Hard to believe, but through 16 games of the 2025 season, the Braves have won just five times. One of those victories came last night against the Blue Jays, and the two clubs will square off again tonight in Toronto.
The Braves pounded three home runs and crossed the plate eight times and have started to show signs of life at the dish over the past week. After a horrendous start, Atlanta is averaging five runs per game over their last seven outings and have a solid track record versus Jays starter Kevin Gausman.
MLB Player Props Picks for April 15
Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-128 at FanDuel)
Current Braves batters boast a .310 average against Gausman, with Austin Riley, last night’s hero, leading the way. Riley is a potential target in the player props market tonight, but the other option is to fade Gusman. The 34-year-old is fresh off a 10-strikeout performance, but that looks like a major outlier.
For starters, his previous two starts yielded just a combined 4 K’s through 11.1 innings. Gausman’s K/9 rate fell to 8.1 last season, his lowest mark since he pitched for Atlanta in 2018. This year, despite his double-digit strikeout performance, he’s producing career lows in swinging strike rate and chase rate. The 10 K outing came against the Red Sox, who strike out at the league’s highest rate.
Atlanta is much closer to league average in that category and fanned only four times in the series opener. You can get -128 odds that Gausman falls short of 6 strikeouts tonight, a bet that’s definitely worth making.
Jack Flaherty Over 16.5 Outs (-125 at DraftKings)
Our next target is the Tigers Jack Flaherty to exceed 16.5 outs versus the Brewers. Flaherty has been one of the best pitchers in baseball through three starts and is catching the Milwaukee bats at precisely the right time.
The Brewers have crossed the plate two times or less in three of their last five outings. They managed just one run and five hits last night against the Tigers and have a miserable track record versus Flaherty.
Detroit’s righty has held current Milwaukee bats to a .208 average over 77 at-bats, with a whopping 32% strikeout rate. Christian Yelich has been Flaherty’s most frequent victim, striking out 10 times in 33 at-bats.
As for Flaherty, he’s averaged 17 outs over his three starts, allowing only three runs. He’s fanned 21 batters so far, while enemy hitters are batting a pathetic .155 against him this season.
