorkle (Mac) Jones to throw for 285 yards. Couple that with the fact that the Jets’ offense is showing signs of life, things are setting up quite nicely for Nacua to have a productive day.
WR: Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals at Panthers ($5,400)
It never hurts to fully target the Panthers’ defense. We’ve got James Conner already and we’ll be tacking on Marvin Harrison Jr. as well. Harrison has been a bit of a let-down relative to his lofty expectations, but he’s shown an ability to generate explosive plays that can allow him to reach a respectable weekly ceiling. If there was a matchup where Harrison would reach that ceiling, it would be the Panthers. Carolina ranks bottom-10 in both yards per pass play and EPA per dropback. Most importantly, this defense is surrendering 29.9 points per game, meaning the Cardinals should be in the red zone quite often in this one. A two-touchdown day from Harrison would be much appreciated.
WEEK 16 FANTASY FOOTBALL ROSTER MANAGEMENT
Lessons Learned | Sleepers | Busts | Usage Report | DFS Values | Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em | Weather
WR: Keenan Allen, Bears vs. Lions ($5,300)
With three talented receivers on the field, things can get a bit messy when it comes to identifying Caleb Williams’ path to success. After seeing DJ Moore used like Wan’Dale Robinson last week, it’s hard to get too excited about him.
43 of DJ Moore’s 46 receiving yards came after the catch in Week 15.
DJM was targeted eight times for a total of three air yards.
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 17, 2024
We’ll be going with a Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze double stack this week instead. Allen has seen plenty of volume this year, drawing at least 30 percent of the targets in two of his last four games. This trend could continue against the Lions, who rank 2nd in targets allowed to slot receivers. Expect to see Allen draw plenty of looks in what should be a pass-heavy game for the Bears.
TE: Ben Sinnott, Commanders vs. Eagles ($2,800)
It’s 4th & 12 on our own 27, and we’re going to punt (at tight end). Ben Sinnott comes in at a measly $2,800 and will finally have the opportunity to operate as the Commanders’ TE1. Zach Ertz went down with a concussion last week, and Sinnott stepped in following his injury, holding a route participation of 65 percent after Ertz left the game. The Commanders’ offense will have to be firing on all cylinders to beat the Eagles this week, and we’ll take our chances on Sinnott being able to earn targets ahead of Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown.
FLEX: Rome Odunze, Bears vs. Lions ($5,100)
As previously mentioned, we’re going with the Odunze-Allen double stack with Caleb Williams this week. With Odunze in this lineup, we’re betting on him finally converting on the high-value looks that he’s been seeing throughout the year. Odunze leads the team with a 14.3-yard aDOT and has seen 19 deep targets (targets 20-plus yards downfield) on the year. He also leads the team with 13 endzone targets this season. These downfield and endzone looks are what allow players to rack up fantasy points on limited volume. Against a depleted secondary, there’s hope that Odunze can haul in a high-value target or two.
D/ST: Arizona Cardinals, at Panthers ($3,200)
This lineup has the patented WR/RB/DEF stack. Bryce Young showed his true colors last week, turning the ball over four times against a banged-up Dallas defense. He’ll have to do a lot more before Carolina sheds their reputation of being an offense to target in fantasy.
FanDuel DFS Picks Week 16: NFL DFS picks for GPP tournaments
Sunday Main Slate, $60,000 salary cap
QB: Matthew Stafford, Rams at Jets ($7,100)
Matthew Stafford is a strong play on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so we’d be remiss if we didn’t include him in one of these lineups. As discussed in the Puka Nacua blurb in the DK lineup, the Jets’ secondary has uncharacteristically struggled recently, ranking 29th in EPA per dropback over the last month. On the other side of the ball, the Rams’ passing attack has been on fire, ranking 6th in EPA per dropback since Nacua and Cooper Kupp both returned. The Jets’ offense is (finally) starting to find its groove and this could realistically turn into a back-and-forth battle between two veteran quarterbacks and their talented receiving corps.
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions at Bears ($8,300)
Gibbs is carrying over from our DK lineup this week. He’ll be one of the most popular plays in DFS this week, and it comes with good reason. The Detroit backfield leads all backfields in expected fantasy points per game and Gibbs is now in (almost) complete control of the touches. He’s a no-brainer against a Chicago defense that has struggled to defend the run.
RB: Alexander Mattison, Raiders vs. Jaguars ($5,600)
With a couple of studs in this lineup, there will be some salary-savers so we can stay within the $60,000 budget. Alexander Mattison comes in at a cool $5,600 and is worth a look as the last man standing in the Las Vegas backfield. Zamir White and Sincere McCormick are both on IR, leaving Mattison as the 1A for the Raiders. Ameer Abdullah will mix in on passing downs, but Mattison should see the bulk of the work. Any running back who holds a 1A role is a viable DFS option against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has struggled against the run all year, ranking bottom-10 in total rushing defense and EPA per rush. In the last three weeks, they’ve allowed two backs to cross the century mark. Leaning on the Raiders’ offense is gross, but this is a spot where Mattison can get it going.
WR: Puka Nacua, Rams at Jets ($8,900)
With Stafford already in the lineup, it shouldn’t be shocking to see Nacua as the No. 1 receiver. Nacua is also featured in the DK lineup, so if you want to see me wax poetic about Nacua’s talent and fantasy value, just scroll up a bit.
WR: Davante Adams, Jets vs. Rams ($8,400)
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are determined to prove that they still got it. This duo has been on a tear recently with Adams scoring 24.4 and 41.3 FD points in the last two weeks. Adams has been seeing elite usage since the Jets’ Week 12 bye, drawing 11.3 targets per game for a 31.5-percent target share in the last three weeks. We’re also seeing Rodgers throwing up his classic goal line fade to Adams, which has provided a significant boost to Adams’ fantasy output. This lineup is betting on Rams vs. Jets providing some offensive fireworks through the air, so we’ll be riding the hot hand of Adams.
WR: Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars at Raiders ($7,300)
What’s not to love about Brian Thomas Jr.? He has the speed and talent to create big plays and he’s now seeing elite volume with Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram injured.
Brian Thomas Jr. in the last three weeks (post Gabe Davis injury):
- 29.4 percent target share
- 0.30 TPRR
- 46.7 percent air yards share
- 37.5 percent first read target share
This guy is seeing WR1 usage and has the production to back it up, averaging 19.9 FD points per game during this stretch. The crazy thing is that he has not caught a deep target (target 20-plus yards downfield) in any of these games. The volume provides a floor and we will hopefully see him reach his ceiling with a long ball or two.
TE: Ben Sinnott, Commanders vs. Eagles ($4,400)
We’re lining up to punt in the FanDuel lineup as well. Rookie Ben Sinnott appears in both of our lineups this week ahead of his TE1 debut for the Commanders. It’s hard to know what his role will look like, but we know he was used as the primary pass-catching tight end last week after Ertz’s injury. It also helps that his target competition is anything but stiff.
FLEX: Rome Odunze, Bears vs. Lions ($5,900)
The final player who can be found in both lineups is Rome Odunze. Bears vs. Lions has the highest total on the main slate so we’re looking to get multiple pieces from this one, with an emphasis on Jahmyr Gibbs and Chicago pass catchers. As discussed in the DK lineup, Odunze sees the high-leverage looks that could allow him to have a big day against a suspect secondary.
D/ST: Atlanta Falcons, vs. Giants ($3,100)
We won’t get to see Tim Boyle at quarterback, but Drew Lock doesn’t make the Giants’ offensive outlook much better. The Atlanta defense has finally started to generate pressure in recent weeks which could have Lock in a blender.
