Is a wild-card matchup a true 50-50 proposition?
Last year, the favorites were 3-3 on wild-card weekend, and that’s worth thinking about heading into Round 1 in 2025.
How much can you trust a road favorite? The Chargers are favored at Houston this weekend under first-year coach Jim Harbaugh. The Vikings, who finished 14-3, are favored against the Rams, who were on a five-game winning streak before resting starters in Week 18.
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Will the heavy favorites deliver in a third matchup? The Ravens meet the Steelers after splitting their regular-season meetings in the AFC North. Is this the year Lamar Jackson gets to the Super Bowl?
Can you trust a rookie quarterback? Denver will start Bo Nix against Buffalo and MVP candidate Josh Allen. Washington’s Jayden Daniels will make his playoff debut at Tampa Bay, led by Baker Mayfield. What about the injured quarterbacks? Jalen Hurts (concussion) and Jordan Love (elbow) will be monitored ahead of the Eagles-Packers matchup.
We picked one underdog to win straight-up this weekend. Who will it be? A look at our track record in the regular season:
- Straight up: 198-74
- Against the spread: 147-117-8
Here are our picks for wild-card weekend:
NFL picks, predictions for wild-card weekend
- Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Houston Texans
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., CBS/Paramount+
Jim Harbaugh is back in the playoffs, and the Chargers are a road favorite at Houston. Keep in mind the Texans beat Cleveland as a road underdog in the wild-card round last season, and C.J. Stroud does have a better passer rating at home. Stroud, however, also has taken 52 sacks — the most of any quarterback.
Los Angeles will turn up the pressure defensively, and Justin Herbert will lead a high-percentage passing attack that has been better since the return of JK Dobbins. The Texans were 1-5 S/U as an underdog this season. The Chargers were 5-2 S/U when favored by three points or fewer.
Pick: Chargers 27, Texans 20
MORE: Chargers RB depth chart after Ezekiel Elliott signing
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
Saturday, 8 p.m., Prime Video
It’s Round 3 between these division rivals that have been on opposite trajectories heading into this matchup. The Steelers are on a four-game losing streak, which includes a 34-17 loss to Baltimore in Week 16. Russell Wilson is averaging 174.5 passing yards per game in that stretch, and the Steelers allowed 220 rushing yards in the last meeting.
If that happens again, then the tandem of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry will cruise to a victory here, too. The Steelers have won three of four playoff meetings, but the Ravens won the last one in 2014. They’ll win this one, too, but Pittsburgh will keep it tighter this time.
Pick: Ravens 23, Steelers 15
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- Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-9)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS/Paramount+
Sean Payton is back in the playoffs with the Broncos. He’s 9-8 S/U in the postseason, and Nix has been impressive as a rookie. That said, Denver was just 4-5 S/U on the road, where Nix had an 85.8 passer rating.
Expect Buffalo to lean on the run early against a stingy Denver defense. The Broncos were 2-6 S/U this season when they allowed more than 100 yards rushing, and Josh Allen presents a problem with scrambling in the pocket. Buffalo will make a strong opening statement in the wild-card round here. Buffalo was 6-0 S/U and 3-3 ATS when favored by six points or more this season.
Pick: Bills 31, Broncos 21
MORE: Bo Nix flirts with rookie passing TD record in stellar Week 18 win
- Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)
Sunday, 4:30 p.m., Fox
We’re going to assume Jalen Hurts (concussion) and Jordan Love (elbow) are a go and will adjust this prediction accordingly if that changes. The Packers limped into the playoffs with a two-game losing streak. Saquon Barkley had 132 total yards and three TDs in the Week 1 matchup between these teams in Brazil, and Hurts had 278 passing yards and two TDs. The Eagles had three turnovers and still won the game.
Green Bay will give Josh Jacobs 20-plus carries here, and it’s worth knowing Love did not have an interception in his past seven games. Can the Packers get enough splash plays on offense to pull another wild-card upset against a NFC East team? Barkley will be the X-factor here. The Packers’ past three playoff losses under Matt LaFleuer are by five points or less.
Pick: Eagles 28, Packers 24
MORE: Jordan Love injury update
- Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Sunday, 8 p.m., NBC, Peacock
The Commanders will be a hot upset pick here with Jayden Daniels even though the Buccaneers won the Week 1 meeting 37-20. Daniels has progressed considerably since, and Washington closed the season on a five-game win streak. Daniels will make plays, but the key will be a pass defense that allowed 190.4 passing yards per game during that win streak.
Mayfield will let it fly here — he had 289 yards and four TDs in the first meeting. Tampa Bay won six of its past seven games despite not forcing a turnover in the past three games. The run defense stays tight here, and Mayfield picks up a home playoff victory for the second straight season.
Pick: Buccaneers 31, Commanders 26
MORE: Jayden Daniels injury update
- Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Monday, 8 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Here is the “upset” of the week. The Rams are home underdogs against a Minnesota team coming off a brutal loss against the Lions. Los Angeles beat Minnesota 30-20 in Week 8. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nakua combined for 12 catches for 157 yards and a TD in that game. Mathew Stafford had consistent home-road splits this season, and the Rams can win another close game here.
How will Sam Darnold respond after a brutal Week 18 performance against the Lions? This is his first playoff start, and it will be heavily scrutinized. The Rams were 3-3 S/U as an underdog of four points or less this season, and we think they will generate just enough against the Vikings’ second-ranked run defense to spring the upset.
Pick: Rams 28, Vikings 27
MORE: Dan Campbell hints at playoff rematch with Vikings
