The NFL regular season is in the books after an eventful Week 18. For the top teams in our final regular-season power rankings, that means it’s time to get ready for the playoffs. For the 18 teams lingering at the bottom of this list, it’s time to figure out what went wrong and get ready for 2025. We’re trying to help in that endeavor with one lesson learned this season from all 32 teams.
1. Detroit Lions (15-2)
Last week: 4
Sunday: Beat Minnesota Vikings 31-9
One lesson learned: “Next man up” may have its limits
Every football coach has said the phrase, “Next man up,” roughly one million times. It’s the sport’s reflex response to injuries, as in, “We don’t make excuses around here, the backup will come in and play just fine.” But the Lions’ rash of injuries this year could show the ultimate fallacy of that argument. This team has done everything right but has 16 players on injured reserve heading into the playoffs. Making matters worse, starting cornerback Terrion Arnold left Sunday night’s game in a walking boot.
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2. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
Last week: 1
Sunday: Lost to New England Patriots 23-16
One lesson learned: Special players matter
Buffalo traded Stefon Diggs and released Mitch Morse, Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer last offseason, and this still looks like the most dangerous Bills team of this window. Josh Allen is the reason. The Bills quarterback had 40 touchdowns, the fourth-most in the league, and only eight turnovers, the fewest among the NFL’s top 10 quarterbacks. Allen started and played one play Sunday to extend his consecutive starts streak to 115 and then hit the bench as Buffalo lost a meaningless game (for them).
3. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
Last week: 3
Sunday: Lost to Denver Broncos 38-0
One lesson learned: Patrick Mahomes is the league’s MIP
That’s Most Important Player. There’s a great three-way race between Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson for MVP this year, but given truth serum, every coach in the league would take Mahomes at quarterback. He’s 15-1 this year as a starter (he sat out Sunday), and since 2018, he is 103-26 and has won three Super Bowls and played in another. Mahomes finished 10th in the league in EPA per dropback this season (.13). He’s still the best guy doing it right now.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Last week: 5
Sunday: Beat New York Giants 20-13
One lesson learned: Running backs aren’t obsolete
There is some nuance to this lesson. The Giants are getting a lot of grief for letting Barkley go given that he rushed for 2,005 yards for their division rival this season despite sitting out Sunday. But their decision probably should be remembered only as “bad” and not “historically terrible.” Barkley would not have made the impact in New York that he made in Philly, where he put an offense with every other piece over the top. Expect good but not great teams to try to copy this model well into the future.
Is the run game back? Four of the most valuable RB seasons in the last decade occurred in the last 2 seasons.
Broke it down in the link below. pic.twitter.com/PEUZDJxzN0
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) January 3, 2025
5. Minnesota Vikings (14-3)
Last week: 2
Sunday: Lost to Detroit Lions 31-9
One lesson learned: Don’t give up on quarterbacks
Sunday night wasn’t the best argument for this lesson, but Sam Darnold is sixth in passer rating (102.5) and fifth in touchdown passes (35) this season. This is after being picked third in 2018 and then given up on by three teams and basically every NFL fan. Now we’ll see if he can bounce back from an 18-for-41 effort against the Lions that registered a 55.5 passer rating.
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6. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
Last week: 6
Saturday: Beat Cleveland Browns 35-10
One lesson learned: Thirty is the new 20
Maybe that’s an exaggeration, but there’s no question Derrick Henry would have gotten more attention in free agency if he wasn’t 31 years old. He was 30 last offseason, and that’s traditionally considered the cliff for elite running backs. Not for Henry, who rushed for 1,921 yards this season and has made the Ravens offense one of the most dangerous in the league heading into the playoffs.
Derrick Henry is the first player in NFL history with 1,900+ rush yards in multiple seasons. #RavensFlock #TitanUp
— Tony Holzman-Escareno (@FrontOfficeNFL) January 5, 2025
7. Washington Commanders (12-5)
Last week: 7
Sunday: Beat Dallas Cowboys 23-19
One lesson learned: Winning the press conference is overrated
The Commanders were considered last year’s coaching carousel losers after Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson decided to return to Detroit, and Washington had to “settle” for Dan Quinn as head coach. It turns out Quinn’s positive approach and decision to hire Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator were just what this Commanders team needed, and Washington is now in the playoffs for the second time since 2015. This is the first time the franchise has won more than 11 games since the 1991 Super Bowl season.
