MLB Preseason Power Rankings: Where is your favorite team starting the 2025 season?

By Grant Brisbee, Andy McCullough and Stephen J. Nesbitt

Every week,​ we​ ask a selected group of our baseball​ writers​ — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results.

It’s been 139 days since the New York Yankees fumbled Game 5 of the World Series and the Los Angeles Dodgers were crowned champions. Offseason transactions transformed the look of several contenders. The Dodgers loaded up for a title defense. The Yankees lost a superstar and an ace. The Mets spent big in free agency. The Red Sox ponied up, too. And the Diamondbacks gave a Cy Young Award winner 210,000,000 reasons to stay home in Arizona.

With the curtain rising on the 2025 MLB season Tuesday in Tokyo, and as offseason projections give way to real wins and losses, it’s time for our first crack at The Athletic’s MLB Power Rankings. We’ll refresh the rankings each week during the regular season.

Here’s a primer on all 30 teams and their current playoff odds, courtesy of Austin Mock’s MLB projection model.

Playoff odds: 97.6 percent

If I had bought The Athletic before the New York Times did, I would have started a running gag where the Dodgers finished second or third in every power ranking. It would have been a constant stream of “Yes, they’re good, but I need to see more,” while picking the tiniest of nits. Like, get this, they optioned Hyeseong Kim to the minors after signing him to a three-year, $12.5 million deal. The best team in baseball can’t make scouting mistakes like that! Season over.

As is, the Dodgers are obviously the best team in baseball, and they’re the best team I’ve seen in the 30 years I’ve been following the sport closely. Of course they’re in the top spot. — Grant Brisbee

Playoff odds: 90.1 percent

The projection systems love the Braves, in part because it’s so difficult to project the number of injuries the team absorbed last season. As Atlanta awaits the return of star outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. and budding ace Spencer Strider, the club expects bounce-back seasons from former All-Stars such as first baseman Matt Olson and third baseman Austin Riley. The team will be fortunate if new addition Jurickson Profar can catalyze the lineup as he did for San Diego last season. Profar was the biggest expenditure for a team that still believes in the talent on its roster and the production of its farm system. — Andy McCullough

Playoff odds: 43.9 percent

If you’re surprised by their showing here — they did miss the postseason last year, after all — ask yourself who deserves the spot more. The Phillies, maybe. The Mets and Red Sox after their nine-figure additions, perhaps. But the Diamondbacks had the best offense in baseball by several metrics last season, and they added a legitimate ace in Corbin Burnes.

A majority of voters in this exercise said they were the third-best team in baseball, and the math checks out from here. Just imagine if Jordan Montgomery is the pitcher he was in every season except the last one. — Brisbee

Playoff odds: 78.4 percent

Despite owner John Middleton advocating for changes after an early October exit, the Phillies didn’t do much this winter. And that might not be a problem. Unable to trade away third baseman Alec Bohm, Philadelphia will hope he can replicate his first-half production from 2024. The team has the best starting rotation in the National League, with Grapefruit League observers chattering about Cristopher Sánchez potentially joining Zack Wheeler as a co-ace this season. If former Marlin Jesús Luzardo can stay healthy, the rotation will be even stronger. — McCullough

Playoff odds: 69.7 percent

The Juan Soto Era can now commence in Queens. The superlatively talented slugger aided the Yankees to the American League pennant last season. Can he do the same for the Mets this year? The club will not be able to replicate the exact magic of their “OMG” summer, not with José Quintana on the Brewers and Sean Manaea opening the season on the injured list. But most of the gang from last year’s NLCS squad is back. The two biggest additions came from across town: Soto and former Yankees closer Clay Holmes, who has converted to starting. The three-team race in the National League East should be fierce. — McCullough

Playoff odds: 46.3 percent

The Red Sox quietly put together an excellent winter. It was quiet because the club missed out on Juan Soto and didn’t hand out a nine-figure contract to a starting pitcher. But the additions of Alex Bregman, Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler should push Boston into the heart of the American League East race. The incoming prospect class featuring Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer could begin to pay dividends as early as this year, too. — McCullough

Playoff odds: 70.4 percent

The past few months have not gone well for the franchise. They were defeated and clowned by the Dodgers in the World Series. Juan Soto bolted for the Mets. And after an effective offseason pivot involving Max Fried, Cody Bellinger and Devin Williams, the spring went sour. Gerrit Cole underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery. Luis Gil, the reigning American League Rookie of the Year, hurt his lat. The Yankees should still contend. But the path looks rockier now. — McCullough

Playoff odds: 58 percent

It speaks to the roster’s overall strength that the Astros could trade away one of the most valuable players in the league and still rank this high. However, a follow-up question regarding this strategy might be something like, “Say, did you consider keeping one of the most valuable players in the league?” or “What if you kept one of the most valuable players in the league and then tried to add other ones?”

