It was a disappointing split on Saturday’s MLB player props card after Zack Wheeler was pulled early in the middle of a dominating performance against the Pirates. Our Corbin Carroll bet was a winner, and we should be kicking ourselves for not targeting more Diamondbacks hitters against German Marquez and the Rockies.
The Colorado hurler has been a cash cow to wager against over the last few seasons, and wound up surrendering 7 hits and 5 runs in only three innings. Nevertheless, Sunday is a new day and another opportunity to bet against the woeful Rockies. This time, we’re targeting Arizona starter Merrill Kelly and getting some very favorable odds to do so.
MLB Player Prop Picks for May 18
MLB Player Prop Pick #1: Merrill Kelly Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+125 at DraftKings)
Kelly is fresh off his best outing of the season and is +125 to allow fewer than 2 earned runs. He threw 7 innings of 1-run ball earlier this week against a much more potent Giants lineup, and has kept the opposition below 2 earned runs in four of his past six outings.
Kelly has plenty of history against the hitters in the Colorado lineup, posting a tremendous amount of success. He’s limited those batters to a .192/.238/.354 slash line over 99 at-bats, with a 30% strikeout rate.
The Rockies exploded on offense on Saturday, but all indications are that it was an outlier performance. Colorado enters the day ranked bottom-five in baseball in scoring, batting average, slugging, and OPS, despite playing half of their games at hitter-friendly Coors Field.
On the road, they’ve been especially inept. The Rockies are slashing .198/.261/.315 away from home, averaging 2.5 runs per game.
MLB Player Prop Pick #2: Max Kepler Under 0.5 Hits (+130 at Bet365)
Our next target is another plus-money wager. We’re fading Philly’s Max Kepler, as he’s +130 to go hitless against Paul Skenes and the Pirates.
Skenes is having an underwhelming season so far by his standards, but he’s still one of the top pitchers in baseball. His K/9 rate is down, but he’s still limiting hard contact. Opponents are making hard contact on just 28.8% of their at-bats, which is among the lowest rates in MLB.
He still commands a 98+ mile per hour fastball and sinker, and is generating swings and misses on 12% of his pitches. Skenes is fresh off one of his best starts of the season, throwing 6 innings of 1-run ball versus the high-powered Mets. He’s yielded 2 runs or less in all but two of his nine starts, while allowing only 0.74 hits per inning.
Kepler, meanwhile, is literally the coldest hitter in baseball. He’s slashing 0.53/.100/0.53 this week, smacking just 1 hit in 19 at-bats. The German is hitless in nine of his past 12 games overall, including both contests this weekend against Pittsburgh. A date with Skenes is not a recipe to fix his current woes.
