With two weeks of data under our belts, we are starting to get an idea of NFL teams’ tendencies and an understanding of what matchups to target. Below, we go over our three favorite NFL players props for Week 3. Use several NFL betting bonuses on FanDuel and DraftKings for these wagers.
McConkey Bounces Back
The line has swung way, way too far on Ladd McConkey. For context, his over/under was 71.5 in Week 1 (which he went over), and 74.5 in Week 2. Now, the books are hanging a 57.5 line, which seems way too low. Even though the Los Angeles Chargers have done a good job spreading the ball around to all their WRs between McConkey, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston, McConkey has still had his involvement.
He had 74 receiving yards in Week 1, and it was not as though he had a horrible game in Week 2 either. He caught all 5 of his targets for 48 yards. Even though Allen was not on the team last year, this is still just far too low. In 19 career games for Ladd, he has gone over 50.5 receiving yards in 13/19 games, and in 12 of his last 13 games. The only game he missed was the Chargers most recent game.
Even if the argument is that he will not get that same workload with Allen in the fold, this is still too low of a line, and McConkey was a rookie last year. One could reasonably expect him to take a step forward in terms of how good of a player he is. For context, he still leads the chargers in separation score and is second in terms of win rate.
As far as the matchup goes, the Broncos are thought to be a tough matchup on paper, but we just saw Daniel Jones (aka Indiana Jones) move the ball up and down the field against this Broncos defense, and McConkey lines up primarily in the slot, which is not where Patrick Surtain lines up. He should have a good game in this one.
Lamb Continues Hot Start to Season
For this one, we are going against the fade recent results strategy and taking CeeDee Lamb to have his third straight good game to start the season. The matchup is just too good here, and the Dallas Cowboys defense is so bad that they are probably going to have to consistently throw again.
Lamb has hit this number in 19 of his last 30 games, and 15 of his last 22 specifically with QB Dak Prescott, taking out the game Prescott got hurt in. This includes both games this year as Lamb has recorded 110 and 112 receiving yards on 13 and 11 targets. That type of volume is exactly what you look for, and the matchup is so good for him to dominate once again.
The Bears’ secondary is an absolute mess with their best CB out for this game, and out for a while. The Cowboys move him around the formation, but there is no hiding the problem CBs that the Bears are throwing out there. For context, the Lions had two WRs go for over 100 yards last week in Amon Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. Look for Lamb to go off again this week.
Nacua Involved Heavily for Rams
Like the previous play with Lamb, we are once again taking a play that has hit in both games to start the season and backing that to continue at least for one more week. This is another situation where the workload and the matchup are just too good to ignore for Puka Nacua.
Since the start of last year, taking out two games in which he played limited snaps, he has hit 7+ receptions in 10 of his last 13 games, which includes 2/2 this year. He is averaging almost 11 targets in this 13-game stretch, and he should continue to see that target pace at least in this matchup. The LA Rams do a great job moving Nacua around the formation and will give him easy screen passes that will help with this high reception total.
He played the Eagles twice last year, when the Eagles had the best defense in the NFL and a much better secondary than they must start this year, and he had 9 receptions in one and six in the other. The game he had six was the game played in the blizzard in the playoffs, and he still had a ridiculous 14 targets in that game.
With the Eagles having a good run defense but leaky secondary, the guess here is that the Rams end up passing the ball a ton, like what they did in the first two weeks, and that Nacua gets a ton of work.