Instead of running away with the AL West, though, they’ll be in a scrum with the Mariners and Rangers. While I’ll still take the Astros in my preseason predictions, some of the other voters in this exercise aren’t as convinced. That kind of doubt is absolutely justified, and it didn’t have to be this way.  — Brisbee

Playoff odds: 56.8 percent

Did Baltimore do enough this offseason to augment its homegrown core? That question will be answered over the next few months, and Mike Elias will have another chance to enhance the roster at the summertime deadline. Baltimore shied away from high-priced pitchers in favor of one-year pacts with veteran Charlie Morton and NPB star Tomoyuki Sugano. The spring included injuries for Grayson Rodriguez, the starter expected to fill some of the void left by Corbin Burnes, and reliever Andrew Kittredge. The Orioles still have so much position-player talent, with room for growth for many, including former top prospect Jackson Holliday. — McCullough

GO DEEPER

With Gerrit Cole lost, the AL East is wide open and the American League is up for grabs

Playoff odds: 40 percent

One of the hardest teams in baseball to nail down, if not the hardest. To buy into them fully, you have to buy into Jacob deGrom being healthy, especially with Tyler Mahle and Cody Bradford ailing. You have to assume good things from their youngest players, especially the mercurial Evan Carter, and some of the aging hitters.

The Rangers could win it all, or they could finish six games under .500. That’s what they did in the past two seasons, with the caveat that it’s a lot easier to do the latter than the former. — Brisbee

Playoff odds: 92.4 percent

Think of the Mariners as a high school junior with a 99th percentile SAT score and an A in AP Chemistry, History and Spanish. But they have a D in P.E. because they never brought their gym clothes. They’re taking the easiest elective allowed — beginning triangle — but they missed the final while in the bathroom. Their parents were thinking Gudger College, but the kid might not even graduate high school.

The Mariners did the hard part. They assembled an outstanding rotation that goes five deep, a nearly impossible achievement in the modern game. All they had to do this offseason was get some better hitters. Instead, they hung out in the bathroom and screwed around on their phone. Maybe they’ll figure it out in community college, but they can forget about Gudger. — Brisbee

Playoff odds: 56.5 percent

Finally, a Central division team. The Cubs clearly improved this offseason, counting Kyle Tucker, Ryan Pressly, Matthew Boyd and Justin Turner among their many additions to the major-league roster. They still project as just an 84-win team, according to FanGraphs, but when no other NL Central team projects to break .500, well, that .516 might get the job done. Given that Tucker is a free agent this fall, the Cubs may come to regret not pushing the chips in and betting big this winter. If you only get one shot with Tucker, it had better work. — Stephen J. Nesbitt

Playoff odds: 46.1 percent

It took a few years, but we’re approaching power-ranking Padres exhaustion. Are they good? Are they overrated? Are they coasting on the strength of previous expectations? They were the team on the rise for so long, and then they looked like a cautionary tale, and then they were a win away from bouncing the Dodgers last season. They contain multitudes, all of them disappointing on some level.

That’s why it’s easy to overlook the talent on the roster and focus on their austere offseason, in which they replaced Jurickson Profar’s four-win season with a Jason Heyward/Connor Joe platoon and added Nick Pivetta to replace the innings that Joe Musgrove gave them last year. Look at the players they still have on the roster, though. It won’t be enough to challenge the Dodgers in the regular season, but it could be enough to help them mess with the league in the postseason again. — Brisbee

Playoff odds: 29.6 percent

For the Rays, this season will be about location, location, location. A summer spent at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa figures to be eventful. The schedule has been altered to avoid the dampest months, but the weather will still intervene. The future of the franchise is up for grabs. The present is also more muddled than usual. The team is eager to get back top-flight pitchers like Shane McClanahan and Shane Baz. — McCullough