8. Green Bay Packers (11-6)
Last week: 8
Sunday: Lost to Chicago Bears 24-22
One lesson learned: Don’t play in the NFC North
Despite Sunday’s dud, which Jordan Love left after 12 passes because of an elbow injury that resulted in numbness in his hand, Green Bay is one of the five best teams in its conference. The problem is the Packers aren’t close to being in the top two in their division because of the Vikings and Lions, who have beaten them four times this season (by an average of 4.25 points per game). Green Bay starts the playoffs with the NFC East champion Eagles, and Love said he’ll be ready to play.
9. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Last week: 9
Sunday: Lost to Seattle Seahawks 30-25
One lesson learned: Don’t forget about Sean McVay
After the Rams’ 5-12 2022 season, they have now made the playoffs twice, and that’s after starting this season 1-4. This team is in the bottom half of the league in scoring (367 points) and scoring defense (386 points allowed) and is the only playoff team with a negative point differential. And, still, the Rams won nine of their final 12 games despite Sunday’s loss, which Matthew Stafford sat out because they had locked up the NFC West.
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10. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
Last week: 10
Sunday: Beat Las Vegas Raiders 34-20
One lesson learned: Hire Jim Harbaugh
Harbaugh was out of NFL coaching for 10 years. Now he’s back and the Chargers are in the playoffs. His .681 winning percentage is the second-best among active head coaches. Now the Chargers go to Houston to play the shaky Texans. Sunday’s highlight was wide receiver Quentin Johnston’s 13 catches for a career-high 186 yards.
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
Last week: 12
Sunday: Beat New Orleans Saints 27-19
One lesson learned: This is not the 1980s (or ’90s or 2000s)
It’s like none of us want to believe in the Buccaneers because of their putrid history over the three previous decades, but Tampa Bay has now won the NFC South four times in a row. The season before that, it won the Super Bowl. The Bucs of recent vintage aren’t great (they’re 28-26 in the last three years, counting the playoffs), but they keep dismissing the upstarts in their division.
12. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
Last week: 13
Saturday: Beat Pittsburgh Steelers 19-17
One lesson learned: Depth matters
The Bengals are the first team in NFL history to have players lead the league in passing yards (Joe Burrow, 4,918), receiving yards (Ja’Marr Chase, 1,708) and sacks (Trey Hendrickson, 17 1/2) in a season. And still, they will be sitting at home this postseason despite a five-game winning streak to finish the season.
13. Denver Broncos (10-7)
Last week: 14
Sunday: Beat Kansas City Chiefs 38-0
One lesson learned: Maybe Sean Payton was right
The veteran coach raised eyebrows with his effusive praise of rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who many people thought he over-drafted at No. 12 in April, but Nix had a very promising first season. He finished first among rookie quarterbacks in passing touchdowns (29) and passing yards per game (222.1) and second in EPA per dropback (.03) and passer rating (93.3).
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14. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
Last week: 11
Saturday: Lost to Cincinnati Bengals 19-17
One lesson learned: Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers
In Weeks 1-14, as the Steelers built a 10-3 record, they were tied for first in turnover margin (plus-17). In Weeks 15-18, as they lost four straight, they were 18th in turnover margin (minus-1). They also played the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals down the stretch, which makes a difference. Pittsburgh is headed to the playoffs to face the Ravens for the third time this season. If the Steelers win that game, it will be their first playoff victory since 2016.
15. Houston Texans (10-7)
Last week: 15
Sunday: Beat Tennessee Titans 23-14
One lesson learned: Pump the brakes
“If the Texans can survive being this offseason’s hot team, it could be a special season in Houston.” That’s what it said in our pre-training camp power rankings, which had the Texans at No. 4. They did not, and it has not been. Wide receiver injuries, regression by C.J. Stroud and five losses by eight or fewer points undid Houston and should teach a lot of us that we got too excited about last year’s 10-7 record and big playoff win over the Browns. Houston’s point differential (zero) is the second-lowest among playoff teams.
16. Seattle Seahawks (10-7)
Last week: 16
Sunday: Beat Los Angeles Rams 30-25
One lesson learned: It’s still a line-of-scrimmage game
The Seahawks figured out new head coach Mike Macdonald’s defensive system down the stretch and were formidable on that side of the ball. It didn’t matter, though, because Seattle finished the season 18th in scoring (22.1 ppg). That’s because Geno Smith was sacked 50 times and pressured on 38.5 percent of his dropbacks, both of which were the third worst in the league among full-season starters. Seattle fired offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb on Monday and has to figure out a way to protect Smith if next season is going to turn out better.
