The NFL inadvertently gave us a gift with the Buffalo Bills visiting the Detroit Lions in Week 15.
This game won’t lack oomph just because both teams are playoff-bound already. The Lions don’t want to loosen their grip on the NFC’s top seed, much less the NFC North lead. And last week’s shootout loss in Los Angeles is more than enough to wake the Bills up.
Our writers Zak Keefer, Mike Sando and Jeff Howe tackle this potential Super Bowl LIX preview in our roundtable previewing the rest of Week 15’s schedule. Also on the menu this week: The Philadelphia Eagles, drama and all, host the cross-state Pittsburgh Steelers in another clash of first-place teams, and we ponder the futures of quarterbacks Sam Darnold and Derek Carr.
Sean McDermott and the Bills defense are under scrutiny after last week’s shootout loss to the Rams. The Lions are favored to win it all and just keep finding ways to win. What do you make of this potential Super Bowl preview on Sunday?
Keefer: For starters, I can’t wait to watch. What a championship matchup this would be — two hungry fan bases who’ve suffered through decades of heartbreak and who’ve yet to taste Super Bowl success. Both have been up against it in recent weeks, as well. The Bills, after beating each of last year’s Super Bowl teams in successive games, flopped in Los Angeles, ending their win streak at seven. The Lions won three games in 12 days but have an injury list that feels two pages long. Key will be if a bruised Lions defense can slow MVP front-runner Josh Allen. “A freak,” Detroit linebackers coach Kelvin Sheppard called him. Both teams are going to light up the scoreboard. The difference will be which defense can find a way to get a stop in the fourth quarter.
Sando: I’m interested in how the head coaches handle late-game strategies. Dan Campbell’s fourth-down daring was a big part of the story for Detroit last week. Sean McDermott’s decision to approve a quarterback sneak at the risk of losing a critical timeout hurt Buffalo in its game. Both coaches have built up a lot of equity, but as the playoffs near, both will find themselves under additional scrutiny.
Howe: I’m curious to see if the Lions take elements from the Rams’ strategy last week, as they got 270 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns from Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. The Lions may be able to expose similar matchup advantages with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams or Sam LaPorta. If the Rams uncovered something in the Bills defense that can be replicated by some of the Bills’ top-tier playoff competition, it’s going to make their Super Bowl trek much more difficult. Allen can do it all when he’s on the field, but he can’t play defense, too.
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Buffalo and Detroit, forever connected, can finally dream of a Rust Belt Super Bowl
There seems to be concerns over the Eagles’ passing game and a possible Jalen Hurts-A.J. Brown rift has been made public. Any small-picture or big-picture concerns as Philadelphia prepares to meet the Steelers on Sunday?
Keefer: Something about the Eagles and drama — it always seems to follow them despite overwhelming success the last four years under coach Nick Sirianni. I’m not putting much stock into this purported beef: Brown wants the passing game to be better, and Philly needs it to be better, because skating past the three-win Panthers isn’t how this team needs to be playing as we inch toward January. As well as the defense is playing, and as well as Saquon Barkley’s playing, the Eagles remain the Lions’ biggest threat in the NFC. But if the late-season struggles continue, a painful playoff exit and dicey offseason could follow.
Sando: Does every Eagles defeat feel like three? It’s been so long since Philly lost, I’ve almost forgotten. The last real controversy flowed from a victory, against Cleveland, when Sirianni feuded with Eagles fans. We’re conditioned to wait for some sort of drama to materialize. The Eagles do not disappoint. There’s something swirling beneath the surface there. I’m waiting to see how the team handles its next stumble.
Howe: They’ve overcome drama before and have won nine in a row, so I’m more than willing to give the Eagles the benefit of the doubt. But I’m also not going to dismiss what’s transpired over the past week. The Eagles are playing winning football. They’re relying on their obvious strength, which is the ground game, and playing complementary football. Do they care about getting over the hump in the playoffs or putting up stats? Because they’re putting together a style that can carry them a long way in the postseason. If it falls apart, we’ll look at this as a likely tipping point.
Six teams — the Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots and Washington Commanders — are coming off the latest bye in the league this year. Ask players, and you get a variety of opinions on how the league handles distributing byes. How would you fix bye weeks in the NFL, especially with the league considering an 18-game schedule in the future?
Keefer: Here’s a solution: two byes. That way players get a break early in the season and late in the year. Hopefully, this would ease the physical strain on the players, who won’t have to play a game every week for three straight months. Players tend to hate the early October byes because that leaves them without a break in November and December — when the games really start to matter and the toll of the season really takes hold.
