After six months of the regular season and six weeks of the NBA Playoffs, the 2025 NBA Finals are set as the Thunder take on the Pacers. Basketball fans will be treated with a fresh look as OKC makes its first Finals trip in 13 years, while Indiana is competing for a title for the first time since 2000.
The Thunder and Pacers have proven to be basketball’s best two teams during this postseason, and now they’re the last two standing. With 26-year-old MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way for OKC and 25-year-old maestro Tyrese Haliburton setting the table for Indiana, the matchup could also provide a glimpse into the league’s future powers.
Here’s more on what to expect from this year’s Finals, including where each team can find an advantage.
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Pacers vs. Thunder prediction
Looking beyond market size, there is the potential for a very fun and competitive NBA Finals. After the last two Finals were decided in five games, basketball fans are due.
Oklahoma City has far and away been the cream of the crop this season, winning a franchise-record 68 games by a historically great average margin of victory. For the most part, the Thunder have kept that dominance up in the postseason, using home court advantage to their advantage, winning eight playoff games at home by an average margin of 29.1 points.
That trend continued during the Western Conference Finals, as OKC dominated defensively en route to a 124-94 closeout victory over the Timberwolves. The Thunder’s defensive identity has been their calling card, with All-Defensive selections Luguentz Dort and Jalen Williams headlining a fearsome defensive unit that also features the frontcourt duo of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, with Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace coming off the bench.
To date, OKC’s biggest playoff test came in the second round against Denver, but the young Thunder team grew up in real-time and has applied those lessons ever since.
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Good as the Thunder have been throughout the season, the Pacers have been comparably dominant since the calendar flipped to 2025.
With their five-game series win over the Knicks, the Pacers are now 12-3 in the postseason, improving their overall record to 46-17 in the new year. The mark is not too far off from the Thunder’s 53-13 mark in 2025.
Haliburton has led the way, but the Pacers have been a sum of all the parts with contributions from across the board. All-Star Pascal Siakam’s championship DNA has impacted the entire roster, and the team has enjoyed the contributions of starters Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, and Myles Turner, while their rotation of reserves has seemingly taken turns being impactful.
Above all else, this Pacers unit can never be counted out. Led by head coach Rick Carlisle, Indiana has defied odds through comebacks and series wins despite being counted out as an underdog. This time, however, Mark Daigneault’s Oklahoma City team will provide challenges unlike anything from the Eastern Conference bracket.
The Thunder will be expected to win this one handily, but the Pacers’ never-say-die attitude will make things interesting, and the series should be a competitive one.
Prediction: Thunder in 6
Pacers vs. Thunder betting odds
The Thunder (-700) are massive favorites to win the series against the Pacers (+500), per BetMGM.
Pacers vs. Thunder regular season series
The Thunder swept the season series, 2-0.
- Dec. 26, 2024: Thunder 120, Pacers 114
- March 29, 2025: Thunder 132, Pacers 111
The first meeting came during Haliburton’s well-documented early-season struggles. He was limited to four points on 2-of-6 shooting, but the Pacers kept things close through the game’s final minutes. Gilgeous-Alexander erupted for 45 points in a game that notably did not feature Oklahoma City’s Caruso and Holmgren, or Indiana’s Nesmith.
Things weren’t as close when the teams met in late March. Gilgeous-Alexander scored an efficient 33 points in 31 minutes as OKC cruised to a 21-point win despite again being without Holmgren. Haliburton was better, scoring 18 points on 50.0 percent shooting, but the Pacers had no answer for the league MVP.
Pacers vs. Thunder key storylines
Who gets the SGA assignment?
It may have been a small two-game sample size, but Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 39.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 8.0 assists while shooting 55.6 percent from the field and 63.6 percent from 3-point range against Indiana this season.
Do they have an answer?
The Pacers have faced some of the NBA’s most prolific players during the playoffs, dealing with Giannis Antetokounmpo in the first round, Donovan Mitchell in the semifinals, and Jalen Brunson in the East Finals. While the 6-11 Antetokounmpo provides unique challenges of his own, Indiana’s approach to Mitchell and Brunson could provide an idea of what to expect in the Finals.
Tricky as matchup data can be, NBA.com Stats show that Nembhard took the task of guarding the 6-3 Mitchell more than anyone else. In the conference finals, Nesmith guarded the 6-2 Brunson more than any other Pacer.
Gilgeous-Alexander is listed at 6-6, which means he brings different challenges than the above prolific guards. During the regular season, Nesmith only appeared in one of the two meetings between OKC and Indiana, and Nembhard drew the assignment.
While Gilgeous-Alexander and Nembhard share plenty of familiarity from growing up together in Ontario, Canada and playing together for Team Canada, matchup data shows that SGA shot 11-of-18 (61.1 percent) from the field when guarded by his naional team teammate.
Simply put: No one Pacer can handle the Gilgeous-Alexander-Alexander assignment, but if it is Nembhard that is given the matchup, he will need to stay out of foul trouble and lean on the help of his teammates.
MORE: Why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was named Western Conference Finals MVP
Can the Pacers’ offense handle the Thunder’s defensive pressure?
Indiana hasn’t lost much during this postseason, but there is a marked difference in its offensive efficiency in wins vs. losses.
The Pacers are at their best when the ball is flowing and the team is running up and down the court, evidenced by how they defeated each of their first three opponents. Given the makeup of the Thunder’s roster, that might not fly.
The starting unit leads the way, but Indiana can go 10 or 11 deep. Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin have consistently contributed off the bench, while Tony Bradley, Thomas Bryant and Ben Sheppard have each had moments off the bench in the playoffs.
That depth has long given Indiana the ability to wear down opposing defenses, but the Thunder can also go 10 or 11 players deep.
OKC boasted the league’s best defense during the regular season and through the first three rounds of the playoffs. It has the terrifying blend of elite individual defenders and a principled defensive scheme that often results in plenty of turnovers.
Haliburton has garnered a reputation for his pristine record of taking care of the ball, but the Thunder will work to make him uncomfortable and force some uncharacteristic giveaways. If Haliburton can remain unfazed, the Pacers’ offense can continue to flow optimally.
Should OKC make life difficult for Haliburton, it could be a very long series for Indiana.
MORE: How Tyrese Haliburton made NBA history in Game 4 of Eastern Conference Finals
Pacers vs. Thunder schedule
| Date | Game | Time (ET) | TV channel |
| June 5 | Game 1 at Thunder | 8:30 p.m. | ABC |
| June 8 | Game 2 at Thunder | 8 p.m. | ABC |
| June 11 | Game 3 at Pacers | 8:30 p.m. | ABC |
| June 13 | Game 4 at Pacers | 8:30 p.m. | ABC |
| June 16 | Game 5 at Thunder* | 8:30 p.m. | ABC |
| June 19 | Game 6 at Pacers* | 8:30 p.m. | ABC |
| June 22 | Game 7 at Thunder* | 8 p.m. | ABC |
* If necessary