17. Dallas Cowboys (7-10)
Last week: 17
Sunday: Lost to Washington Commanders 23-19
One lesson learned: Plan ahead
It’s as if Jerry Jones thrives on chaos. The Cowboys took the contracts of Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb down to the wire, and we still don’t know if they plan to keep head coach Mike McCarthy, whose contract is up this year. The constant focus on surviving the moment has kept this team from long-term planning that could have solved some of its depth issues.
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones when asked about potentially making a change at head coach: “I don’t know that I am considering making a change.”
Jones said he would not rule out the possibility of bringing back Mike McCarthy but having a different offensive play-caller. “Anything is…
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) January 5, 2025
18. Arizona Cardinals (8-9)
Last week: 20
Sunday: Beat San Francisco 49ers 47-24
One lesson learned: The NFL combine might matter some
Rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. made headlines last offseason by not preparing for combine drills and only doing interviews in Indianapolis. He bet he’d still be the top wide receiver taken, and he was right. Arizona selected him at No. 4, but he finished 33rd in receiving yards with 885 yards, which was fifth among rookies. It’s unlikely anyone will follow that model anytime soon.
19. Miami Dolphins (8-9)
Last week: 19
Sunday: Lost to New York Jets 32-20
One lesson learned: Run the ball
Coach Mike McDaniel is a great run-game play designer, and the Dolphins’ backfield was one of the deepest in the league (De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Wright and Jeff Wilson). So why was this team just 21st in run percentage this season at 41.4 percent? Miami finished 27th in rushing success rate (36 percent) and missed the playoffs for the first time under McDaniel. In the coach’s fourth season, the Dolphins need to get less cute and tougher on the ground.
20. San Francisco 49ers (6-11)
Last week: 21
Sunday: Lost to Arizona Cardinals 47-24
One lesson learned: Stuff happens
Not everything is a referendum on a team’s direction or grand plan. The 49ers suffered devastating injuries to stars Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk and a string of lesser bumps and bruises that derailed the season. The offense failed to make up for a defense that finished 29th in points allowed (25.6) because of all those injuries. San Francisco should be formidable again in 2025.
21. Atlanta Falcons (8-9)
Last week: 18
Sunday: Lost to Carolina Panthers 44-38
One lesson learned: Pick a quarterback
The Falcons invited an uncomfortable situation when they signed Kirk Cousins to a mega-deal in free agency and then drafted Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick. They have one now. Cousins was benched after Week 15 and probably has played his last snap in Atlanta, which would mean a big dead-cap hit for the Falcons in 2025. Penix started the final three games and showed flashes but didn’t play well enough to get Atlanta into the playoffs.
22. Indianapolis Colts (8-9)
Last week: 22
Sunday: Beat Jacksonville Jaguars 26-23
One lesson learned: Messaging matters
The Colts had a tough situation this season with a much-hyped, second-year quarterback in Anthony Richardson who played poorly (37th in EPA per dropback, minus-.13, and an NFL-worst 47.7 completion percentage). Coach Shane Steichen seemed to make it worse every time he talked about it. Team owner Jim Irsay announced Sunday night that Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard will be back next season. If they can’t get more out of the 2023 No. 4 pick, it probably will be their last season.
23. Carolina Panthers (5-12)
Last week: 23
Sunday: Beat Atlanta Falcons 44-38
One lesson learned: Bryce Young saved his job
Young had five touchdowns (three passing, two rushing) against the Falcons on Sunday, and coach Dave Canales said he has earned the right to be the starter in 2025. Falcons coach Raheem Morris said this: “He was outstanding, he was able to manipulate the pocket, move around the pocket, find guys down the field. We couldn’t tackle him. He made throws all day. He made plays all day. He was absolutely lights-out.”
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24. Las Vegas Raiders (4-13)
Last week: 24
Sunday: Lost to Los Angeles Chargers 34-20
One lesson learned: Don’t let the players hire the coach
Antonio Pierce was given the full-time head coaching job because the players liked him in his interim stint to finish the 2023 season. That now looks like an indication of how much they disliked former head coach Josh McDaniels and not how much faith they had in Pierce. The Raiders lost 10 straight at one point this season, and Pierce might be one-and-done in the big chair.