GO DEEPER

Rays pull out of ballpark project, leaving St. Petersburg future uncertain

Playoff odds: 23.7 percent

We have managed to doubt the Brewers again. Last spring, after losing Corbin Burnes and Craig Counsell, they ranked 22nd in our preseason power rankings. Naturally, Milwaukee won the division and made its sixth postseason appearance in the past seven years. In our defense, the Brewers did little to improve the roster this winter — their most notable move was trading closer Devin Williams for Nestor Cortes and a prospect. But if they stay healthy, the roster still has all the ingredients to prove us wrong again. — Nesbitt

Playoff odds: 62 percent

Here’s what I wrote in this space before last season: The Twins are not “better,” if that’s what you’re wondering. But they’re still the team to beat in the AL Central.

The first sentence still applies, but not the second. The Twins nosedived in the final stretch last season to finish fourth in the division. They enter 2025 with a familiar roster and two familiar concerns: Can Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis (who strained his hamstring on Sunday) stay healthy? And will ownership invest more anytime soon? The Twins have some star power, a solid pitching staff and several exciting youngsters on the rise, but the clock is ticking. — Nesbitt

Playoff odds: 29.9 percent

Despite declining to make a splash this offseason, Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris managed to carry the good vibes from October into the spring. The kids are here and ready to play. The oldest hitters in the Tigers’ projected lineup are 29-year-old Jake Rogers and 28-year-old Gleyber Torres; six regulars are 25 or younger. That’s a lot of unproven bats and upside. Harris signed Jack Flaherty and Alex Cobb to slot in behind reigning Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal in the rotation and strengthened the bullpen. — Nesbitt

GO DEEPER

MLB Extension Week: What would it take to lock up Skubal, Henderson and more?

Playoff odds: 31.9 percent

No, the winter did not go the way Toronto hoped. The team could not land Juan Soto or Roki Sasaki. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did not sign an extension. Shohei Ohtani, of course, never got on that plane. Their subsequent moves offered up only more questions. Will the addition of Anthony Santander jolt the lineup? What does Max Scherzer have left? Will the team make the most of what could be Guerrero’s final season as a Blue Jay? — McCullough

GO DEEPER

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seeks contract worth $500 million in present value: Sources

Playoff odds: 46.8 percent

It’s safe to assume the Royals will not improve by another 30 wins this season, but when you have Bobby Witt Jr., don’t rule anything out. After a flurry of free-agent additions last offseason and further adds at the trade deadline, the Royals were quiet this winter. They acquired Jonathan India and Carlos Estévez and brought back Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen. The rotation should still be strong, and the bullpen is vastly improved from this time last year, but the back half of the lineup sure drops off sharply. — Nesbitt

Playoff odds: 34.5 percent

Aggressively acceptable. Preternaturally OK. Diabolically decent-ish. These labels have a lot to do with the division they play in, as they’re probably the fourth-best team in the NL West, but would have a real chance to win the AL Central. Part of it has to do with a lack of an extra middle-of-the-order threat or two.

Robbie Ray and Justin Verlander have looked excellent in the Cactus League and if they keep it up, the Giants shouldn’t have to score 900 runs to contend. They should try for 700, though, and it might be a struggle for them to get there without a couple of lineup surprises. — Brisbee

Playoff odds: 29.7 percent

The Guardians rode timely hitting and a suffocating bullpen to an ALCS appearance last fall, so putting them below every AL Central team except the White Sox is a low blow. But if the Cleveland front office really cared about our preseason power rankings, they’d have swung bigger this winter. Instead, it was out with Josh Naylor and Andrés Giménez, in with Carlos Santana and Luis Ortiz, and that was about it. It’s not a bad roster, and David Fry and Shane Bieber will join when their elbows allow, but question marks abound. — Brisbee

Playoff odds: 14.6 percent

In the past 12 months, the baseball universe came to know that not only was Paul Skenes the right pick at No. 1 in the 2023 MLB Draft, but also he might take over as the top pitcher in the sport. And yet, the Pirates are in nearly the same position as last year’s preseason rankings. The Buccos had a bafflingly boring offseason, choosing to address their anemic offseason by re-signing Andrew McCutchen and acquiring Spencer Horwitz (who then had wrist surgery), Tommy Pham and Adam Frazier. That’s an underwhelming upgrade, if it is one at all. — Nesbitt

GO DEEPER

From Paul Skenes to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., extensions to get done now and ones that can wait

