Although the 2025 NFL season has been “week to week”, there is a little more clarity on the good and bad teams at the midway point.
The data points help plenty in knowing identities and vibes, but some teams remain maddeningly inconsistent to throw off our picks and predictions against the spread.
Overall, the recent results have been better and Week 9 comes with a lucky number. Here’s diving into the latest fearless forecast of professional pigskin point prognostications:
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
POWER RANKINGS: Eagles, Chiefs near Packers rise to the top of Week 9
NFL picks against the spread for Week 9
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Game of Midweek: Ravens (-7, 50 o/u) at Dolphins
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
Whether it’s Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley at QB for the Ravens, it will be a nice South Florida homecoming. Jackson has lit up the Dolphins plenty before while Huntley went back to play Jackson supersub to beat the Bears in Week 8. Tua Tagovailoa is playing better ahead of facing an improved Baltimore pass defense, but the biggest problem will be Miami’s run defense against Derrick Henry.
Pick: Ravens win 27-17 and cover the spread.
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Game of the Week: Chiefs (-1.5, 51.5 o/u) at Bills
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chiefs’ offense is hitting on all cylinders and the same is going for the Bills after their Week 7 bye. This should live up to instant high-scoring classic expectations, but in the end Kansas City has a better overall defense ready to deliver in key situations with Patrick Mahomes putting pressure on Josh Allen to keep answering.
Pick: Chiefs win 34-31 and cover the spread.
MORE: How Patrick Mahomes’ 2025 season compares to previous MVP campaigns
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Lock of the Week: Patriots (-5.5, 45.5 o/u) over Falcons
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Patriots’ offense handled the Browns at home after withstanding their pass rush early. The Falcons on paper have a strong pass defense but it just got ripped at home vs. the Dolphins after being gashed on the ground by the 49ers. The Patriots’ offense is too balanced and too explosive for reeling Atlanta to handle. New England also has the stout run defense to contain Bijan Robinson.
Pick: Patriots win 30-17 and cover the spread.
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Upset of the Week: Texans (+1, 39.5 o/u) over Broncos
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Bo Nix is on an absolute heater after ripping through the defenses of the Cowboys and Giants at home. But facing the Texans’ nasty group with Will Anderson Jr. Danielle Hunter and others on the road is a different story for the second-year QB who struggles away from Denver. Third-year QB C.J. Stroud is starting to play much better for Houston, connecting much better with his remixed younger weapons.
Pick: Texans win 20-17.
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Bears (-1.5, 52 o/u) at Bengals
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Bears have gotten their running game going of late for Ben Johnson with D’Andre Swift and rookie Kyle Monagai. The Bengals are the worst team against the run and just got gashed by the Jets’ similar Lions adjacent offense by former Justin Fields. Joe Flacco will do his best to keep on pushing the Bengals’ loaded passing attack, but Caleb Williams rebounds to help his team on the road vs. another AFC North foe.
Pick: Bears win 27-24 and cover the spread.
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Vikings at Lions (-9, 48 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
J.J. McCarthy has a good chance to finally return at starting QB for Minnesota, but now a growing problem is a defense breaking down in many areas, especially against the run and aggressive downfield passing. The Lions can do just that with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery setting up Jared Goff to stretch the field well. The Vikings’ mini-bye is negated by the Lions’ actual bye. Dan Campbell has gone 2-4 after the bye, but his team goes against that grain here.
Pick: Lions win 34-17 and cover the spread.
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Panthers at Packers (-12.5, 44 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Packers are flexing all-around now with Jordan Love getting hot with all of his key weapons now that Christian Watson is back to help Tucker Kraft, Romeo Doubs and others. The Panthers are unlikely to have Bryce Young back, but whether it’s him or Andy Dalton, this is a daunting task on the road vs. Micah Parsons, Rashan Gary and others bringing the pressure.
Pick: Packers win 31-14 and cover the spread.
MORE: Tucker Kraft enjoys career day for Packers in ‘SNF’ win
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Chargers (-10, 42.5 o/u) at Titans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Chargers were once coached by Titans interim Mike McCoy. That’s just a statement that has no relevance to the fact that the Titans’ defense stinks all-around and will get burned by Justin Herbert and all of his receivers and runners. Cam Ward will do his best again but there’s just not enough personnel or schematic help.
Pick: Chargers win 34-14 and cover the spread.
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49ers (-2.5, 47.5 o/u) at Giants
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The 49ers’ offensive fortunes should be changing soon after facing a tough Texans’ defense on the road that was able to contain Christian McCaffrey and put too much on Mac Jones. The Giants’ defense is incapable of doing that regardless of QBs and the 49ers should also get back more receiving help. Jaxson Dart going one-dimensional vs. angry San Francisco D doesn’t sound good, either.
Pick: 49ers win 23-14 and cover the spread.
MORE: How Giants running back room looks after season-ending Cam Skattebo injury
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Colts (-3, 49.5 o/u) at Steelers
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
This is a terrible defensive matchup for the Steelers as they can’t slow down elite running games or cover big-time tight ends. That’s horrible news against sizzling Jonathan Taylor and star rookie Tyler Warren vs. a nasty offensive line. Oh yeah, they also give up more deep balls than expected, trouble vs. Daniel Jones. As for Aaron Rodgers, he’ll be stuck under pressure without much help from the run.
Pick: Colts win 27-20 and cover the spread.
MORE: Where Aaron Rodgers vs. Steelers ranks among best QB revenge games
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Jaguars (-3, 43.5 o/u) at Raiders
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Jaguars and Raiders are both coming off byes with various offensive issues to clean up. Jacksonville is more competent with Travis Etienne in the running game and also has a lot more defensive playmakers to continue the Geno Smith woes. Look for Trevor Lawrence to have his best game in Liam Coen’s offense, too.
Pick: Jaguars win 24-20 and cover the spread.
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Saints at Rams (-13.5, 44.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The Saints might have been prompted into a QB change but regardless of Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shough, facing a Sean McVay team after its bye on the road is brutal for a bad team. Kellen Moore will see the young Rams pass rush get going while having more nightmares about how his team will stop a rested Matthew Stafford and his elite wide receivers.
Pick: Rams win 38-14 and cover the spread.
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Seahawks (-3, 46 o/u) at Commanders
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
This is Washington state vs. Washington D.C. in an odd SNF matchup. Sam Darnold might be facing Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota, but regardless, Mike Macdonald’s team is built to travel well, being 3-0 on the road regardless of distance. They will be. ready after a bye after the Commanders are returning home off a short week.
Pick: Seahawks win 24-20 and cover the spread.
MORE: Will Jayden Daniels be ready for Week 9 vs. Seahawks?
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Cardinals at Cowboys (-3, 53 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN
The Cowboys have been an atrocious road team and that showed in recent losses to the Panthers and Broncos. But they continue to be a tough home team, 2-0 with two division victories. The Cardinals come into Dallas after a bye with some real offensive quesitons, a break for the hosts’ reeling D. Dak Prescott leads the rebound change as the Cowboys yo-yo with .500.
Pick: Cowboys win 34-20 and cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
- Week 8 record straight up: 9-4
- Week 8 record against the spread: 7-6
- 2025 season record straight up: 81-38
- 2025 season record against the spread: 61-58
