After weeks of rumors connecting Corbin Burnes to the San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays, the Arizona Diamondbacks shocked the baseball world by landing the four-time All-Star on a six-year, $210 million deal this winter.
The 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner will now headline one of Major League Baseball’s best rotations as the Diamondbacks look to return to their second World Series in three years. Yet one of the reasons the Diamondbacks signed Burnes is the uncertainty surrounding their former ace Zac Gallen. The 29-year-old Gallen is entering a contract year looking to rebound from posting his highest ERA (3.65) and making his fewest starts (29) since 2021.
Despite a slight step back last season, Gallen remains one of the most dependable starters in baseball and is just two years removed from a third-place Cy Young finish. Though his stuff will never be confused with Pittsburgh Pirates superstar Paul Skenes, Gallen is able to command a five-pitch mix that is headlined by one of baseball’s best curveballs. The pitch held batters to a .148 batting average and induced a 39.2% whiff rates, providing hope that the breaker can remain effective into the second half of Gallen’s career.
The big question surrounding Gallen is whether his other four pitches will hold up, especially his low 90s fastball that opponents batted .280 off last year. CBS Sports writer R.J. Anderson believes that may be enough to slightly diminish Gallen’s value, projecting him to land a five-year, $160 million deal next winter.
“A potential value deflater with Gallen has to do with how tepidly the pitch-quality models view his arsenal,” wrote Anderson. “Clearly that hasn’t prevented him from being a top starter for the duration of his career. All the same, I do wonder if some teams might not have the stomach to bet on it continuing. Anyway, for now I’m expecting a similar contract to what (Blake) Snell received here, too.”
Like Gallen, Snell had some questions as he entered the free-agent market, including a sky-high walk rate and a lengthy injury history, which resulted in him landing a five-year, $182 million deal from the Los Angeles Dodgers that was significantly less than the deal Burnes and New York Yankees left-hander Max Fried received. Yet considering Gallen will enter the open market at 29 as opposed to Snell at 31, it would be disappointing for Gallen to receive a deal for less than $200 million. A rebound season in 2025 would likely result in him getting closer to the eight-year, $218 million deal Fried signed this offseason.
More MLB: Bleacher Report projects Blue Jays will replace Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with prospect