Sando: I’m fine with the current setup and haven’t heard teams complaining too loudly. The second bye makes sense once the schedules lengthen by another game.
Howe: The two byes with the 18-game schedule is a given. I surely wouldn’t have any issue with two byes now, either. When the schedule comes out, you can always talk yourself into whether you’ve gotten the bye at the right time or wrong time, but that stuff always changes with injuries, winning streaks or losing streaks. The NFL has an unbalanced schedule (with a fair formula), so there will be reasons to complain about anything. Even with two byes, there’s no perfect way to evenly distribute them.
Sam Darnold is playing like an MVP as the Bears come to Minnesota on Monday night. He’s on a one-year deal with the Vikings. Do you envision him coming back with J.J. McCarthy in the fold? What kind of money could this version of Darnold command on the open market?
Keefer: If I’m Minnesota, I’m working to keep Darnold. He’s just 27, remember, and the Vikings are playing about as well as any team in the league not named the Lions. Why not give him a chance to stay? To keep chasing a championship? There’s no guarantee McCarthy becomes The Guy, and rushing him into the lineup with a team that’s clearly ready to compete for a Super Bowl could backfire tremendously. But Darnold won’t come cheap. It wouldn’t surprise me if QB-needy teams — in a draft year light on star power at the position — are offering deals north of $35 million per season for Darnold. Or more. In their minds, he’s a much better bet than taking a rookie in this year’s class.
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Vikings’ Sam Darnold dilemma: Has he played so well that they can’t let him go?
Sando: I’m not quite agreeing with the MVP premise on Darnold, who ranks 14th in EPA per pass play for an offense that ranks about the same on a per-play basis. I’m not expecting the Vikings to come off their plan to ride with McCarthy in the future unless Darnold leads a deep playoff push. Once Darnold hits the market, he should have multiple suitors and could command in the $35 million range annually. We do need to see how this season finishes, though.
Howe: I think Darnold will get something in the middle of Kirk Cousins’ four-year, $180 million deal and Baker Mayfield’s three-year, $100 million pact. It would help his case if Sean McVay disciples Zac Robinson or Liam Coen got head-coaching jobs, considering Darnold’s success with Kevin O’Connell. While I think there’s a valid argument for keeping Darnold and the team’s championship aspirations intact, it wouldn’t be terrific asset management to bury McCarthy for another couple of years. I also think O’Connell has done more than enough with his quarterbacks to believe there will be a smooth transition with McCarthy next season.
The Saints host the Commanders and could finish the season without Derek Carr, who fractured his left hand on Sunday. Carr has two years left on a four-year deal. It hasn’t worked so far in New Orleans. What does his future look like? What should the Saints do at quarterback in the offseason?
Keefer: This will be the decision staring at the Saints’ new head coach the minute he walks in the door. Carr was never more than a stopgap in New Orleans while the franchise figured out what to do in the post-Drew Brees era. If it is time to move on and find a young replacement, the problem is interim coach Darren Rizzi keeps winning and the Saints keep going the wrong way in the draft order — they’re currently slated to pick 10th. While it’s not impossible to find a franchise quarterback outside of the top 10 (see: Bo Nix), it’s certainly harder. And that was in a year loaded with quarterback talent. This year isn’t. To land one of the marquee talents, a team has to be inside the top five. The Saints haven’t picked that high since 2006.
Sando: Getting out of the Carr deal and restarting with a long runway is what I’d prefer to do. The Saints could also draft a quarterback outside the top 10, using Carr as a bridge in an effort to keep the team competitive. As uninspiring as Carr has been, the Saints have been roughly league-average on offense with him on the field over the past two seasons (-0.01 EPA per play) and much worse (-0.24 per play) without him. Their third-down conversion rate with Carr (42 percent) far surpasses their rate without him (25 percent). Their rate of explosive pass completions is 60 percent higher with him.
Howe: Unless the Saints wind up with a premium pick and fall in love with Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders, they should consider going all in on Arch Manning in 2026. The New Orleans native would be a godsend for the Saints. The problem there, though, is Manning might be the early favorite for the No. 1 pick in that draft, and they won’t finish with the worst record in the league with Carr at QB. This might be drastic and I don’t really expect to see it happen, but I’d consider taking a QB with a Friday pick, moving on from Carr, resetting the books by unloading other veterans who won’t be part of the long-term solution and looking to start anew with Manning in 2026. Call it a soft tank.
(Top photo of Justin Jefferson and Sam Darnold: Todd Rosenberg / Getty Images)
