The last two MVPs will be center stage on Sunday Night Football.
Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson? Who you got?
This has become one of the more contentious debates among the NFL media. Allen won the NFL MVP award last season after compiling 3,731 passing yards with 28 TDs and six interceptions. He added 531 rushing yards and 12 TDs.
Jackson – the 2023 NFL MVP – had 4,172 yards, 41 TDs and four interceptions. He added 915 rushing yards and four TDs. The Ravens won the regular-season matchup 35-10. The Bills got revenge in a 27-25 in the AFC divisional playoffs. All of that will be recycled ad nauseam on Sunday night.
You want the answer? The winner will be the QB who gets past Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and takes their team to the Super Bowl. That won’t be solved on SNF, but it will offer clues as to who might have a leg up in the AFC race.
That contest is only part of a loaded opening week where we picked four upsets to start the season.
Each week, we’ll give our predictions. Last season, we were 206-79 (..723) in straight-up picks and 1151-125-6 (.547) against the spread. Here are our straight-up picks for Week 1.
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
NFL picks, predictions for Week 1
- Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock
The Eagles won both meetings last season by an average of 31 points per game. The Cowboys traded Micah Parsons ahead of Brian Schottenheimer’s debut. How will Dallas respond? Saquon Barkley averaged 116.5 yards with three TDs in two meetings against the Cowboys’ last season. Dak Prescott’s and a TD is a lot of points in a NFC East rivalry opener. The NFL Kickoff has been decided by less than seven points in five of the last seven seasons.
Pick: Eagles 28, Cowboys 23
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers
Friday, 8:15 p.m., YouTube
The Chiefs and Chargers open in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The Chargers have a revamped running game with rookie Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris. Justin Herbert averaged 196 yards with two TDs to Kansas City last season. He’ll have to take more risks to beat the Chiefs here. In a game with a lot of field goals, Patrick Mahomes makes the plays down the stretch to secure a one-score victory.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Chargers 20
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m. Fox
The Buccaneers are quietly established with five straight playoff appearances, including two with Baker Mayfield. He is 2-2 S/U against the Falcons through the last two seasons, but the Bucs are 4-1 S/U as a road favorite. The Falcons have more question marks with second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Keep an eye on Tampa Bay rookie Emeka Egbuka – who had a strong preseason. This line could jump before kickoff.
Pick: Buccaneers 30, Falcons 20
- Cincinnati Bengals (-6) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. Fox
The Bengals’ slow starts have been well-documented, and that is why Joe Burrow played more that most starting QBs in the preseason. Burrow is 1-3 S/U as a starter at Cleveland – a staggering stat all things considered. Yet he had 181 yards and two TDs in a 21-14 victory last season, and the Browns have an unsettled long-term QB plan with Joe Flacco. What else is new? Cleveland was 2-4 ATS as a home underdog last season.
Pick: Bengals 31, Browns 21
- Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. CBS
Early hot-seat coach game between Shane Steichen and Mike McDaniel. Tyreek Hill (oblique) and De’Von Achane (calf) are expected to play. Tua Tagovailoa has a 86.1 QB rating in stadiums with retractable roofs, which gives us pause here. Will Daniel Jones surprise as the Colts’ new starter? Miami is 7-4 in September under McDaniel, but three of those losses came last season. This is a tough pick as a result..
Pick: Dolphins 21, Colts 19
- Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. CBS
A couple fun coaching debuts here with Mike Vrabel and Pete Carroll, two coaches who know how to lean on the running game. Rookie running backs Ashton Jeanty and TreVeyon Henderson will find the spotlight here. Geno Smith gets to work with tight end Brock Bowers and Amari Cooper. The Patriots were 0-6 last season when Maye took three or more sacks. Will he stay away from Maxx Crosby long enough?
Pick: Patriots 20, Raiders 18
- Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m. CBS
The Saints will turn to Spencer Rattler at quarterback in Kellen Moore’s debut, which might not be pretty against the Cardinals. Arizona was 0-2 ATS as a road favorite last season, however, and Kyler Murray is 19-20 as a starter on the road. The Saints were 4-5 ATS at home last season. We think they will hang around if Rattler protects the football.
