We are midway through the first round of the NBA playoffs. Home teams are 16-6. The best individual performance is by the Bucks Gary Trent Jr.
Look it up.
It might be sour grapes. I saw my Pacers bet evaporate thanks to Trent Jr and his franchise-playoff record nine threes Friday night. Today, we get four more first round games, and there are serious injury issues in both of the games I’m focusing on.
Thunder at Grizzlies Odds
Memphis covered the 9.5-point spread in Game 3, which was about the only good news for the Grizzlies.
OKC has won the last 12 meetings between the two teams. That is the fourth-longest active NBA streak of one team beating another. OKC actually has the longest active streak: 16 straight wins over Portland. The all-time record is 27.
The Thunder are 57-25-4 against the spread. Memphis is 44-42-1. There’s only been one sweep in the first round in the NBA playoffs since 2020, it was by the Thunder. And you know no team has come back from a 3-0 hole in NBA history. Ever.
The last six games between these two teams have hit the under, and the home team has covered in the last eight Grizzlies playoff games. The spread today is 15 points, which is a huge number. Memphis will be without star Ja Morant with a hip injury.
Thunder at Grizzlies Prediction
Memphis didn’t just lose Game 3, they lost a 29-point lead, the second largest in NBA postseason history since the mid-1990s. They led by 26 at halftime. They lost.
What type of confidence or resolve does Memphis have left? They have no Morant, and they’re just outclassed. What’s even scarier is that OKC hasn’t even played that well. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 24.3 points this series, eight points lower than his regular season average.
I’m not scared by the big spread, and you shouldn’t be either. Get out the broom. OKC is going to want to win big and rest up for the semifinals.
The pick: Thunder -15 (-112 at DraftKings)
Rockets at Warriors Odds
Game 3 of this series, tied at one game each, shifts to San Francisco. The Warriors are favored by a few. The big story entering this game is the status of Warriors guard Jimmy Butler, who hurt his hip in a nasty fall in Game 2.
Since Butler joined the Warriors, they’re 25-9 straight up. Against the spread with Butler, Golden State is 18-14-2, which is only so-so.
Warriors coach Steve Kerr said there’s a chance Butler could play and that it’s about managing the pain and soreness. I won’t be surprised if this line moves in a big way before tip-off.
Rockets at Warriors Prediction
I see Rockets-Warriors the same way I am seeing Timberwolves-Lakers. You have one team that looks young going up against a veteran team with some skins on the wall. Minnesota leads the Lakers 2-1. To me, Houston is Minnesota, young-ish, and feeling their way. Rockets guard Jalen Green made eight threes in Game 2, and Houston led the entire game.
How much did Butler’s injury hurt Golden State? Clearly it mattered some, but even with Butler in the line-up I’m not sold that Golden State is a better team. I will take Houston and all the points I can get for now.
The pick: Rockets +3 (-110 at DraftKings)
