Two teams in 2-0 holes try to get a Game 3 win at home as the first round of the NBA playoffs rolls on.
We haven’t seen that many surprises in the first round, except for maybe some of the officiating at the end of that Knicks-Pistons game Thursday night.
Higher seeds have dominated in the NBA playoffs so far. I’m looking at two games in the East tonight and going ‘dog each way.
Celtics at Magic Odds
Second-seeded Boston leads the series 2-0. They covered in Game 1, but didn’t cover in Game 2 by a point. Boston is 39-44-1 against the spread now, while the Magic are 42-42-1.
The home team has won each of the last nine meetings between these two teams. Orlando is 9-26 straight up as underdogs.
Vegas has the spread as 4.5-points for Boston. Celtics starting guard Jayson Tatum is listed as doubtful while dealing with a bone bruise on his right wrist. He did not play in Game 2, but Boston still had no problem. On the good side for the Magic, Orlando has covered the spread in each of its last eight games after a loss.
Celtics at Magic Prediction
This series has played out as expected. Orlando’s Achilles Heel is they don’t shoot threes well (they were the worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA this season), and they’ve been outscored 84-51 on three-pointers in the first two games by the Celtics.
Boston hasn’t really stopped Magic star Paolo Banchero, who had 32 in Game 2, but they’ve just outscored him. That’s how good Boston’s offense is when it clicks. Take out Tatum and Jaylen Brown (five threes in Game 2) and Derrick White (three threes), pick up the slack.
Still, I think there’s a reason to take Orlando and the points tonight. Orlando is bound to shoot better at home and get a few more calls from the officials. I predict a much closer game.
The pick: Orlando +4.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Pacers at Bucks Odds
It’s not a surprise that this series has already turned chippy. Pascal Siakam and Gary Trent Jr. got into it in Game 2 in the first quarter. I think the Bucks were trying to send a message, but I’m not sure it worked.
Indiana has won and covered in both Game 1 and Game 2. Milwaukee returns home, where they are 27-14 this season. The Bucks are favored, but have lost seven of their last eight home playoff games when laying points. The total is 230.5, which is 33 points more than the total listed for Celtics Magic! That’s a huge number, and I’d stay away. Each of the last 10 Bucks home playoff games have gone over.
Pacers at Bucks Prediction
I’m taking the Pacers, who are 15-15 as underdogs, and the points tonight. Indiana hasn’t really stopped Giannis Antetokounmpo, but no one can. He had 34 and 18 boards in Game 2. The Bucks also finally got back Damian Lillard, who had 14 points in 37 minutes, but clearly wasn’t in perfect game shape.
When Lillard is 100 percent, the Bucks can match the Pacers scoring power, but Lillard isn’t there yet. I just can’t go with Milwaukee to win big tonight, so I am taking the points.
The pick: Pacers +5.5 (-110 at Caesars)