Pick: Cardinals 26, Saints 21
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at New York Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. CBS
Aaron Rodgers’ first start in Pittsburgh is against his former team – where he was 5-12 as a starter last season. Justin Fields is up against his former team, too,, and Aaron Glenn is making his debut with the Jets. The matchup between DK Metcalf and Sauce Gardner on the perimeter is high-level entertainment, too. These teams have split the last two meetings at Pittsburgh, but the Steelers hammered New York 37-15 last season. Rodgers will get a win from the other sideline.
Pick: Steelers 28, Jets 19
- New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. Fox
Russell Wilson is the starter for the Giants, and it’s a tough road opener at Washington. The Commanders have Terry McLaurin back and added Deebo Samuel. Jayden Daniels looks to build on last year’s NFC championship run. Washington was 6-2 ATS as a home favorite last season, and the Giants had a -9 turnover ratio on the road. If that in-game trends sticks, then the Commanders will cruise here.
Pick: Commanders 28, Giants 17
- Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. Fox
The Jaguars will unleash two-way star Travis Hunter under first-year coach Liam Coen against the Panthers, a franchise that showed some signs of life at the end of last season under coach Dave Canales. This is a dueling prove-it year for former No. 1 picks Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young. Lawrence has 18 career interceptions in 30 home starts. Young is 1-14 on the road as a starter with 11 interceptions. Can he avoid those costly mistakes on the road?
Pick: Jaguars 28, Panthers 18
- Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-8)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Broncos are the largest favorite of Week 1. Bo Nix looks to build on a successful rookie season. Nik Bonnitto and Jonathon Cooper combined for 24 sacks last season. It’s going to be a tough first trial for rookie quarterback Cam Ward. If this line creeps up to double digits, we’ll see value in Tennessee. Denver, however, is a little further along under Sean Payton, and all six home victories last season came by more than eight points.
Pick: Broncos 27, Titans 13
- San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox
The Seahawks begin the Sam Darnold era, and the 49ers look to bounce back after an injury-riddled season a year ago. Brock Purdy now has the benefit of a backfield that features Christian McCaffrey and Brian Robinson Jr., and the 49ers have won the last three matchups at Seattle. Look for that streak to continue.
Pick: 49ers 28, Seahawks 21
- Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-1.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Will Micah Parsons make his Packers’ debut? This a strange line seeing as though the Lions have won the last three meetings at Lambeau Field, and Dan Campbell is 6-2 against the Packers. Jordan Love (thumb) will be available, and he has a 1-4 S/U record with a 62.5% completion in five starts against Detroit. How much will rookie Matthew Golden help? The Lions get Aidan Hutchinson back, and the Packers will have to prove they can slow down David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Pick: Lions 30, Packers 25
- Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Matthew Stafford (back) is on track to play, but his status deserves monitoring leading up to the game. How will Davante Adams fare in his Rams’ debut? The Texans are .500 on the road and .500 against NFC opponents under C.J. Stroud.
Pick: Rams 24, Texans 21
- Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-1)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson take center stage in the Sunday Night Football spotlight. Including playoffs, the two teams are tied at 3-3 in those head-to-head matchups. Will Jackson get revenge for last year’s AFC divisional playoff loss? The Bills were 10-0 S/U and 7-3 ATS at home last season. Will that trend continue? Stick with the home team in a toss-up game that could come down to a last-second field goal by Tyler Bass.
Pick: Bills 31, Ravens 28
- Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Chicago Bears
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ABC
J.J. McCarthy will make his NFL debut. How quickly does he establish a connection with Justin Jefferson – who averaged 50 receiving yards per game against the Bears last season? Chicago coach Ben Johnson will also make his debut – and this is a huge spot for Caleb Williams. The Bears nearly beat the Vikings at home last season in a 30-27 thriller. Chicago was 0-4 S/U as a home underdog in 2024. Can they break a five-game home losing streak to a NFC North rival?
Pick: Bears 22, Vikings 20
