Week 15’s early Sunday action showed us that even struggling teams still have fight in them — the Saints took the Commanders down to the wire, the Cowboys apparently took offense to their underdog status in Carolina and blasted the Panthers, and the Jets won a back-and-forth battle in Jacksonville with some throwback heroics:
TAE 👏 ADAMS 👏#NYJvsJAX on FOX pic.twitter.com/9FqFL48Tbm
— New York Jets (@nyjets) December 15, 2024
And we watched heavyweight battles in the late window, with the Bills holding off the Lions in Detroit and the Eagles handling the red-hot Steelers with relative ease. The Athletic NFL writers Nick Baumgardner, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on all of these storylines and more.
After what Josh Allen did in Detroit, and Lamar Jackson’s five-touchdown day in East Rutherford, who’s your MVP pick at this point?
Nguyen: Lamar was my pick early in the year and he’s still playing phenomenally, but I’ll give Allen the edge. He’s dominating on the ground and through the air, and he’s doing it without great skill players around him. James Cook might be the Bills’ best skill player, and he’s very good but not an All-Pro type of player. Yet, there just doesn’t seem to be an answer for the Bills offense right now. They demolished the Lions defense on Sunday. They’ve punted three times in the last two weeks, haven’t turned the ball over, and scored 90 points. Buffalo’s defense seems to be getting worse week to week, while the Ravens defense looks to be improving. There are legitimate arguments for Jackson’s MVP case as well — I’m more undecided with a few games left this season — but whoever wins, this is a great competition between two worthy players. Last year, it felt like Jackson was the MVP by default. He played well, but no one else really had an outstanding season. This year, if Jackson wins it, he’ll have to edge out a player who would likely win in most other years.
Baumgardner: I’m going with Allen right now. Buffalo’s offense is an absolute machine when he’s under control and the Bills are working to achieve run-pass balance. Some of the throws he ripped in Detroit on Sunday were eye-popping — stuff only he and Patrick Mahomes can do. As is the case with Jackson in Baltimore, when Buffalo can get off to a good start and get Allen involved in the run game, this offense is arguably the hardest in the league to deal with, simply because it takes so much to get Allen on the ground and/or keep him in the pocket. He takes vicious hits and gets right up like a mosquito just bit him. When Allen is right, he’s the most dominant offensive player in the league. And right now, he’s right.
Pompei: It will probably be decided in the next three weeks, and it’s very close. Putting up 48 points at Detroit certainly helps Allen’s case, as did beating the Chiefs one month ago. But when the Ravens and Bills played in September, Jackson had the edge in a Baltimore victory. Jackson has superior numbers, including average yards per attempt (8.8 to 7.9), completion percentage (68 percent to 65), passing yards (3,580 to 3,395), rushing yards (678 to 416), touchdown passes (34 to 25) and interceptions (3 to 5). But Allen has two more wins. Too bad we couldn’t end the season with another Ravens-Bills game.
We asked a version of this a few weeks ago, but let’s revisit: Are the Eagles or the Lions the best team in the NFC?
Baumgardner: Detroit’s defense is currently held together with duct tape. And despite Nick Sirianni seemingly getting into arguments with coaches during wins, Philadelphia looks to be the team playing the cleanest ball right now. Though it’s fair to ask how sustainable it all is. The Lions, meanwhile, have been trending toward one of these days defensively for about a month. The front seven is decimated because of injuries and things got worse on Sunday when star defensive tackle Alim McNeill left with an apparent knee injury. Detroit’s offense can still put up points with anybody, but it sort of feels like Jared Goff’s unit will have to be close to perfect for Detroit to withstand such a lack of firepower defensively. (It’s also hard to totally dog on the Lions here, as Buffalo looks like the best team in the league at the moment.)
Nguyen: The Eagles are the best team in the NFC. The injuries were already mounting for the Lions defense before this week, and McNeill and defensive back Carlton Davis had to leave the Bills game early. The defense has given up a combined 79 points in the last two weeks. For the Lions to win, they’re going to have to win shootouts. The Eagles’ passing offense is inconsistent, but they can always fall back on their running game. With 10:29 left in the game on Sunday, they ran the entire clock out with a death-by-a-thousand-papercuts drive. The Eagles can win with several different game scripts.
