We are at the part of the NBA playoffs where I’m starting to think about the conference finals and what the juiciest match-ups could be. Are we really about to get Pacers-Knicks in the East? Are we getting Anthony Edwards against SGA in the West? Or does Golden State have one last stand, or do the Celtics?
Road teams are still the story in the conference semifinals. Road teams have 28 wins in the playoffs so far. Why is that? I think it’s because three-point shooting has turned games into shooting contests as opposed to free throw contests that hinge on officials’ calls. We all know home teams get more calls.
Let’s make the call on a couple of Game 5s for May 13.
Pacers at Cavaliers Game 5 Odds
The Pacers are getting big points tonight despite leading the series 3-1 and despite the bad news on Donovan Mitchell’s ankle/calf for the Cavaliers. He will be a game-time decision, so watch this line closely.
Indiana is 7-2 in the playoffs against the spread and 6-3 over/under. Cleveland is 4-4 in the playoffs ATS and 6-2 over/under. The Pacers have covered the spread in the last eight road playoff games in Cleveland, and have won the last three games as road underdogs against the Cavs.
The Cavs have also never won a series when they lost the first two games at home.
Pacers at Cavaliers Game 5 Prediction
And just like that, the Cavaliers incredible regular season and first-round sweep seem about done. Indiana embarrassed Cleveland in Game 4, leading by 41 at halftime (tying an NBA playoff record). Mitchell didn’t play the second half because of his injury.
But I haven’t seen anything to tell me that, even with Mitchell, Cleveland can make this a series. The only thing Cleveland has going for them tonight is being at home, and remember, that hasn’t mattered in the NBA playoffs.
Indiana could coast tonight and just wait for Game 6, but I don’t think they’ll want to do that. I like how the Pacers have covered the spread in the playoffs and are 19-17 straight up as underdogs. Give me the points.
The Pick: Pacers +7.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Nuggets at Thunder Game 5 Odds
Denver is getting over 10 points tonight on the road. Interesting because three of the four games in this series have been close.
OKC is 3-5 against the spread in the playoffs and 3-5 over/under. The Nuggets are 6-4-1 against the spread and 5-6 over/under. Prop bet alert – Oklahoma City has led at halftime in eight straight games. Denver has won Game 5 of a playoff series the last six times the series has been tied at 2.
Nuggets at Thunder Game 5 Prediction
Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic has 23 turnovers this series, and was only 7-22 from the floor in Game 4, yet the Nuggets still led by eight in the fourth before the Thunder went on a run to steal it.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has scored 30-plus in the Thunder’s last four home semifinal games.
We’re at the point in the series where it comes down to execution. Both teams have tried everything from a strategy standpoint. I like the Nuggets with the points. Even with Jokic not playing well, they are still in this. He’s due for a triple double.
The Pick: Nuggets +10.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
