There are a couple of uneasy home fan bases tonight in the NBA playoffs.
In New York, a big Game 3 crowd expecting to see the Knicks take out the defending champs were humbled and shushed by a Celtics shooting clinic. Knick fans are anxious going into Game 4, despite leading the series 2-1. While out in San Francisco, lonely eyes turn to Steph Curry and his bum hamstring as the Warriors face a big challenge against Minnesota down 2-1.
Road teams are 10-4 in the NBA conference semifinals. My theory is that we have underestimated how much teams relish going on the road and silencing the other team’s fans.
Celtics at Knicks Game 4 Odds
Boston is a 6.5-point favorite, and the total is set at 208.5. The road team is 8-0 in the Knicks last eight games.
The Knicks are 6-3 against the spread in the playoffs and 3-5-1 over/under. Boston is 4-4 against the spread and 3-4-1 over/under. The last five playoff games between these two teams have gone under.
New York is 8-14 this season as underdogs, and the Knicks have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games as home dogs. Maybe MSG isn’t what it used to be.
Celtics at Knicks Pick for Game 4
Boston made threes. Boston won. It really is that simple. After horrible shooting games in Game 1 and Game 2, the Celtics were 20-40 from three-point range in Game 3, and the rout was on.
This was the type of performance Boston fans were expecting. Now, can they keep it going?
New York has got to do something different to stop the Celtics momentum, but there’s no easy answer to outside shooting like this. It’s not like the ’80s, where you could maul someone on a fast break. The Knicks can’t clothesline Jayson Tatum taking a 28-foot three.
I think Boston doesn’t shoot quite as well as they did Saturday, but it’s still good enough. New York will hang in there, but not enough to cover.
The Pick: Celtics -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Timberwolves at Warriors Game 4 Odds
My favorite data point of the day is that the Wolves have covered eight of their last 10 road playoff games after a win.
Game 3 was ugly, but Minnesota found a way to take a 2-1 series lead. The Wolves are 6-2 against the spread during the playoffs, Golden State 4-6. Minnesota is laying 5.5 points tonight, and the total is way down at 200.
Both teams have been good under bets these playoffs (they’re a combined 7-11 over/under), and seven of the Wolves last eight road games have gone under.
Wolves at Warriors Game 4 Pick for Game 4
Golden State had everything sort of go their way in Game 3 without Curry, but still couldn’t get the W. Jonathan Kuminga had a playoff career-high 30, Jimmy Butler played like “Playoff Jimmy” but the Warriors just don’t have the same offensive firepower without Curry.
Curry is already ruled out for this one. He goes back to the doctor on Tuesday. Game 5 is Wednesday in Minnesota. I know if his team is down 3-1, Curry will probably play.
And I think that’s where we’re heading. Minnesota hasn’t looked great at times, but Naz Reid has given them a huge boost off the bench, and there’s no way Golden State gets the same contributions from everyone that they got in Game 3.
The pick: Wolves -5.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