Pompei: Given the depleted state of the Lions defense, you’d have to say the Eagles have an edge at the moment. If the Lions can regain some of their wounded and regain some of their lost momentum, they still can leapfrog the Eagles; the Lions at full strength probably were the best team in the NFL this season. But they aren’t at full strength, not close to it on defense. Solid coaching and industrious backups can sometimes hold the fort for a while, but eventually, cracks begin to show when a team has lost the kind of talent the Lions have. That was very evident when they struggled to contain an efficient offense Sunday. To get where the Lions want to go, they will face similar challenges.
The Chiefs won a game that didn’t come down to the last play in Cleveland. They also had Patrick Mahomes limp off the field, but if Mahomes is healthy: Do you feel better about their three-peat chances after watching a convincing road win?
Pompei: Beating the three-win Browns by 14 points shouldn’t change any opinions of the Chiefs, but they were always positioned to start playing their best football now. They have been really good all season, despite the worries over close margins of victory. We will get a better feel for whether they are peaking in the next three weeks when they play three teams in the playoff hunt — the Texans, Steelers and Broncos. They aren’t going to be going against Jameis Winston and Dorian Thompson-Robinson in those games.
Baumgardner: It didn’t make me feel especially better about the Chiefs. Even before going down, Mahomes was 19-of-38 for 158 yards in this game. The Chiefs ran the ball OK but still wound up below 4 yards per carry while giving up better than 6 per attempt on the ground to Cleveland. Credit Kansas City’s defense (and Winston) for the four interceptions, but if the Browns get a cleaner game from the QB it likely would’ve been the type of down-to-the-wire game we’re often talking about with K.C. Travis Kelce is still Travis Kelce, but not the guy of five years ago. Xavier Worthy has juice, but I’m not sure it’s enough. In general, I’m not sure the Chiefs have enough. They do have Mahomes, though, and if he’s healthy, they simply can’t be counted out.
Nguyen: After some lackluster performances, the defense has looked better, but it doesn’t look like the elite unit it was early this season. Losing cornerback Jaylen Watson has hurt the Chiefs’ ability to play man coverage and blitz. The offense has to be much better for me to feel confident about their ability to compete for another Super Bowl. They did just enough today in Cleveland, but they had some rough stretches during which they couldn’t move the ball. The tackles are a huge problem and D.J. Humphries, who started last week before hurting his hamstring, didn’t look good in his first game with the Chiefs. Maybe Marquise Brown can provide a spark for this offense. Their skill players have the punch to get it done, but life will continue to be hard on this offense as long as Mahomes is under pressure. With all that in mind, doubting this Chiefs team isn’t wise, but their margin of error is very small and they’ll need Mahomes to be superhuman again in the postseason.
How dangerous would the Bucs be if they make the playoffs, considering their recent play, and the fact that they handled the Eagles and nearly won in Detroit last postseason (and did win in Detroit earlier this regular season)?
Baumgardner: Bottom line: When Tampa decides to stop the run, it’s a very different team. Not only did Tampa nearly win in Detroit last postseason, it already did so earlier this year. A lot of it depends on how under control Baker Mayfield plays, but if he gets more help like he did Sunday from Bucky Irving, then the Bucs become that much more dangerous. Any team that keeps a Jim Harbaugh club under 35 rushing yards is double-tough in my book. Todd Bowles in a one-game situation is not an easy coach to run offense against. So it always depends on the matchup, but if Tampa continues to play well up front defensively then it’s a dangerous team and would be a tough out.
Pompei: They aren’t an elite team, but the Bucs are a solid team, and sometimes solid teams go a long way in the playoffs. Having won four straight, including Sunday in convincing fashion, they are a team with momentum, and that momentum is likely to build in their last three games (against the Cowboys, Panthers and Saints). Confidence matters in the playoffs, and the Bucs do not lack for it. It’s a shame Chris Godwin was lost for the season because he could have elevated the Bucs to another level. They also need to get safety Antoine Winfield back to be the best they can be.