Playoff odds: 14.6 percent

After a season decimated by injury, the Reds hired Terry Francona to manage a roster that has top-end talent — Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Hunter Greene — and took a step forward this offseason with the addition of Gavin Lux, Austin Hays and Brady Singer, among others. With better health outcomes, there are reasons to believe in this Cincinnati club. Still, there remain unproven hitters, injury-prone starting pitchers and a middling bullpen that must contend with spending half the season in a hitter’s ballpark. — Nesbitt

Playoff odds: 25.4 percent

After an offseason defined by what they didn’t do, the Cardinals are stuck in between. Feels familiar. Last year, St. Louis had a minus-47 run differential but finished 83-79. Pretty bad. Not all the way there. They still have Nolan Arenado and Ryan Helsley — for now — and so you look at this roster and see a lot of bonafide big leaguers — former top prospects, former All-Stars. The odds that it all clicks in unison this time are vanishingly low. It’s far more likely to be another so-so season as John Mozeliak prepares to hand the reins to Chaim Bloom. — Nesbitt

Playoff odds: 15.5 percent

I mean, maybe? It’s not a bad team, and they spent the offseason giving contracts out to players who might be with the team if/when they move to Las Vegas, which is the kind of good-faith effort the clubhouse hasn’t seen in years. In a division with mostly flawed teams, it could go further than you think. Maybe the hearty folks in the Almond Capital of the World will get behind the team and help push them into the postseason. There are a lot of legitimate major leaguers on the roster. Stranger teams have found their way in.

Stranger situations are hard to come by, though. So here’s hoping for an A’s/Rays ALCS, which would be incredible on multiple levels. It’s unlikely, but so are a lot of things in this silly sport. — Brisbee

Playoff odds: 3.5 percent

Washington did the same thing as last offseason, taking a bunch of fliers on buy-low free agents to fill out its roster. Nathaniel Lowe could be an intriguing trade candidate if he can rediscover his power stroke. The club appears bound for a fourth-place finish, at best, even with the ascension of James Wood and Dylan Crews to the middle of the lineup. On the plus side, the farm system is getting better and the TV situation has finally been resolved. — McCullough

Playoff odds: 13.4 percent

Hello. I’m assuming that if you’re reading this, you’re an Angels fan. You sighed when you clicked the link, but you were expressionless as you scrolled to the bottom out of habit. You aren’t expecting optimism. You’re expecting … anti-optimism. I’ll bet the Germans have a word for that sort of feeling.

And, you know what? You get the optimism. No, they won’t be contenders, but Mike Trout is still just 33, and I’m choosing to believe he’ll stay healthy this year. No logic or rationale, just vibes. If that happens? Angels fans will have more fun this season than a lot of fans. Team wins are cool, but individual greatness can make the sport just as fun. Almost as fun. Still pretty fun? One of those. — Brisbee

Playoff odds: 1.1 percent

Sandy Alcantara is healthy. Max Meyer is healthy. Ryan Weathers is somehow still just 25. As for the lineup … did we mention that Alcantara is healthy? It’s not the first time in recent years that Miami entered a season with a collection of promising young pitchers. They probably won’t be enough to spark contention, especially if Alcantara gets moved at the trade deadline, but there is at least some hope. — McCullough

Playoff odds: 0.3 percent

There were rumors of the Rockies playing 162 baseball games last year, but there is no hard evidence to support them. They’re scheduled to play 162 games this year, but that’s still theoretical at this point. In June, someone will snap a picture of a blurry cryptid in a Rockies uniform and claim it as proof, but it will hardly be definitive. We’ll never know if the Rockies played baseball last season, or if they’ll play it (again?) this season.

We do know where they’ll rank among the various powers in baseball, though. Right about here. Forever. — Brisbee

Playoff odds: 0.3 percent

Last season began with rumors of relocation to Nashville and ended with the White Sox recording more losses than any team in the modern era. Could it get any worse?

That’s a dangerous question. With Garrett Crochet gone and Luis Robert Jr. liable to be traded anytime he hits a hot streak, this roster is worse than it was a year ago. That’s quite a feat, really. It’ll be a long year for the White Sox. And until top prospects like Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel and Noah Schultz join the big-league club, fans will be watching for news of a different sort of call-up: Justin Ishbia’s potential move from minority owner to controlling owner. — Nesbitt

(Top photo of Corbin Carroll: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)