The NBA postseason is in high gear, with the game’s greatest stars jousting with one another in the hope of securing the all-important Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy.
At the opposite end of the NBA standings, another battle is underway — the NBA Draft lottery, which enters its 40th year of existence in 2025.
The league’s 14 worst sides are slated to take part in the spectacle, each hoping to land a gleaming gemstone: the No. 1 overall pick.
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Not all No. 1 selections are the same. This year’s lottery features quite the heirloom at the top of the draft board, with Duke star Cooper Flagg all but certain to hear his name first come June’s NBA Draft.
Flagg hopes to join other standouts like Victor Wembanyama, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Tim Duncan, and Shaquille O’Neal as No. 1 picks who took their employers to new heights. Those competing for the chance to select first overall are hoping he does so, too. But their fate, and that of the various NBA franchises watching on with bated breath, comes down to a few ping pong balls.
Just how does the draft lottery work in the NBA? And which sides have the best chance at securing Flagg’s services? The Sporting News has the rundown.
How does the NBA Draft Lottery work?
The 14 sides that missed out on playoff contention are assigned an odds percentage based on their position in the end-of-year standings.
The worse the team finished, the better their chances are at picking first overall, although odds are even for each of the three worst teams in the league in a given season.
The draft lottery features four draws: one for pick No. 1, one for pick No. 2, one for pick No. 3, and the last for pick No. 4.
At the draft lottery, there will be two draws: one for the No. 1 pick and one for No. 2. This is a change from three drawings in the past for the top three picks.
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NBA Draft Lottery rules
For much of the lottery’s history, draft odds were fairly intuitive. The team with the worst record in the league sported the best chances at landing the No. 1 pick.
There were wrinkles in that designation, to be fair. The first few iterations of the draft lottery gave non-playoff teams the same chances of picking first overall. In the early 1990s, the NBA reformed its draft model, using a weighted system to give priority to the league’s cellar dwellers.
In 2019, the Association served up another amendment. Tanking had run rife in the years ahead of the 2019 NBA Draft, with the 76ers consistently fielding historically bad rosters in the hopes of building a Murderer’s Row of young talent. With Zion Williamson — the presumptive No. 1 pick — waiting in the wings, the NBA leveled out draft odds, giving the three worst teams in the league equal odds of picking first.
NBA Draft Lottery odds 2025
The Jazz, Wizards, and Hornets hold the joint-best odds of landing that vaunted No. 1 selection, with each side possessing a 14 percent chance of picking first. They also have the highest chance of securing a top-four pick — all three franchises hold 52.1 percent chance of drafting inside the top four.
You can find the complete list of odds for the No. 1 pick below.
| Team | No. 1 pick odds |
| Jazz | 14.0% |
| Wizards | 14.0% |
| Hornets | 14.0% |
| Pelicans | 12.5% |
| 76ers* | 10.5% |
| Nets | 9.0% |
| Raptors | 7.5% |
| Spurs | 6.0% |
| Rockets (via Suns) | 3.8% |
| Trail Blazers | 3.7% |
| Mavericks | 1.8% |
| Bulls | 1.7% |
| Kings** | 0.8% |
| Spurs (via Hawks) | 0.7% |
*If the 76ers’ selection falls out of the top-7, the Thunder will receive the pick as part of the Al Horford trade.
**If the Kings selection falls out of the top-12, the Hawks will receive the pick as part of the Kevin Huerter trade.