25. New Orleans Saints (5-12)
Last week: 25
Sunday: Lost to Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27-19
One lesson learned: Father Time is undefeated
The Saints got old, and old and expensive is a bad combination in the NFL. Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara didn’t finish the season. (Wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed didn’t either, but that was bad injury luck, not age.) Thirty-five-year-old linebacker Demario Davis still led the team in tackles (136), but 35-year-old defensive end Cam Jordan played fewer than 50 percent of defensive snaps.
26. New York Jets (5-12)
Last week: 26
Sunday: Beat Miami Dolphins 32-20
One lesson learned: Let the coach or general manager run the team
It’s unclear who’s in charge in New York, but it was clear that former coach Robert Saleh and former GM Joe Douglas were not. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers loaded the offense with his friends and pointed fingers when it didn’t work. The ownership structure didn’t help, and now Rodgers may be following Saleh and Douglas out the door while the Jets start over again. If they hire Mike Vrabel, they should consider letting him do the job.
27. Chicago Bears (5-12)
Last week: 27
Sunday: Beat Green Bay Packers 24-22
One lesson learned: Humility helps
Whether it was No. 1 pick Caleb Williams predicting the Bears wouldn’t be punting much, Tyrique Stevenson taunting fans instead of defending a Hail Mary or former head coach Matt Eberflus’ unwillingness to take responsibility, Chicago’s season was marked by unfulfilled hubris. Williams finished 32nd in EPA per dropback (minus-.05), and the Bears have now missed the playoffs in four straight seasons. Chicago hasn’t won a playoff game in 14 years.
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All eyes on GM Ryan Poles as the Bears’ search for their next head coach begins
28. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13)
Last week: 28
Sunday: Lost to Indianapolis Colts 26-23
One lesson learned: Loyalty can be a hindrance
The Jaguars fired head coach Doug Pederson on Monday, but owner Shan Khan says general manager Trent Baalke is staying. Baalke has been a general manager in the NFL for 10 seasons, the last four of those full seasons in Jacksonville. He won a power struggle with Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco and now he’s outlasting Pederson in Jacksonville. All this for a guy whose teams are 76-88-1 (with one playoff win in the last seven seasons) with him in charge.
29. New York Giants (3-14)
Last week: 29
Sunday: Lost to Philadelphia Eagles 20-13
One lesson learned: Stubbornness can have consequences
The Giants could have had Daniel Jones play on his fifth-year extension in 2023. Instead, they signed him to a four-year, $160 million contract extension and held on to him for two more seasons. The result: a 9-25 record in the last two years. Now owner John Mara has decided that head coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen will stay for another season. Let’s see how that works out.
30. New England Patriots (4-13)
Last week: 32
Sunday: Beat Buffalo Bills 23-16
One lesson learned: It’s OK to tank
Sunday’s win over the resting Bills dropped the Patriots from first to fourth in the 2025 draft order. New England, which already has a quarterback, could have gotten a lot of trade value out of that top pick. The fourth pick is a lot less valuable in a two-quarterback draft. Team owner Robert Kraft was so angry, he fired Jerod Mayo for winning the game. Actually, he fired him for losing 13 games in his first season. Either way, he’s fired.
31. Cleveland Browns (3-14)
Last week: 30
Saturday: Lost to Baltimore Ravens 35-10
One lesson learned: Don’t make desperate decisions
The Browns “won” the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes in 2022 by guaranteeing all of Watson’s five-year, $230 million contract. It has been a disaster, and there’s no end in sight. His cap hit for the next two seasons will be $72 million, and Cleveland probably will be paying a rookie quarterback in both of those seasons because it has the No. 2 pick this year and Watson, whose recovery from a torn Achilles has hit a snag, clearly hasn’t been the answer.
32. Tennessee Titans (3-14)
Last week: 31
Sunday: Lost to Houston Texans 23-14
One lesson learned: The old Oilers jerseys still look great
That’s all we’ve got on the Titans, who wore the old Houston jerseys against Houston’s current team in their season finale. Sunday’s best news for Tennessee is it lost its sixth straight to secure the No. 1 pick. That probably means it’s over for Will Levis, who finished the season 40th in EPA per dropback (minus-.15).
(Top photo of Jahmyr Gibbs: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