Nguyen: The Buccaneers are the very definition of a wild-card team. They have an explosive offense with an aggressive quarterback; offensive coordinator Liam Coen has been extremely impressive in his first year. He keeps finding ways for the offense to remain productive despite injuries. They have a creative run game, their offensive line is playing well and Mayfield is getting the ball downfield. Their pass defense gives up a lot of big plays, but their run defense is good and they’ll blitz to try to create chaos. They don’t want quarterbacks to sit back and pick apart their secondary. If they have a lucky game on defense, in which their pressures are getting home, they are certainly capable of a postseason upset.
The Commanders have back-to-back wins after a three-game losing streak, though they did not exactly look impressive holding on in New Orleans. Is this team capable of winning a road playoff game (or two)?
Nguyen: The Saints had no business almost winning this game, but the Commanders offense is fractured. Losing center Tyler Biadasz before the game due to sickness and Zach Ertz because of a concussion, affected this unit. Still, they had plenty of chances to cement this game and failed to capitalize. They struggled to run the ball against the Saints, who have one of the worst run defenses in the league. Terry McLaurin is by far their best weapon, but Kliff Kingsbury doesn’t move his receivers around, making it too easy to take him out of the game. Their best plays on Sunday were Jayden Daniels scrambles — it’s hard to live that way in the playoffs. They’ll have a puncher’s chance because of Daniels’ talent, but the rookie has a lot of weight on his shoulders right now.
Pompei: If the Commanders start playing the way they did earlier in the season when they beat the Bengals and Cardinals on the road, then they can be a threat to win away from home in the postseason. They are playing better now than they did in November, but there is room for improvement. They almost lost to Spencer Rattler on Sunday. They won’t be seeing Rattler in the playoffs. Their game against the Eagles next week will be a measuring stick. One month ago, the Commanders lost to the Eagles by eight points. Now they get them at home in a game that could have big repercussions for Washington.
Baumgardner: It all depends on the matchup and how much they can keep Daniels and the offense on schedule and out of danger-zone scenarios. Honestly, I’ve been waiting to see Daniels run into a wall or hit a funk around this part of the schedule — particularly after teams have had time to study Kingsbury again. But outside of a recent three-game, four-interception stretch, that really hasn’t happened. I think C.J. Stroud was a better player as a rookie, but Daniels’ first year doesn’t feel completely unlike that. Or like a younger Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville. I think Daniels is a gamer, and tough enough to deliver in the postseason — so long as he’s protected.
The Raiders, the Titans, the Giants, the Jets … understanding that we could have staffing and roster changes at each spot, what do you see as the best landing spot for a highly drafted quarterback in 2025?
Baumgardner: As dysfunctional as they are, the Jets do have some solid young offensive linemen even if it hasn’t always looked that way this year. The Raiders could make similar arguments, though both teams (and really every team on this list) have to invest in a veteran bridge quarterback ahead of selecting one of these 2025 draft quarterbacks in the top 10. Be it Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward, the quarterbacks in this class are going to need a little time to adjust. If you throw the weight of your franchise at them without any type of buffer, you’re running the risk of falling down the hole Bryce Young is only just now trying to climb out of. The Giants and Titans have a lot of offensive line work ahead before they can expect a rookie QB to thrive.
Nguyen: I wouldn’t say there is an ideal situation among that group, especially with potential coaching changes coming up for three of the four teams (the Titans might be the only team that keeps their head coach). However, if we are just looking at building blocks, the Raiders may have the best situation. They have a young offensive line that has played better in recent weeks, Brock Bowers is already a top-three tight end and Jakobi Meyers is a very quarterback-friendly target. The Raiders also have some talent on defense with Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins. Of the four teams, the Raiders have the best chance of turning things around with another good draft and a capable quarterback.
Pompei: Based on current coaching staffs, you’d say the Titans or Giants. Brian Daboll couldn’t make it work with Daniel Jones, but he had success with Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa at Alabama and with Josh Allen in Buffalo. Offensive coordinator Mike Kafka was part of Patrick Mahomes’ development. Titans coach Brian Callahan hasn’t made Will Levis into a Pro Bowler, but he did good work with Joe Burrow, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford and Peyton Manning. The Titans have the nucleus of a really good offensive line, but they need another piece. If they can find a right tackle and add another wide receiver, Tennessee could be an inviting spot for a young QB.
(Top photo: Nic Antaya / Getty Images)
