There are only four teams left alive in the 2025 NFL playoff that can still win Super Bowl 59. The playoff eliminations through the wild-card and divisional rounds have dwindled the tournament from 14 teams in a short two weeks.
Now, it comes down to three expected teams and one party crasher in what amounts to the league semifinals, the conference championship games.
Here’s looking at how the enduring quartet stacks up against each other, as well as examining why every remaining team can’t be ruled out from bringing home a ring.
(Futures odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
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1. Kansas City Chiefs (+235)
Why the Chiefs will win Super Bowl 59
1. They’re the repeat reigning champions
The Chiefs seem unbeatable when games matter most during their dominant dynasty. They’re so good at winning close games, and they excel at rallying when it seems like they’re down. They have exceeded the intimidation factor of the Patriot’s rule over the AFC and the league as a whole.
2. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Chris Jones
This three-man core just won’t let the Chiefs lose when stakes are the highest. Mahomes remains a magician, and Kelce keeps pulling a more youthful version of himself out of his helmet. Jones keeps on making plays as their linchpin and glue up front, adding another playoff sack against the Texans. An opponent needs two out of three to be limited factors to feel good about their chances vs. the Chiefs.
3. Defense, defense, and more defense
The Chiefs ended up with the No. 8 run defense in the NFL. They still are tough to pound the ball against, so opponents are often rendered one-dimensional sooner than expected. The pass defense also has a lot of veterans in the back seven. George Karlaftis and Felix Anudike-Uzomah are living up to their first-round pedigrees. The defense as a whole has great range and discipline, jelling well together for DC Steve Spagnuolo.
Why the Chiefs won’t win Super Bowl 59
1. Not enough from the running game
The Chiefs had the No. 22 rushing offense in the regular season. That’s down from 2023 when they were No. 19. A big factor was not having a healthy Isiah Pacheco for most of the season. Kareem Hunt does OK with volume and can help score in the red zone, but otherwise, Mahomes is stuck trying to move the ball through air regardless of down-and-distance.
2. Not enough big pass plays from Mahomes
Mahomes has learned well to adjust to be more methodical. He has more speedsters around him, led by rookie Xavier Worthy and now-healthy Hollywood Brown. Mahomes needs to stretch the field and connect on a few deep shots to boost the running and short passing, but that hasn’t been an automatic this year.
3. Not enough situational pass defense
The Chiefs were the No. 19 pass defense in the NFL this year, allowing more than 220 yards per game. They would be doomed if their secondary was exploited for more big days than their offense can produce.
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2. Buffalo Bills (+250)
Why the Bills will win Super Bowl 59
1. Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things
Allen is a top-two MVP candidate for how he relentlessly carries his team with fearlessness and toughness. He’s grown to be an even more intimidating force by protecting the ball and being so well-protected himself.
2. Dominating the turnover differential
The Bills were +24 in the regular season with 32 takeaways to only eight turnovers committed. That kind of disparity helped them blow past the Ravens in a game in which they were outplayed offensively.
3. James Cook stepping up next to Josh Allen
The Bills had the No. 9 rushing offense from the regular season, averaging 136.2 yards per game. They picked up where they left off with their 1-2 punch in the playoffs, mixing in a little Ty Johnson and Ray Davis at times.
Why the Bills won’t win Super Bowl 59
1. Run defense
The Bills have gotten better here, but they can still struggle against versatile backs. They allowed 116.7 rushing yards per game, third-worst among the four playoff teams left.
2. Not enough from the pass rush
The Bills have Von Miller and a slew of edge rushers who have posted some solid games up front, but they need to be consistent and finish more pursuits of the quarterback.
3. Bad in-game adjustments
Defensive-minded coach Sean McDermott has been a good leader for his team, including defensive coordinator Bob Babich and young offensive coordinator Joe Brady. But McDermott and his staff can be challenged in trying to make changes on the fly midgame, which has hurt them in several contests.
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3. Philadelphia Eagles (+170)
Why the Eagles will win Super Bowl 59
1. Saquon Barkley
Barkley is a 2,000-yard rusher who makes teams worry about him exploding for 200-plus yards in any given game. Should Barkley continue to operate as an elite prolific back, the Eagles would be hard to beat.
2. The pass defense
Vic Fangio has edge rushers and key disruptors, such as Jalen Carter, up front. On the back end, he has Zack Baun cleaning up and the cornerbacks creating tough matchups for even the best WRs.
3. Their recent Super Bowl experience
The Eagles’ loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57 has helped them recover from a brief hangover, and they will be better prepared to finish the job now.
Why the Eagles won’t win Super Bowl 59
1. Jalen Hurts and a suddenly limited passing game
Hurts is having trouble pushing the ball downfield and is being more tentative in throwing the ball into coverage. The running game and defense have allowed him to be conservative, but it won’t work like that for two more rounds.
2. A cracking run defense
The Eagles did not look good against a relentless Josh Jacobs before wilting pretty strongly against the Rams’ Kyren Williams. That won’t cut it against the rest of the competition.
3. Losing the big-play battle
The Eagles need those big plays, even a handful, to make sure the opponents don’t put too much pressure on the defense.
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4. Washington Commanders (+750)
Why the Commanders will win Super Bowl 59
1. A Jayden Daniels takeover
Daniels has been downright dazzling as a rookie QB beyond his years. He’s on fire and can keep leading the Commanders to huge things right away.
2. Their running game
The Commanders were third behind the Ravens and Eagles with an average of 151.7 yards per game. Daniels does factor into that, but they can spread the field and pound well against virtually any defense.
3. Their clutch pass defense
The Commanders contained the Lions’ downfield passing well with disciplined schemes, and they got bonus takeaways to control the flow of the game.
Why the Commanders won’t win Super Bowl 59
1. The run defense
The Commanders were No. 30 against the run during the regular season, allowing 138.9 yards per game. The Buccaneers and Lions had success on the ground, but they got drawn into passing a little too much when Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff were making more mistakes than usual. Washington won’t be so lucky getting gashed going forward.
2. Their overall inexperience shows
The Commanders have coach Dan Quinn, who took the Falcons to their Super Bowl nine seasons ago during a special season for Matt Ryan. But the rest of the team is new to making a run together, despite some other Super Bowl winners (Zach Ertz) and such on their roster.
3. Not enough chunk plays.
The Commanders struggle when Daniels doesn’t have time to stretch the field to wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown, and while he’s a steady runner, he doesn’t always get loose for big plays. Washington needs to keep stepping on the gas and not be content with dinking and dunking, except in the tighter red-zone spaces.
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